tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-57470728937561207122024-03-14T03:19:23.812+11:00Bushfire - fact, fiction and other information relevant to living with bushfire in Australia.Original objective of this blog was to raise bushfire knowledge and assist Victorians seeking approval to build in a bushfire prone area. Lately, I’ve concluded that state government and some councils only reinforce <i>bushfire mythology</i>, neglect their fire prevention responsibilities and fail to implement a full PPRR risk management approach to mitigating bushfire, shortcomings proven in the devastation of Wye River–Separation Creek on Christmas Day 2015 and Yarloop, WA, on 7 January 2016. bushfireaustraliahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11517140957697336597noreply@blogger.comBlogger62125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5747072893756120712.post-2275744313673815652023-10-24T13:33:00.467+11:002023-11-01T22:21:41.668+11:00Bushfire and terror<P>While keeping in touch with developments in the Israel-Gaza military conflict and aftermath of the Hamas raid into Southern Israel I heard a relatively brief opinion of “terror”.</P>
<P>I searched the web for terror-related information and finally settled on a definition in the Macquarie Dictionary, Fifth Edition:<br>
1. intense, sharp, overpowering fear: to be frantic with terror.<br>
2. a feeling, instance or cause of intense fear.
<P>Started me thinking about meaning and forms of terror and how it may be created and used to advantage.<P>
<P>Within the definition there is also a reference to a political group using violence to maintain or achieve supremacy. A recent example was the activities of Hamas on the ground inside Southern Israel.
<P>The definition of terror-stricken is relevant:<br>
- smitten with terror; terrified
<P>No doubt many will have seen media coverage of people attending the music festival in Southern Israel running to escape the Hamas shooters.
<P>As I write I'm hearing of a severe bushfire situation in Southern Queensland while the attention of our media is distracted by broader regional and economic situations affecting Australia.
<P>This causes me to think about Australians in areas threatened by bushfire being urged to leave their homes and businesses — some Australian states, but thankfully not Victoria, have mandatory evacuation legislation.
<P>For several years, emergency management agencies have urging people to leave for an ostensibly safer place when bushfire reaches a certain level of threat. But, are we told why?
<P>Urged or mandatory evacuations can create risk situations where unattended properties are lost to bushfire, why, because most building fire loss is due to ember or firebrand attack!
<P>How then is a decision made to advise voluntary or mandatory evacuation?
<P>At one level of the Australian Fire Danger Rating System (AFDRS) people are advised to leave, then only a few minutes later informed that it’s too late to leave and to shelter in place. This must be confusing, leading to unnecessary fear in some. How do those who wish to leave to now learn that it’s too late to leave cope with this? It must be unnerving and potentially result in injury or death for some unprepared individual.
<P><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLaL6I4eYGmgPEuoMT0bC92rHlrk0eATUV4WSt3DmuYEzGfJsPc2LWyOQNhC3xs2S4g3BaGeoFiRaSWDIsJtRoyuanos33xyr8jenQJkf1ftVW5VqUVry6ejgKdLxiDSSrqUbKEEqJlhoLPB8emfb2gCLV1NTjS3avbA7oDnGaYh-pUZJS_kGBhgphww3q/s1042/ABC%20Qld.JPG" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" width="400" data-original-height="696" data-original-width="1042" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLaL6I4eYGmgPEuoMT0bC92rHlrk0eATUV4WSt3DmuYEzGfJsPc2LWyOQNhC3xs2S4g3BaGeoFiRaSWDIsJtRoyuanos33xyr8jenQJkf1ftVW5VqUVry6ejgKdLxiDSSrqUbKEEqJlhoLPB8emfb2gCLV1NTjS3avbA7oDnGaYh-pUZJS_kGBhgphww3q/s400/ABC%20Qld.JPG"/></a></div>
<center>Plate 1</center>
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<span class="CharacterStyle1"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 9.0pt;"><center>From an ABC story "Sixteen homes lost in Tara as Queensland bushfire emergency continues", by Scout Wallen and Laura Cocks, 26 October 2023</div></></span>
<P>To the uninitiated, media coverage of bushfires in Australia can only serve to frighten. While some will argue that it's informative <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-24/qld-fire-warnings-bushfire-emergency-tara-kogan-toowoomba/103013334">this ABC story is typical of the sensationalist reporting of bushfire.</a>
<P>The AFDRS classification “catastrophic” is a prediction of a catastrophic fire, an outcome that may never occur. Serves only to further frighten, even panic some people.
<P>Why then did Australasian Fire Authorities Council (AFAC) decide on “catastrophic”, by definition an outcome rather than a warning such as Code Red that had previously applied in Victoria and why did emergency management decision makers in Victoria abandon Code Red?
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXIG-Eqz56iO1ruK6qgrgYn-VPb0H82VwTWXmxn_FWlqFcgijM1XyFBxjt5UVx2pcyHrhFRlCkuA2Mawv2kg4eBW45NPUOs0JZlp7nsF9SCel6JnwS3XnXde48U6LCzRTFCtLtZxllU7Q6edtzI2f1XlIkXeBgJq566q0Y0Q_kPKoV9VLd8QeA6IMU3oh-/s1640/AFDRS%20251023.JPG" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" width="400" data-original-height="566" data-original-width="1640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXIG-Eqz56iO1ruK6qgrgYn-VPb0H82VwTWXmxn_FWlqFcgijM1XyFBxjt5UVx2pcyHrhFRlCkuA2Mawv2kg4eBW45NPUOs0JZlp7nsF9SCel6JnwS3XnXde48U6LCzRTFCtLtZxllU7Q6edtzI2f1XlIkXeBgJq566q0Y0Q_kPKoV9VLd8QeA6IMU3oh-/s400/AFDRS%20251023.JPG"/></a></div><center>Plate 2</center>
<P>Did those who settled on “catastrophic” do so through lack of knowledge of the English language or was intended to avoid agency or individual responsibility for loss by outsourcing the decision to the individual?
Was there any realisation that "catastrophic" as a warning or generally in the narrative was bound to add to the level of fear of fire in the broader community?
<P>Referring again to sensationalism in the media, Vladimir Lenin, former Chairman of the Council of People's Commissars of the Soviet Union, was well aware that use of the media was critical to him in seeking to control Russia: Control the media, control the people.
<P><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhexkfvIGQNlJyzFV9BeiUHdJV-g5cxQpqFyLTj4ez0fnzZqUjf-5MLNa9p7KvF_QKbA1qEhJAo4Q9hWdLXb8sGECY2RrOQO8nGQN5S511xnPdw8Zl8zcJZ9MSyC_i7oyiN0Gwc9szjI5dIGlRKLJaxF-W9TWJlcECDDH57WJ5gns5PO1Xoa3ANHHknG6mT/s999/Lenin.JPG" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" width="320" data-original-height="495" data-original-width="999" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhexkfvIGQNlJyzFV9BeiUHdJV-g5cxQpqFyLTj4ez0fnzZqUjf-5MLNa9p7KvF_QKbA1qEhJAo4Q9hWdLXb8sGECY2RrOQO8nGQN5S511xnPdw8Zl8zcJZ9MSyC_i7oyiN0Gwc9szjI5dIGlRKLJaxF-W9TWJlcECDDH57WJ5gns5PO1Xoa3ANHHknG6mT/s320/Lenin.JPG"/></a></div><center>Plate 3</center>
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<span class="CharacterStyle1"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 9.0pt;"><center>Painting of Lenin by Isaak Brodsky (Public Domain).</center></div></span></span>
<P>Do the emergency management agencies see the sensationalist media coverage of bushfire as assisting them in seeking to control rather than support the community to withstand bushfire and minimise loss?
<P>How does AFAC and for that matter the NEMA see their roles in the community, working in partnership with the broader community to withstand bushfire or frightening it into running?
<P>And, what of EMA in Victoria? It’s performance to date has been miserable e.g. Loch Sport, what was learned from the Wye River and Mallacoota experiences that I would argue saw the involved communities pushed aside, leaving town protection to fire brigade units, some of which travelled long long distances involving several hours.
<P>And, on terror, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-11-01/nsw-queensland-bushfires-wallangarra-tenterfield-tara/103046252?fbclid=IwAR07UMOZNO4N2B-aloQk3t6zdu03IuTBX6bJqCzUMIQgzQ8IxWrEKbXXg08">"Wallangarra resident Bryce Wells told the ABC he was scared for his life as the fire raced towards his home."<br>
"The wind just carried it all over here … the Sun was fiery orange, I was pretty terrified," he said.</a>
<P>To conclude, from the above story:
<P>"Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk praised the collaborative efforts of firefighters from two states for saving the community, after winds blew the bushfire to the edges of the town late yesterday afternoon."
<P>Has it ever occurred to Premier Palaszczuk to question Queenslanders responsible for emergency management how fires reached this stage, again?
<P>Once again, Australia is indebted to legions of volunteer firefighters who leave the comfort and safety of home to go chase and round up the rampaging red steer.
<P>
As always, I would welcome your feedback.
<P>
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bushfireaustraliahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11517140957697336597noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5747072893756120712.post-59947216381504000242023-02-17T10:55:00.025+11:002023-11-01T22:25:02.235+11:00Bushfire—and what of Homeland Defence?<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3AjWrqCxTAcX7_k2_Vbe0D3WwSm-omtsnjiWYSu-bCC9LVpBUpJ_xNMZOqrhzdQBKOjTbEZLZLaLgNZpU3SnaFVpouoTsWGKSJCyxols4spqiHwn070dqyrBmQVPSxBkIn3lHLOiuvcu2r6mMyV2-V6l4cEenxeijMZFP4CzsmtKhEINJU6gs7DM8gg/s2359/Macedon%201983.jpg" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="1653" data-original-width="2359" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3AjWrqCxTAcX7_k2_Vbe0D3WwSm-omtsnjiWYSu-bCC9LVpBUpJ_xNMZOqrhzdQBKOjTbEZLZLaLgNZpU3SnaFVpouoTsWGKSJCyxols4spqiHwn070dqyrBmQVPSxBkIn3lHLOiuvcu2r6mMyV2-V6l4cEenxeijMZFP4CzsmtKhEINJU6gs7DM8gg/s400/Macedon%201983.jpg" width="400"/></a></div>
<center>Plate 1</center>
<P>
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<span class="CharacterStyle1"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 9.0pt;"><center>A record of the Ash Wednesday 1983 fires produced by the Herald and Weekly Times Limited shows what remained of the main street of Macedon after the impact of the 1983 fire.</center></div></span></span>
<P>
Today, the 40th Anniversary of the Ash Wednesday 1983 bushfires that took so many lives in Victoria and South Australia.
<P>
<b>Some salient recollections</b>
<P>
On that fateful day my involvement as CFA Regional Officer in Charge Region 14 commenced at 6.00 am with a telephone call from the Group Officer, Mount Macedon Group, informing me that there was a fire in unburnt bush at Cherokee in the Macedon Ranges and that it was "burning well".
<P>
At approximately 11.30 am I was informed that the Cherokee fire was "acting up" and that an additional six tankers had been despatched and that the Forests Commission were involved at the fire. By this time the day was warming up, with an already strong north wind.
<P>
At approximately 2.30 pm I received advice from the Forests Commission, Macedon office, that there was a fire at Trentham East and shortly after from the Daylesford office that the fire was heading south into the bush. The rest is history.
<P>
<b>Responding to the experience of the Ash Wednesday bushfires in Victoria.</b>
<P>
In the aftermath of the 1983 fires the CFA Board finally decided to address a statutory responsibility in the Country Fire Authority Act since its inception thirty-eight years ago — finally, an officer was appointed to establish a Fire Prevention Department. In those few years following the 1983 fires I consider CFA reached its short-lived zenith as it pushed Prevention at state and local government.
<P>
In the few years following Ash Wednesday considerable emphasis was placed on Prevention, but there was a lot of catching-up required and Suppression was always dominant when it came to the allocation of resources. For those holding the purse strings, there is much more kudos associated with the allocation of firefighting vehicles.
<P>
<b>And what did we learn from Ash Wednesday 1983?</b>
<P>
As a learning experiences Ash Wednesday and the major fires that have followed, and as recent as the Mallacoota fire of December 2019, Victoria continues to experience bushfire losses that indicate to me that little was learned from those fires.
<P>
Bushfire loss could be significantly reduced with better community understanding of bushfire and how to survive — it should be well understood in the fire agencies that the major cause of housing loss is ember or firebrand attack.
<P>
Some will remember a fire that occurred in the Lancefield area of Victoria in early October 2015 that spread from an earlier DELWP fuel reduction burn-off. Premier Andrews was quick for the government to accept responsibility for the fire and promised compensation for people who could have done more to protect their assets.
<P>
Here is one example of a house clearly lost from the effect of fire spreading from ember or firebrand attack:
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYM7i6ZVdIBlbKWNtyBxkiZUPc62QjxNHzIZ2aCiLLFng7Uq-MsWIt1zEMVwLI6I6pbdB2omfkpKwwCgksnI4vNj931bNn4nJMEZGDU0e2jVFFuX5yzQ9hBo8BuHt0kuOTAUCkQ6GsoxE1/s1600/Gogle+Street+View.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="250" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYM7i6ZVdIBlbKWNtyBxkiZUPc62QjxNHzIZ2aCiLLFng7Uq-MsWIt1zEMVwLI6I6pbdB2omfkpKwwCgksnI4vNj931bNn4nJMEZGDU0e2jVFFuX5yzQ9hBo8BuHt0kuOTAUCkQ6GsoxE1/s400/Gogle+Street+View.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 2</center>
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="2304" data-original-width="3072" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2T6_IPUHjj6PiP6jG0-N2qfwatt98QOZX4Lcgusu0uY9MKiRv6USJhgteOZRMS5ckJVSsACOFexcuuaPoWIWrYNrRPcqYNwLHjEvaCMT6yhNuV8PMDSZ7StPJzt-lyHq9mCgWORmLcwE50DzCflXIDNa5PLY6_uybhI-vihV2z64dRwIRQbE26KdX-w/s400/IMG_4297.JPG" width="400"/></a></div>
<center>Plate 3</center>
<P>
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<center>Plate 4</center>
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3mfFiFPjO-TqUgHKR5k1wqILqJovt-pfVdFmA3GGV3WXpx8s-qpKcesTy0uIQ0fgCmDI11SY17Ux2JXbKIlX5WApj2nWOXSIqCK1F2tXK03ugg7zlKD-6cmA48VZNwug3NYuZ-aAcJ-5XkuU0UGMWBEg77_mXAq4Oh4FMJ5dFrVYbk7fLAHXXeNJfkg/s3072/IMG_4267.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3mfFiFPjO-TqUgHKR5k1wqILqJovt-pfVdFmA3GGV3WXpx8s-qpKcesTy0uIQ0fgCmDI11SY17Ux2JXbKIlX5WApj2nWOXSIqCK1F2tXK03ugg7zlKD-6cmA48VZNwug3NYuZ-aAcJ-5XkuU0UGMWBEg77_mXAq4Oh4FMJ5dFrVYbk7fLAHXXeNJfkg/s3072/IMG_4267.JPG" width="400" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 5</center>
<P>
Of the photographs Plate 2 is a dwelling on the north side of Three Chain Road, Lancefield prior to the fire; Plate 3 and 4 are the remains of same dwelling after the fire — look through the trees to see the green beyond and the only shrubs burnt were abutting the dwelling; and Plate 5 was typical of the adjoining the forest that showed no sign of crown fire.
<P>
With only small patches of dead grass and fallen leaves beneath trees burning, it was obvious that unprepared buildings and rubbish down the back yard succumbed to ember or firebrand attack.
<P>
No doubt a blanket one-size-all-approach to urging people to leave their homes adds to housing loss.
<P>
Lancefield, a fire that largely due to the fickleness of the weather escaped from a fuel reduction burn a few days after it was lit.
<P>
<b>And what of homeland defence?</b>
<P>
From The Australian today, 16 February 2023:
<P>
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<p>
"[Prime Minister] Anthony Albanese has been handed a blue print to prepare Australia for a potential war with China, recommending a rapid boost to long-range strike capabilities, the urgent acquisition of killer drones, and a major increase in the nation's naval firepower".</div></span></span>
<P>
It's not all that long ago that the Australian Defence Force needed to come to the rescue of people in Mallacoota in the aftermath of a fire that roared out of the bush and trapped holiday makers and residents in the town. Necessary due to the failure of a government agency managing land it was responsible for so that it did not endanger people and their assets.
<P>
With our military capability to be strengthened to keep an aggressor from our shores, what about our vulnerability onshore? Poorly managed tracts of public land, such as that which overwhelmed Mallacoota, must be assessed as to the risk they pose and treated accordingly. We can't afford to have our defence force being distracted to bail out a government shirking its statutory and moral responsibilities that ultimately place us at risk of fire by an evildoer behind the lines.
<P>
As always, I would welcome your feedback.
<P>
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bushfireaustraliahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11517140957697336597noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5747072893756120712.post-76326024869247129612021-11-03T20:53:00.022+11:002021-12-05T14:48:38.324+11:00Crooks, cheats, swindlers, hallmarks of the Andrews governmentWhen I commenced this blog in 2014 it was initially intended to help people dealing with the requirements of the <a href="http://bushfireaustralia.blogspot.com/2014/02/bushfire-management-overlay-mysteries.html">Bushfire Management Overlay</a> as part of a planning permit application that based on my experience could be difficult process due to bureaucracy involved in the referrals requirements.
<P>
I soon realised that there were related issues that needed to be addressed. Unlike a government I don't have access to publicly funded spin departments, and journalists or talking heads, most of whom flit from lightbulb to lightbulb like moths and can't be relied on to dig deep on an issue e.g. management — or should I say mismanagement — of the COVID pandemic across Australia. I do my own investigative research to endeavour to expose the truth and I'm not rushing to get subscriptions or suck up to a politician of any stripe.
<P>
Since my last posting on <a href="http://bushfireaustralia.blogspot.com/2020/08/the-new-despotism-and-emergency.html">3 August 2020 </a> a lot has come along to raise my concern, but I'll first confine myself to Victoria.
<P>
Part of my preparation for this posting has been to gain a better understanding of the meaning or application of certain words: crook; crooked; cheat; dishonest; fraud; honest; and swindle, according to the MACQUARIE DICTIONARY FIFTH EDITION published in 2009.
<P>
Maybe I should be a little more charitable and add <a href="https://www.consumer.vic.gov.au/products-and-services/problem-with-a-service/services-not-fit-for-a-particular-purpose">"not fit for purpose"</a> when calling out senior management and responsible Ministers.
<P>
I commenced my 13 July 2016 posting <a href="http://bushfireaustralia.blogspot.com/2016/07/the-nature-of-bushfire-part-3-how-fire.html">"The nature of bushfire Part 3 ... how fire moves across the land" </a> with a discourse on a then recent visit to Berlin to learn about the rise and fall of the Wall or as the now defunct East German government or GDR named it, the "Anti-Fascist Protective Wall":
<P>
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While in Berlin I also t:ok the opportunity to visit the Stasi Museum, formerly the Stasi headquarters. Stasi was the GDR's very secretive security organisation that had wives spying on husbands and vice versa, etc, etc and virtually everyone reporting on someone.
<P>
Chilling in many respects and I can relate the behaviour of the dictator Eric Honecker and his predecessors and their unelected functionaries to the behaviour of some “public servants” back home, but maybe a little more about this later. However, I imagine there are “victims” of Victoria’s Bushfire Management Overlay (BMO) and other aspects of wildfire management or I should say mismanagement in various areas of Australia, who would see some connection.</div></span></Span>
<P>
Never did I imagine that I'd see myself living behind a Wall, in fact two Walls: one around Greater Melbourne and the other around the State of Victoria, but that's what happened to Victorians for much of 2020-21.
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNPU-Z8K2GHcNY-wNKiZZbjlW6Mfjhl-RATw229Qsztxw4_Eo5J0myVE1ZBG4AOjHrPMbG7FvGh3yY17SRvaZBcE8eFQdF3rV53G7SP8BK8oBtJp8e3B9LrWrLNnwcZFQsjC5jCKyRw2I5/s738/IMG_0019+021121.jpg" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" width="400" data-original-height="424" data-original-width="738" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNPU-Z8K2GHcNY-wNKiZZbjlW6Mfjhl-RATw229Qsztxw4_Eo5J0myVE1ZBG4AOjHrPMbG7FvGh3yY17SRvaZBcE8eFQdF3rV53G7SP8BK8oBtJp8e3B9LrWrLNnwcZFQsjC5jCKyRw2I5/s400/IMG_0019+021121.jpg"/></a></div>
<center>Plate 1</center>
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<center>Photo: Nicholson</center></div></span></span>
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjdTkUefOAEMdqilaTF-BhAFLAyUKS70N8gpp5pgB9AOdQqh60OKsH1fbZW7nMzhgLfP3OfYGTDQmewOA4A9mZIRCZ4TU875X_RgCAUxd5aVTPGd8OXkQ9HbSzE7U-nf9PhGJzb-vZDb6I/s738/IMG_0027+021121+a.jpg" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" width="400" data-original-height="553" data-original-width="738" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjdTkUefOAEMdqilaTF-BhAFLAyUKS70N8gpp5pgB9AOdQqh60OKsH1fbZW7nMzhgLfP3OfYGTDQmewOA4A9mZIRCZ4TU875X_RgCAUxd5aVTPGd8OXkQ9HbSzE7U-nf9PhGJzb-vZDb6I/s400/IMG_0027+021121+a.jpg"/></a></div>
<center>Plate 2</center>
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<center>Photo: Nicholson</center></div></span></span>
<P>
Plate 1 shows a remnant of the Berlin Wall that divided people and set one against the other in the former East Berlin, just like in Victoria. Plate 2 a contemporary view of controlled entry into and exit from Victoria at Wodonga from the NSW side, with due respect to Victoria Police members only following the CHO's orders.
<P>
Fed up with the failure of emergency management to prevent or at least minimise loss in a number of areas on 3 August 2020 I posted <a href="http://bushfireaustralia.blogspot.com/2020/08/the-new-despotism-and-emergency.html">"Why people die from wildfire — failure to learn and adapt"</a> .
A now very relevant extract from that posting:
<P>
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<P>
<b> COVID-19</b>
<P>
With EMV involved with COVID-19 in Victoria, is attention also being given to planning for the next wildfire season taking into account lessons that should have been learned from the 2019/20 fires?
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhase7Z8pKQLsomjz1PFfgF0ntwuY95BjBtZe4MFQGbxUkw-HjLzDY4WJEVgtWVmhlwvBXpwfon_Zcx6ZGxkPfCJXBKxvew6-_dCgt4lwgFn4lLsRSEFgSBABJn2W5ijK7A9OBoFzMmY67/s1600/COVID-19.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="757" data-original-width="690" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhase7Z8pKQLsomjz1PFfgF0ntwuY95BjBtZe4MFQGbxUkw-HjLzDY4WJEVgtWVmhlwvBXpwfon_Zcx6ZGxkPfCJXBKxvew6-_dCgt4lwgFn4lLsRSEFgSBABJn2W5ijK7A9OBoFzMmY67/s320/COVID-19.JPG" width="292" /></a></div>
<P>
As I understand the role, the Emergency Management Commissioner has overall responsibility for emergency management in Victoria, be it wildfire or a dead whale that attracts sharks to a beach, which brings me to the COVID-19 pandemic.
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjrXfd1VtQP8GFeZ5vdtuaFSM9M6h8LijBhIJm-O0uNg9fvs3sRw55Bbdo8rc-HUUtGYrYmFrsTIvk33yFrJjpSTYgF8fVIw2xHDdhHcLFMfjrCrMhuj5R9PnT05gNfyeo6zi9xP_laW30h/s1600/emvpandemiccover.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="830" data-original-width="590" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjrXfd1VtQP8GFeZ5vdtuaFSM9M6h8LijBhIJm-O0uNg9fvs3sRw55Bbdo8rc-HUUtGYrYmFrsTIvk33yFrJjpSTYgF8fVIw2xHDdhHcLFMfjrCrMhuj5R9PnT05gNfyeo6zi9xP_laW30h/s320/emvpandemiccover.JPG" width="227" /></a></div>
<P>
With the <a href="https://files-em.em.vic.gov.au/public/EMV-web/Victorian-action-plan-for-pandemic-influenza.pdf"> EMV "Victorian action plan for influenza pandemic"</a> published in August 2015 I find this disturbing:
<P>
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<P>
<b>1.8 Review</b> The action plan is current at the time of publication [August 2015] and remains in effect until modified or superseded.
<P>
<b>The action plan will be reviewed and updated every three years or sooner if it is applied in a major emergency or exercise, or if there is a change to relevant legislation or arrangements.</b> [my emphasis]</div></span></span>
<P>
Almost <u>two years to the day a review is overdue</u>. Were there no lessons to be learned from pandemics, etc e.g. Ebola that occurred elsewhere that we could have learned from? Or relevant lessons to be learned from management of wildfire in Victoria since 2009? Note that the responsible minister is Lisa Neville.
<P>
Sub-part 3.3 Consequence management is worth reading, too. Considering the scrambling to cope with rising case numbers and deaths suggests that Department of Health & Human Services Victoria has questions to answer. A deathly dereliction of duty? Note that the responsible minister is Jenny Mikakos.</div></span></span>
<P>
Mikakos has gone, her fate described by some as having been "thrown under a bus". How long before a bus with the Honourable Lisa Neville's name on it comes along or maybe she'll live up to her Honourable title and resign, though little chance of that I suspect.
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-uc6pz1PbTIBAGjVAObAnW0tuHzqXSREo6qlz9j9zr-Kenh0fKNVCcJnsXyrGQdj2ZiL7lLET0TG1DlK_Gv18ORKXMUzDkMTTbuH-zS8AKWWECR2yUB3YDGRJo6GHPbX_j9ChuCp2ZrIP/s738/IMG_1834+021121.jpg" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" width="400" data-original-height="553" data-original-width="738" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-uc6pz1PbTIBAGjVAObAnW0tuHzqXSREo6qlz9j9zr-Kenh0fKNVCcJnsXyrGQdj2ZiL7lLET0TG1DlK_Gv18ORKXMUzDkMTTbuH-zS8AKWWECR2yUB3YDGRJo6GHPbX_j9ChuCp2ZrIP/s400/IMG_1834+021121.jpg"/></a></div>
<center>Plate 3</center>
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<center>Photo: Nicholson</center></div></span></span>
<P>
Taken at the 11th hour on 11 November 2008, the Cobbers statue at the WW1 Fromelles Memorial Park</a>.
<P>
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<a href="https://www.awm.gov.au/articles/encyclopedia/fromelles">Over two years after the battle, on the day of the Armistice of 11 November 1918 when the guns of the Western Front finally ceased firing, Australian official war correspondent, Charles Bean, wandered over the battlefield of Fromelles and observed the grisly aftermath of the battle: “We found the old No-Man’s-Land simply full of our dead”, he recorded, “the skulls and bones and torn uniforms were lying about everywhere”. Soon after the war these remains were gathered to construct VC Corner Cemetery, the only solely Australian war cemetery in France. It is also the only cemetery without headstones. There are no epitaphs to individual soldiers, simply a stone wall inscribed with the names of 1,299 Australians who died in battle nearby and who have no known graves. The unidentified remains of 410 are buried in mass graves under two grass plots in the cemetery.</a></div></span></span>
<P>
On the eve of Red Poppy Day in Australia, genuine Australians did not go to their deaths for a crooked government willing to do anything to remain in office in Victoria!
<P>
As always, I would welcome your feedback.
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bushfireaustraliahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11517140957697336597noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5747072893756120712.post-41265461301520514102020-08-03T16:46:00.264+10:002021-11-03T16:38:40.695+11:00Why people die from wildfire — failure to learn and adaptFailure to learn from past experience e.g. the 2009 Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission and adapt emergency management arrangements accordingly continues to plague Victorians, most recently the 2019/20 wildfires.
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1QCX3fZSAUy9upwoEb_E1xsEoT8kThwWSiG4stAPKCbjkVeQmk0ERDEIjgr-qZ0Gb49TPLpoOPU4lzJLlPABttXo3JuUJkTmV9DQEkl5JxSwaU6xsS9Rw-xt59JJq6tmXTzMOYFUteXIa/s1600/IMG_9153_211216.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="267" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1QCX3fZSAUy9upwoEb_E1xsEoT8kThwWSiG4stAPKCbjkVeQmk0ERDEIjgr-qZ0Gb49TPLpoOPU4lzJLlPABttXo3JuUJkTmV9DQEkl5JxSwaU6xsS9Rw-xt59JJq6tmXTzMOYFUteXIa/s400/IMG_9153_211216.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<center>Wye River-Separation Creek, Christmas 2015</center>
<P>
And it’s not only wildfire, examples of failure to be aware of hazardous situations, take speedy appropriate remedial action and ensure it does not occur again are legion in Victoria.
<P>
Now we have the devastating <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-17/coronavirus-cases-data-reveals-how-covid-19-spreads-in-australia/12060704?nw=0">COVID-19 in Australia with its ground zero in Victoria</a>.
<P>
I understand Emergency Management Victoria was established to lead and coordinate emergency management but now question, has it failed us?
<P>
Listening to Phillip Adams on his program Late Night Live, broadcast on Radio National on 23 June 2020, interviewing John Keane about his new book The New Despotism, I increasingly likened it to what’s occurring in Australia, particularly the 2019/20 wildfires and COVID-19 virus in Victoria.
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6KoFz2mkdBNfJL0FxVFtS3n06njDzi2r1WUckn_7JKKja-SH3BkX8WaNXE7Avq1NK7cgx9kV2MlfcIcyVb_of7Vk2MCvy7lSWqmupWAS5tt8fTxZdVgdD4ZqbxnFJdAR9-73CHtgLjgVs/s1600/Keane.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6KoFz2mkdBNfJL0FxVFtS3n06njDzi2r1WUckn_7JKKja-SH3BkX8WaNXE7Avq1NK7cgx9kV2MlfcIcyVb_of7Vk2MCvy7lSWqmupWAS5tt8fTxZdVgdD4ZqbxnFJdAR9-73CHtgLjgVs/s320/Keane.JPG" width="213" height="320" data-original-width="231" data-original-height="347" /></a></div>
<P>
An extract from a review by LSE Review of Books:
<P>
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<a href="https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/lsereviewofbooks/2020/06/30/book-review-the-new-despotism-by-john-keane/">The strength of the new despotism comes from its skilful use of the media, and that use goes far beyond the familiar dissemination of ‘fake news’ and the slandering of opponents. Rather than hiding from public view, the new despotism embraces communicative abundance and intrumentalises it to the fullest degree. Leaders’ media appearances are lavish, meticulously choreographed affairs. It could be said that the new despotism stages non-stop theatrical spectacles projected to the whole nation. Grand infrastructure projects are one key prop in this theatre of self-aggrandisement.</a></div></span></span>
<P>
Grand infrastructure projects remind me of railway level crossing replacement and railway tunnels in Victoria. <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-03/will-victorians-get-childcare-despite-tougher-coronavirus-measu/12519098">Political capital, currently being eroded</a> and not only in Victoria.
<P>
In my opinion the state Premiers are all despots, some worse than others and all seeking to demonstrate to their ‘subjects’ they are looking after their best interests. But whose best interests?
<P>
<b>Balkanising of Australia</b>
<P>
Those who offend me the most are McGowan, WA for his rudeness and Palaszczuk, Queensland generally for on her on-again-off-again fence around Queensland and apparent disregard for businesses affected. Both of them are leading the charge to Balkanise Australia by turning their subjects against other Australians, notably Victorians. They remind me of the Pied Piper leading the rats to oblivion — they appeal to the baser instincts of us humans unable to think for ourselves and see past spin.
<P>
While the rats may not literally drown as did the Piper’s rats, we should all expect to drown in a somewhat avoidable sea of health and economic disaster. No doubt in my mind that McGowan and Palaszczuk are more interested in scoring political points rather than the best interests of all Australians. True despots of the modern era and these two are not alone.
<P>
A few notable comments from the <a href="http://exposed.net.au/adams.mp4.m4a">Late Night Live</a> recording that runs for 20 minutes for those interested:
<br>
• At approximately 3 minutes – Adams “I've seen a bit of that around in Australia"
<br>
• At approximately 7 minutes 30 seconds – “top down systems of power”
<br>
• At approximately 12 minutes 40 seconds – why people in lock down shop
<br>
• At approximately 12 minutes 55 seconds – "people complain endlessly but do nothing"
<P>
A long recording but worth listening to as Keane says things that we may recognise in ourselves or those around us.
<P>
<b>Wildfire management</b>
<P>
Sticking with my blog commitment to better wildfire management but acknowledging the measures necessary to contain/eliminate COVID-19, whatever, how will wildfire be managed this approaching season in Victoria to avoid a <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/forgotten-gippslanders-are-still-finding-their-way-after-the-fires-20200604-p54zjh.html">Mallacoota catastrophe</a> elsewhere? What planning is going into dealing with:
<br>
• Reduced availability of firefighters from interstate and overseas?<br>
• Reduced availability of firefighting aircraft from interstate and overseas?<br>
• Restricted movement of ICC people across Victoria?<br>
<P>
<b>Evacuation</b>
<P>
The vexed question of evacuation, a particularly important consideration given people are currently being urged to isolate in their homes and may be reluctant to leave ... some may actually get caught and die. Then there's the potential for many to protect their homes and businesses where ember attack is the main threat, particularly in towns and settlements, but this would require a shift by the fire and emergency services from their perceived ownership of the wildfire problem. From an earlier posting, <a href="http://bushfireaustralia.blogspot.com/2019/11/wildfire-and-meaning-of-life.html">"Evacuation is the easy option, we can and must do better at protecting human life."</a>
<P>
<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/california-wildfire-destroys-1-home-prompts-new-evacuations/2020/08/01/f42eaf28-d45d-11ea-826b-cc394d824e35_story.html"> "BANNING, Calif. — Thousands of people were under evacuation orders Sunday after a wildfire in mountains east of Los Angeles exploded in size as crews battled flames in triple-digit heat."</a> Large scale evacuation in a US state with a record number of coronavirus deaths for one day at 30 July 2020. Source <i>The Washington Post</i>.
<P>
<b> COVID-19</b>
<P>
With EMV involved with COVID-19 in Victoria, is attention also being given to planning for the next wildfire season taking into account lessons that should have been learned from the 2019/20 fires?
<P>
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<P>
As I understand the role, the Emergency Management Commissioner has overall responsibility for emergency management in Victoria, be it wildfire or a dead whale that attracts sharks to a beach, which brings me to the COVID-19 pandemic.
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjrXfd1VtQP8GFeZ5vdtuaFSM9M6h8LijBhIJm-O0uNg9fvs3sRw55Bbdo8rc-HUUtGYrYmFrsTIvk33yFrJjpSTYgF8fVIw2xHDdhHcLFMfjrCrMhuj5R9PnT05gNfyeo6zi9xP_laW30h/s1600/emvpandemiccover.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjrXfd1VtQP8GFeZ5vdtuaFSM9M6h8LijBhIJm-O0uNg9fvs3sRw55Bbdo8rc-HUUtGYrYmFrsTIvk33yFrJjpSTYgF8fVIw2xHDdhHcLFMfjrCrMhuj5R9PnT05gNfyeo6zi9xP_laW30h/s320/emvpandemiccover.JPG" width="227" height="320" data-original-width="590" data-original-height="830" /></a></div>
<P>
With the <a href="https://files-em.em.vic.gov.au/public/EMV-web/Victorian-action-plan-for-pandemic-influenza.pdf"> EMV "Victorian action plan for influenza pandemic"</a> published in August 2015 I find this disturbing:
<P>
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<P>
<b>1.8 Review</b> The action plan is current at the time of publication [August 2015] and remains in effect until modified or superseded.
<P>
<b>The action plan will be reviewed and updated every three years or sooner if it is applied in a major emergency or exercise, or if there is a change to relevant legislation or arrangements.</b> [my emphasis]</div></span></span>
<P>
Almost <u>two years to the day a review is overdue</u>. Were there no lessons to be learned from pandemics, etc e.g. Ebola that occurred elsewhere that we could have learned from? Or relevant lessons to be learned from management of wildfire in Victoria since 2009? Note that the responsible minister is Lisa Neville.
<P>
Sub-part 3.3 Consequence management is worth reading, too. Considering the scrambling to cope with rising case numbers and deaths suggests that Department of Health & Human Services Victoria has questions to answer. A deathly dereliction of duty? Note that the responsible minister is Jenny Mikakos.
<P>
<b>Distractions</b>
<P>
Another distraction for EMV, the type that can take people lower on Maslow's hierarchy of needs? From <i>The Australian</i>, 4 August 2020 <a href="http://exposed.net.au/lawyers.pdf">"Coronavirus: Hotel quarantine inquiry a lawyers’ picnic"</a>. Why the lawyers, do those called to appear, including EMV, have something to hide or worry that they’ll end up in a dog-eat-dog inquiry and someone may be 'thrown under a bus' by a failed responsible minister running for cover?
<P>
What then of planning for the approaching wildfire season?
<P>
Capability test, can the Emergency Management Commissioner simultaneously walk and chew gum?
<P>
As always, I would welcome your feedback.
<P>
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bushfireaustraliahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11517140957697336597noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5747072893756120712.post-49833014375026900862020-02-17T22:05:00.000+11:002020-02-17T22:05:09.960+11:00Wildfire management in Australia — The Howitt Society formed to bring attention to the need to deal with the "here and now"Hello all
<P>
There are groups and governments and their responsible agencies, particularly some responsible for managing public land that are either mischievously using the wildfires earlier this year to promote climate change as the reason for the fires or using it as a cover for failing to adapt to properly address fire management — see my post "<a href="http://bushfireaustralia.blogspot.com/2020/01/wildfire-management-in-australia-how.html"> "Wildfire management in Australia — how not to run a fire service"</a>, 25 January 2020.
<P>
In an endeavor to provide a forum for those with an interest a group of concerned individuals recently formed <a href="https://thehowittsociety.com/"> The Howitt Society </a>.
<P>
Briefly, The Howitt Society is a group of experienced land and fire management practitioners; scientists, foresters, anthropologists, historians, and past and current stake-holders who all share one passion – caring for country. The website is our public forum on which to post information, discuss topics and stay informed on important issues regarding land management.
<P>
To my knowledge The Howitt Society is one of very few groups presenting a contrary view to those ignoring or denying the importance of fuel reduction to mitigate the effect of wildfire on social, environmental and economic values in Australia. We have a lot of catching up to do.
<P>
For those interested the Society recently launched a <a href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/657193818155845/">Facebook public group</a> to facilitate the exchange of relevant information and ideas.
<P>
As always, I would welcome your feedback.
<P>
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bushfireaustraliahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11517140957697336597noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5747072893756120712.post-21161271827903096682020-01-25T20:09:00.000+11:002020-01-30T14:36:03.051+11:00Wildfire management in Australia — how not to run a fire serviceBeen a disturbing but interesting wildfire situation in Australia during the last few weeks.
<P>
Before going any further I must say that my criticism is of governments and departmental executive management and not firefighters on the ground who work their guts out, in some cases put their safety at risk and sadly some make the supreme sacrifice to protect life and property.
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJ4Qsg7x_VSbdboaIhcBO7Hyi0ifOKPisaZ4cVhlMQyfx1SGFWGvILAFIV5afGHBj8pLDmm2KWm4Vp8r47jx8o8jjYp7lBrvCpwsYT4njAr9qEdRFuSzUWebNcAQc85-Smw0QAtyiDpbUf/s1600/4CE3AE8E00000578-5801903-image-a-58_1528072152857.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJ4Qsg7x_VSbdboaIhcBO7Hyi0ifOKPisaZ4cVhlMQyfx1SGFWGvILAFIV5afGHBj8pLDmm2KWm4Vp8r47jx8o8jjYp7lBrvCpwsYT4njAr9qEdRFuSzUWebNcAQc85-Smw0QAtyiDpbUf/s400/4CE3AE8E00000578-5801903-image-a-58_1528072152857.jpg" width="400" height="285" data-original-width="634" data-original-height="452" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 1</center>
<center>Grenfell Tower Fire, 4 June 2018</center>
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<span class="CharacterStyle1"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 9.0pt;">
<center>Photo: Daily Mail Australia</center></div></span></span>
<P>
First, going overseas to put the subject of this posting in context, I'm drawn to the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XVRrSTpPePE"> Grenfell Tower fire in London</a> early on 14 June 2017, where at least 70 people lost their lives in the tower.
<P>
From the <a href="https://assets.grenfelltowerinquiry.org.uk/GTI%20-%20Phase%201%20report%20Executive%20Summary.pdf"> Grenfell Tower Inquiry: Phase 1 Report</a> two issues stand out to me, the contribution of fuel to the spread of fire and the performance of the London Fire Brigade. If time-poor you can listen to a video statement on the Phase 1 report by the <a href="https://youtu.be/YE9idAhfq4o">Inquiry Chairman: Sir Martin Moore-Bick</a>.
<P>
It took the London Fire Brigade a short few hours to get it's emergency response sorted out, but in that time at least 71 people lost their lives. And, the flammability of the cladding and other structural faults contributed to the development and spread of the fire. Sound familiar?
<P>
There's another fire service much closer to home in my case that failed in its response to major fires and neglected reducing the wildfire threat due to fuel accumulation in National Parks and government administered forests in the State of Victoria. Here, I'm referring to the <a href="https://www2.delwp.vic.gov.au/"> Department of Environment, Water, Land and Planning </a>, otherwise known as DELWP, Victoria.
<P>
Within DELWP is <a href="https://www.ffm.vic.gov.au/"> Forest Fire Management </a>. Now, I'll draw a parallel with the London Fire Brigade prior to the Grenfell Tower fire, the LFB response took a short few hours to get its response act together, whereas DELWP took days, and months to make a meaningful response to some of those outbreaks of fire, <a href="https://www.facebook.com/DELWPGippsland/videos/109871160460756/"> fire spread and suppression difficulty growing accordingly</a>.
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3mh2p42BBBDwUL7o9vwlQ9Ct3BMapH6m8fFC9nk532I0118LjnEyPVDQAzaWafs5NsrpzTjsEIrA2a0_FRpgmeFOv0v2IZy-OHex2E3sHmcJv1LgjCu0tdHl_hR5MNJvYJS1xQcUWosEl/s1600/2000px-Fire_triangle.svg.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="174" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3mh2p42BBBDwUL7o9vwlQ9Ct3BMapH6m8fFC9nk532I0118LjnEyPVDQAzaWafs5NsrpzTjsEIrA2a0_FRpgmeFOv0v2IZy-OHex2E3sHmcJv1LgjCu0tdHl_hR5MNJvYJS1xQcUWosEl/s200/2000px-Fire_triangle.svg.png" width="200" /></a></div>
<P>
Fuel in the form of flammable cladding was very largely responsible for the intensity and spread of the Grenfell Tower fire. There are materials testing procedures and building design requirements to prevent a Grenfell Tower situation.
<P>
There can be no doubt that the intensity and spread of wildfire in Victoria alone is due to buildup of fuel in forests and National Parks and the threat it presents.
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJrtwJMVkEVatsg4g4OiBk79vGfgNC7R1BlGDx-VHlirGA8Av4ftpgzpD1tvb2AMqnd19iUYW6FR53FheTKzUwQpH2MWxN94eV4G59zZOG2jyxSRCIY4oVWeBhsdspAgtJPvJXt-18mRsE/s1600/IMG_8301+240917.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJrtwJMVkEVatsg4g4OiBk79vGfgNC7R1BlGDx-VHlirGA8Av4ftpgzpD1tvb2AMqnd19iUYW6FR53FheTKzUwQpH2MWxN94eV4G59zZOG2jyxSRCIY4oVWeBhsdspAgtJPvJXt-18mRsE/s400/IMG_8301+240917.jpg" width="400" height="300" data-original-width="1065" data-original-height="800" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 2</center>
<center>Dwellings on the southern side of Cassidy Drive, Kennett River</center>
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<span class="CharacterStyle1"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 9.0pt;">
<center>Photo: John Nicholson</center></div></span></span>
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4czThqsQAUaruoTOqRDUinTH2YqzQS4KGCLWTo8y4zV1sEVK_kmBe6BXQujAzf_fsNttCqQFyS57X5f3sLphNN71m5G-BC-2bDMG4BUcjdhDzSMKVvR6Juma7oghdAj30Mgw-VySNwOj3/s1600/IMG_8308+240917.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4czThqsQAUaruoTOqRDUinTH2YqzQS4KGCLWTo8y4zV1sEVK_kmBe6BXQujAzf_fsNttCqQFyS57X5f3sLphNN71m5G-BC-2bDMG4BUcjdhDzSMKVvR6Juma7oghdAj30Mgw-VySNwOj3/s400/IMG_8308+240917.jpg" width="400" height="300" data-original-width="1063" data-original-height="797" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 3</center>
<center>Opposite or north of the dwellings in Plate 2</center>
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<span class="CharacterStyle1"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 9.0pt;">
<center>Photo: John Nicholson</center></div></span></span>
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjSOhswfY0FjnunGBB5y_5NPIBXY-aR_TaY9Zs7-2z8o022xhzcZwq_TkeXVoh1uqSvf6yLavQjJakyl_Dm1Zg9FYK154_Cu3VxNohp4dT6Zl5RoPNkgNv9c0pyb1XSJ1G7yN5YDIKb5wX/s1600/IMG_8341_070717.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjSOhswfY0FjnunGBB5y_5NPIBXY-aR_TaY9Zs7-2z8o022xhzcZwq_TkeXVoh1uqSvf6yLavQjJakyl_Dm1Zg9FYK154_Cu3VxNohp4dT6Zl5RoPNkgNv9c0pyb1XSJ1G7yN5YDIKb5wX/s400/IMG_8341_070717.jpg" width="400" height="300" data-original-width="1476" data-original-height="1107" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 4</center>
<center>From Kennett Road upslope towards the dwellings in Plate 2</center>
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<span class="CharacterStyle1"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 9.0pt;">
<center>Photo: John Nicholson</center></div></span></span>
<P>
Though Plates 2, 3 and 4 were photographed in July 2017 I have revisited the sites as recently as September 2019 and am confident that the fuel hazard remains.
<P>
<B>FUEL</B>
<P>
Referring to the fire triangle (above), in both structural fire and wildfire environments the availability of fuel is the major contributor to fire intensity and spread. For wildfire, there is really only one practical and effective treatment, <a href="https://thehowittsociety.com/2019/05/28/howitt-quote-2/"><b>reduce the fuel</b></a>!
<P>
Stay tuned.
<P>
As always, I would welcome your feedback.
<P>
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bushfireaustraliahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11517140957697336597noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5747072893756120712.post-36097562822911032412019-12-21T09:56:00.001+11:002019-12-23T14:26:30.290+11:00Wildfire management in Australia — fighting a war of survival in a leadership vacuum<P>
In my previous posting on Tuesday, 12 November 2019, I expressed my views on "<a href="http://bushfireaustralia.blogspot.com/2019/11/wildfire-and-meaning-of-life.html">the meaning of life</a>" in the context of wildfire management.
<P>
In support of my opposition to the once-size-fits-all penchant of governments and their emergency management agencies for evacuation and the consequent adverse affects it can have on people either urged of forced to evacuate there needs to be a serious refocus on the importance of the home in managing wildfire. From <a href="https://www.johnodonohue.com/about ">John O'Donohue, Irish Poet and Philosopher</a>:
<P><div class="Style1" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 20pt; margin-right: 19.85pt; margin-top: 8.Opt; mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-line-break-override: restrictions; punctuation-wrap: simple; text-align: justify; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span class="CharacterStyle1"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">
<P>
<b>WHERE LOVE HAS LIVED</b>
<P>
A home is not simply a building; it is the shelter around the intimacy of a life. Coming in from the outside world and its rasp of force and usage, you relax and allow yourself to be who you are. The inner walls of a home are threaded with the textures of one's soul, a subtle weave of presences. If you could see your home through the lens of the soul, you would be surprised at the beauty concealed in the memory your home holds. When you enter some homes, you sense how the memories have seeped to the surface, infusing the aura of the place and deepening the tone of its presence. Where love has lived, a house still holds the warmth. Even the poorest home feels like a nest if love and tenderness dwell there. </div></span></span>
<P>
When I posted the previous blog this was the fire situation in north-eastern New South Wales on Friday, 8 November 2019:
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgLzx4iTuivxVcvSle2dVS4CiDcOVy5Lp7mIjg9K9Er0LxwJJUSNArrOqWzjNk8Lvq96sSTuPwjwfKF7TfjrSNXJ-gDdygJFYofDdIYqN7hxkv7XJIdeswngRAMqKEqv1T22YMwHPs0spxW/s1600/NSW+FRS+1910+hrs++081119.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="806" data-original-width="1600" height="202" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgLzx4iTuivxVcvSle2dVS4CiDcOVy5Lp7mIjg9K9Er0LxwJJUSNArrOqWzjNk8Lvq96sSTuPwjwfKF7TfjrSNXJ-gDdygJFYofDdIYqN7hxkv7XJIdeswngRAMqKEqv1T22YMwHPs0spxW/s400/NSW+FRS+1910+hrs++081119.JPG" width="400" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 1</center>
<center>Friday 8 November 2019</center>
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9ZLRpnCo7-0gOXl6BfoFpx8N0xhrjA0HDWYDCNLDT1rnNNdkLFFTu3DXmLISMGfNgaq2mwDirq6hpXGKORU7U8E735lzadyMOaKn5dZh1A6xrGbCqPr2yb-G10KlJo7Da5NMcXtavXfmj/s1600/nswfrs21455081219.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9ZLRpnCo7-0gOXl6BfoFpx8N0xhrjA0HDWYDCNLDT1rnNNdkLFFTu3DXmLISMGfNgaq2mwDirq6hpXGKORU7U8E735lzadyMOaKn5dZh1A6xrGbCqPr2yb-G10KlJo7Da5NMcXtavXfmj/s400/nswfrs21455081219.JPG" width="400" height="212" data-original-width="1600" data-original-height="849" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 2</center>
<center>1500 hrs Sunday 8 December 2019</center>
And below, enormous fires north and southwest of Sydney:
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfjf8ZYJt1ByQFJQe98T-S5km3xMpFNbDOez_idPcirvqD8garc-wYUsi3bFOFtHb1q1yKIUKHlSVhjTMc1WqHS5jfd5ZXiputB2F4hvUX5Pt6geLwN8G66N6g9RmJ10M7ZxLsJuL-GCyG/s1600/nswfrs31455081219.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfjf8ZYJt1ByQFJQe98T-S5km3xMpFNbDOez_idPcirvqD8garc-wYUsi3bFOFtHb1q1yKIUKHlSVhjTMc1WqHS5jfd5ZXiputB2F4hvUX5Pt6geLwN8G66N6g9RmJ10M7ZxLsJuL-GCyG/s400/nswfrs31455081219.JPG" width="400" height="211" data-original-width="1600" data-original-height="844" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 3</center>
<center>1500 hrs Sunday 8 December 2019</center>
<P>
And since 8 December its become dramatically worse around Sydney, culminating in NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian last Thursday declaring a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-19/sydney-nsw-heatwave-weather-smoke-bushfires/11810414">"state of emergency"</a>.
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjO015JpTNxjEiXa4zsvo5AV41bEsym4D40X3pPwMq_vKyPyasY768Ayp2Y6RcCgSs5NgOP9QUtY5HtXBgWCXq1CH-rKREW3ihESMYRqTJVmn4qSDDykkjGaf6DQgj5uSo41dTk7F791ufc/s1600/nswrfs_0750+hrs_221219.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjO015JpTNxjEiXa4zsvo5AV41bEsym4D40X3pPwMq_vKyPyasY768Ayp2Y6RcCgSs5NgOP9QUtY5HtXBgWCXq1CH-rKREW3ihESMYRqTJVmn4qSDDykkjGaf6DQgj5uSo41dTk7F791ufc/s400/nswrfs_0750+hrs_221219.JPG" width="400" height="197" data-original-width="1600" data-original-height="788" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 4</center>
<center>0750 hrs Sunday 22 December 2019</center>
<center>Seems there's potential for these monsters to join in the Katoomba area </center>
<P>
Concerning my previous discourse on the "meaning of life", not only is loss of life and property climbing, the toll now includes firefighters killed in the line duty. Then there's the threat to health on a much broader scale due to heavy smoke, particularly in the Sydney region.
<P>
<b>How worse can it get, the smoke interfered with Big Bash cricket in Canberra last evening!!!!</b>
<P>
To quote Professor Julius Sumner Miller, "Why is it so?" The answer is largely in the fire triangle.
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3mh2p42BBBDwUL7o9vwlQ9Ct3BMapH6m8fFC9nk532I0118LjnEyPVDQAzaWafs5NsrpzTjsEIrA2a0_FRpgmeFOv0v2IZy-OHex2E3sHmcJv1LgjCu0tdHl_hR5MNJvYJS1xQcUWosEl/s1600/2000px-Fire_triangle.svg.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="174" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3mh2p42BBBDwUL7o9vwlQ9Ct3BMapH6m8fFC9nk532I0118LjnEyPVDQAzaWafs5NsrpzTjsEIrA2a0_FRpgmeFOv0v2IZy-OHex2E3sHmcJv1LgjCu0tdHl_hR5MNJvYJS1xQcUWosEl/s200/2000px-Fire_triangle.svg.png" width="200" /></a></div>
<P>
And of course I'm referring to the only component that humans can control: Fuel.
<P>
If you've been following the two main themes of discussion, one view is that "climate change" is responsible for the fires, a very tenuous argument in my opinion because it does not assist with dealing with "the here and now". The other theme concerns ineffective land management i.e. lack of hazard reduction or more particularly fuel reduction burning in forests and National Parks.
<P>
From one who is in a well-informed position to comment, listen to what <a href="https://www.facebook.com/SkyNewsAustralia/videos/3388573374550166/UzpfSTEwMDAwMDU0MjE5MjgyMjozMDc1OTg3Njg5MDk1OTQx/?eid=ARC-4WP3IAr5ICtA9Ccqij3X-XH8qJgj36tK9zrJM-SP75hm55-k8M2ac8L4Cit8LW2vO6H1qhwwqEbX">President of the (NSW) Volunteer Fire Fighters Association Mick Holton</a> has to say about wildfires rampaging across NSW, particularly about land management or maybe I should say mismanagement.
<P>
<b>Ultimately on your head Premier Berejiklian, and your head Premier Andrews for the second catastrophe in East Gippsland this year</b>.
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyXKjhsoVKpZHJdePMaqRHqx4LF0Bm6JwTGrdEYvuXG8hXjM7kWJ3DauUhHfIjED5DtZvevILa8h6e6ABFwlp4uTkJHDZ2CcmDx1Ok9n_Rh7NQerYKG-KaJlNapK0u3QBERfmjhi2wYZWA/s1600/emv_eastgipps_1305_221219.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyXKjhsoVKpZHJdePMaqRHqx4LF0Bm6JwTGrdEYvuXG8hXjM7kWJ3DauUhHfIjED5DtZvevILa8h6e6ABFwlp4uTkJHDZ2CcmDx1Ok9n_Rh7NQerYKG-KaJlNapK0u3QBERfmjhi2wYZWA/s400/emv_eastgipps_1305_221219.JPG" width="400" height="218" data-original-width="1600" data-original-height="873" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 5</center>
<center>1505 hrs Sunday 22 December 2019</center>
<center>East Gippsland fires — how long before two or more join?</center>
<P>
<b>MANAGING A CRISIS</b>
<P>
While thinking about a headline I was tempted to refer to the Prime Minister's much-derided "thoughts and prayers", but what else does he have to offer that will deal effectively with the "here and now"? What advice has the PM been offered by the so-called experts e.g. AFAC, the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC or at an emergency meeting of COAG?
<P>
Then for a few minutes the headline “adapt or die” — death in the broader context of the harmful effect of the fires on community physiological and psychological health, the economy and environmental values.
<P>
Concerning the call by many to declare a "national emergency", what would that entail and how does the PM do that when the States are responsible for wildfire prevention and suppression and can't even agree on how to manage water in the Murray-Darling system.
<P>
<a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/the-monster-a-short-history-of-australia-s-biggest-forest-fire-20191218-p53l4y.html">'The monster': a short history of Australia's biggest forest fire</a>
<P>
<b>THE WAY FORWARD</b>
<P>
With the approval of the renowned International Association of Wildland Fire, a September 2019 statement on wildfire and the future:
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<a href="http://exposed.net.au/iawfstatement230919.pdf">Under current climate change scenarios, fire regimes will change in terms of increases in burned area, severity, fire season length, frequency, and ignitions from lightning. Many parts of the world have already experienced an increase in record breaking temperatures and recurring droughts that have led to shifts in wildland fire. There is already evidence of climate-driven fire regime change in the Northern Hemisphere upper latitudes with fire risk increasing in non-traditional fire-prone countries. The consequences of human actions are here today, not in some distant future, and these are alarming and, most important, escalating.</a></div></span></span>
<P>
Prime Minister Morrison, it is a <i>national emergency due to war declared on us by wildfire</i>, with climate change adherents predicting that it will only get worse. Time for strategic leadership from the adults that provides immediate and ongoing wildfire mitigating solutions — <b>carpe diem Prime Minister</b>, time to kick arse and deal with a homeland security threat and not abandon us to recalcitrant State governments or an <a href="http://exposed.net.au/activist221219.jpg"> unelected activist</a>.
<P>
Stay tuned.
<P>
As always, I would welcome your feedback.
<P>
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bushfireaustraliahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11517140957697336597noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5747072893756120712.post-33935756328748387102019-11-12T15:35:00.000+11:002019-12-17T08:26:51.720+11:00Wildfire and the meaning of lifeWildfire, with so much burning here in Australia and in the USA what does the future hold?
<P>
I started preparation of this blog during a period of relative calm a few days prior to the hellish fire situation in north-eastern New South Wales on Friday, 8 November 2019, but kept being distracted by a worsening fire situation.
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgLzx4iTuivxVcvSle2dVS4CiDcOVy5Lp7mIjg9K9Er0LxwJJUSNArrOqWzjNk8Lvq96sSTuPwjwfKF7TfjrSNXJ-gDdygJFYofDdIYqN7hxkv7XJIdeswngRAMqKEqv1T22YMwHPs0spxW/s1600/NSW+FRS+1910+hrs++081119.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgLzx4iTuivxVcvSle2dVS4CiDcOVy5Lp7mIjg9K9Er0LxwJJUSNArrOqWzjNk8Lvq96sSTuPwjwfKF7TfjrSNXJ-gDdygJFYofDdIYqN7hxkv7XJIdeswngRAMqKEqv1T22YMwHPs0spxW/s400/NSW+FRS+1910+hrs++081119.JPG" width="400" height="202" data-original-width="1600" data-original-height="806" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 1</center>
<center>1910 hrs Friday 8 November 2019</center>
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsYLfy6fExho_PzHosR_yH_iaaiGw-JM7qSikD9RqnBfPTKiknLKtPTgmzM95z1OCNZvvff4TXgDunQvmrSU04IbkwTP7T_7oTEIvWAYNOLlEimjVhRORgSL5WXEUA7d9fEzydCIGUXc-c/s1600/Sentinel+Hotspots+1313+hrs+EDST+901119.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsYLfy6fExho_PzHosR_yH_iaaiGw-JM7qSikD9RqnBfPTKiknLKtPTgmzM95z1OCNZvvff4TXgDunQvmrSU04IbkwTP7T_7oTEIvWAYNOLlEimjVhRORgSL5WXEUA7d9fEzydCIGUXc-c/s400/Sentinel+Hotspots+1313+hrs+EDST+901119.JPG" width="400" height="218" data-original-width="1600" data-original-height="873" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 2</center>
<center>1313 hrs Saturday 9 November 2019</center>
<P>
Following wildfires across the state of Victoria in 2009 that took 173 lives — how many other lives were shortened in the aftermath of the fires, an issue I'll delve into later — the government established the <a href="http://exposed.net.au/vbrcletterspatent.pdf"> 2009 Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission</a> to investigate the circumstances of those fires and make such recommendations as considered appropriate.
<P>
<b>Protection of human life</b>
<P>
Of the Commission’s 67 recommendations and other writings, to me the following quote stands out:
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<P>
<a href="http://royalcommission.vic.gov.au/finaldocuments/summary/HR/VBRC_Summary_HR.pdf">"The Commission views protection of human life and the safety of communities as the highest priority for bushfire policy and directed its efforts accordingly."</a></div></span></span>
<P>
This reference to the protection of human life appears in several other places in the Commission's report and recommendations. The land use planning element of DELWP, and elsewhere in Victoria's emergency management literature there is reference to the "primacy of life".
<P>
Considering the loss of life and peoples homes and livelihoods in the current NSW and Queensland fires how is human life affected? I hear the emergency management agencies and governments congratulating themselves that there was no loss of life or it was minimised — "officially" those unfortunates who did lose their lives will probably carry the blame for their own demise i.e. they were warned.
<P>
<b>The meaning of life</b>
<P>
Surely there's more to it than simply saving their skins and what they stand up in. To me there is, which brings me to my heading, "Wildfire and the meaning of life."
<P>
I'm firmly of the view that driving people to evacuate, in many cases where <a href="https://www.facebook.com/7NEWSsydney/videos/269558443960646/UzpfSTEwMDAwMDU0MjE5MjgyMjoyOTg1MDkyMDAxNTE4ODQ0/">media photos and video shows unburnt tree canopies and in a couple of cases unburnt shrubs</a> next to burning lost houses, condemns many to be lost to ember attack due to no one being in attendance to extinguish those embers.
<P>
I've recently done a lot of reading concerning the meaning of life and found the following two examples useful:
<P>
One definition, offered by well-being researcher Laura King and colleagues, says:
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/having-a-sense-of-meaning-in-life-is-good-for-you-so-how-do-you-get-one-110361"> …lives may be experienced as meaningful when they are felt to have a significance beyond the trivial or momentary, to have purpose, or to have a coherence that transcends chaos.</a></div></span></span>
<P>
And, the following quote from <a href="https://www.johnodonohue.com/about ">John O'Donohue, Irish Poet and Philosopher </a> that came to my attention earlier today and for this I thank my cousin, Reverend Peter:
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<P>
WHERE LOVE HAS LIVED
<P>
A home is not simply a building; it is the shelter around the intimacy of a life. Coming in from the outside world and its rasp of force and usage, you relax and allow yourself to be who you are. The inner walls of a home are threaded with the textures of one's soul, a subtle weave of presences. If you could see your home through the lens of the soul, you would be surprised at the beauty concealed in the memory your home holds. When you enter some homes, you sense how the memories have seeped to the surface, infusing the aura of the place and deepening the tone of its presence. Where love has lived, a house still holds the warmth. Even the poorest home feels like a nest if love and tenderness dwell there. </div></span></span>
<P>
The following three photographs are of the remains of a house in Wye River a victim of the 2015 Christmas Day fire. Noting the collectables still standing, love had obviously gone into the garden and no doubt its interior. Knowing a little about the owner it was certainly more than just another house, it was a home with lots of memories.
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiaC6bklqKsspRidUO-j6HjSPPzvmWzKpgjrYEAI1RVxJQOw1U5dqS2U7vg1DGYrqfB1W3mROFagC4BoY-DiBH8RAIKZED8zQ_2YPwcA5v2QdDq34hHeAJ4pEtUvupzg0gBXhCa2214yXcK/s1600/IMG_5389_070316.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiaC6bklqKsspRidUO-j6HjSPPzvmWzKpgjrYEAI1RVxJQOw1U5dqS2U7vg1DGYrqfB1W3mROFagC4BoY-DiBH8RAIKZED8zQ_2YPwcA5v2QdDq34hHeAJ4pEtUvupzg0gBXhCa2214yXcK/s400/IMG_5389_070316.jpg" width="267" height="400" data-original-width="630" data-original-height="945" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 3</center>
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5pnq2Vm-1uo4h1iwDVb2vPt_ca65gUaZmHAasRB0-Z99QPtvISrbJb8ldsUhzT8eXusGPf6DpfGeQwolzEGEHjOyC2uBi3HJjqTgCJxIuETPuYijQr4eVjX1ax72F7pK6QZquG4tFYqAD/s1600/IMG_5388+131119.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5pnq2Vm-1uo4h1iwDVb2vPt_ca65gUaZmHAasRB0-Z99QPtvISrbJb8ldsUhzT8eXusGPf6DpfGeQwolzEGEHjOyC2uBi3HJjqTgCJxIuETPuYijQr4eVjX1ax72F7pK6QZquG4tFYqAD/s400/IMG_5388+131119.jpg" width="400" height="267" data-original-width="1183" data-original-height="790" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 4</center>
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUGepLIKu0rpB-PES6j-jrwKQ70NYrlQLIitgoekf0i9ffbtNvXK7i4O3q8yxXCMZFne5-d3XHD4-TCSveYIt8auaLXTGSn1nopU4DNmTheYK4_oPgE94YYs3EaGmK5WzTEBZ8X7YkL6QK/s1600/IMG_5393+131119.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUGepLIKu0rpB-PES6j-jrwKQ70NYrlQLIitgoekf0i9ffbtNvXK7i4O3q8yxXCMZFne5-d3XHD4-TCSveYIt8auaLXTGSn1nopU4DNmTheYK4_oPgE94YYs3EaGmK5WzTEBZ8X7YkL6QK/s400/IMG_5393+131119.jpg" width="400" height="174" data-original-width="1183" data-original-height="516" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 5</center>
<P>
A few days ago I heard NSW Premier Berejiklian mention her concern for people traumatised by the fires including words to the effect that we should look out for them and help where we can. No wonder people are traumatised worring about their homes, animals and other things near and dear, and simply fear of wildfire itself.
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzw7xx1DKdoimKE7eL_e-KWkRM2RFnnEILqxSuzNRaP6aVkYpJ2akGiMKm3yJYDruHWLIp92Sv0ziu_u0jJeRR3q-usjYoBeYwhkwLgDA5krebaoAZjAbHkJ5TqaFVWoLxaPXcwm1HjFrA/s1600/NSW+FRS+2027+hrs++121119.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzw7xx1DKdoimKE7eL_e-KWkRM2RFnnEILqxSuzNRaP6aVkYpJ2akGiMKm3yJYDruHWLIp92Sv0ziu_u0jJeRR3q-usjYoBeYwhkwLgDA5krebaoAZjAbHkJ5TqaFVWoLxaPXcwm1HjFrA/s400/NSW+FRS+2027+hrs++121119.JPG" width="400" height="220" data-original-width="1600" data-original-height="879" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 6</center>
<center>2030 hrs Tuesday 12 November 2019</center>
<P>
Finally, referring to my earlier question "how many other lives were shortened in the aftermath of the 2009 fires" I wonder what the longer term hidden cost will be with mental health issues or suicides out of the current NSW and Queensland fires.
<P>
Evacuation is the easy option, we can and must do better at protecting human life.
<P>
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bushfireaustraliahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11517140957697336597noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5747072893756120712.post-35931327318484892522019-09-20T14:11:00.000+10:002019-09-21T20:50:28.793+10:00Bushfire ‒ "Don't Burn our Future"An opportune day to prepare this posting as <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-20/thousands-of-businesses-join-national-school-strike-for-climate/11531612"> young people and others strike across the world </a> demanding that governments take action against climate change or global warming if you prefer.
<P>
The following placard was carried by one of the <a href="https://www.facebook.com/ABCGippsland/videos/393544351326941/"> Gippsland protestors</a> ‒ I wonder if she realises how widely that message applies.
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhlzwa1AnU9go88f-h9NdZEzK7IWZZoOOf2c2-8jbNjxWU6w4oC3P8x5qmn5KsV5q1ndJovHGoHFsF9PJHzIEaxH6MpVP-aQNVlGjCaPkvE4OCBdEcw-cIo9cARVTWaXqMVP56gNTt1BF_B/s1600/70476478_10156983265929825_1780033287268335616_o+Don%2527t+Burn+our+Future.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhlzwa1AnU9go88f-h9NdZEzK7IWZZoOOf2c2-8jbNjxWU6w4oC3P8x5qmn5KsV5q1ndJovHGoHFsF9PJHzIEaxH6MpVP-aQNVlGjCaPkvE4OCBdEcw-cIo9cARVTWaXqMVP56gNTt1BF_B/s400/70476478_10156983265929825_1780033287268335616_o+Don%2527t+Burn+our+Future.jpg" width="400" height="242" data-original-width="850" data-original-height="515" /></a></div>
<P>
A galvaniser of young people to involve themselves is <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/national/greta-thunberg-to-lawmakers-listen-to-the-scientists/2019/09/18/1a59a13a-52c6-4954-a5e2-18bb3a460736_video.html"> Greta Thunberg, a Swedish student</a>. You may be aware that Greta declined flying to the US, instead choosing to sail across the Atlantic to New York, asserting that air travel contributes to climate change.
<P>
On Saturday, 7 September 2019, I posted <a href="http://bushfireaustralia.blogspot.com/2019/09/wildfire-in-australia-dealing-with-new.html"> Wildfire in Australia — dealing with the new normal</a>. The key message in that posting:
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<P>
<a href="http://bushfireaustralia.blogspot.com/2019/09/wildfire-in-australia-dealing-with-new.html"> I continue to see governments and others claiming that climate change i.e. global warming is responsible for these fires, but not helping the broader community better prepare to withstand wildfire and its loss potential. By this I mean the forcing or encouraging people to leave their homes to agency firefighters and run the risk that they won't be defended due to lack of firefighters available for this task. I wonder how many of the homes lost will have succumbed to ember attack. </a></div></span></span>
I've been reading of politicians and emergency services leaders describing the recent fire activity in Queensland and New South Wales as "unprecedented". As to the accuracy of this description, to me that's no excuse.
<P>
Queensland in particular, why did the emergency management agencies not see this coming? Didn't they have people monitoring the drought factor; seek advice from the Bureau of Meteorology to learn of the potential for "unprecedented" <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/australias-changing-climate.shtml"> extreme fire weather conditions based climate change</a>?
<P>
Again, the question at the end of my 7 September posting, "How then to deal with the "new normal"? Clearly <b>thinking outside the box</b> is required to reduce environmental, social and economic loss from bushfire across Australia, but with their reliance on <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-11/queensland-bushfire-police-video/11502162?fbclid=IwAR0C2tHcMuLoFapWAOO2G83RPoO0EvDdbgmlZxQcHj_12knJBzmu1zfKbw4"> going it alone</a> and water/fire retardant bombing is that a "bridge to far"?
<P>
We have nothing to be smug about in Victoria, the public land manager DELWP has little to be proud of in meeting its responsibility for fire management ‒ <b>prevention and suppression</b> ‒ in Gippsland last summer. What was the otherwise avoidable damage done to the environment as a result of those fires, including harmful products of combustion released into the atmosphere?
<P>
And, Minister Lily D'Ambrosio, who has multiple portfolios involved, has since received what some may consider is a hefty pay increase. So much for ministerial responsibility and accountability.
<P>
Finally, the Emergency Management Commissioner has some significant challenges if social, economic and environmental loss is to be substantially reduced in a climate increasingly conducive to the outbreak and spread of bushfire in Victoria.
<P>
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bushfireaustraliahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11517140957697336597noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5747072893756120712.post-4004850418164920802019-09-07T21:14:00.000+10:002019-09-07T21:59:21.830+10:00Wildfire in Australia — dealing with the new normalOr bushfire if you prefer.
<P>
On Friday, 7 December 2018, I posted <a href="http://bushfireaustralia.blogspot.com/2018/12/wildfire-management-whats-normal-today.html"> "Wildfire management — what's normal today?”</a>
<P>
A couple of extracts from that posting:
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<P>
<a href="http://bushfireaustralia.blogspot.com/2018/12/wildfire-management-whats-normal-today.html"> "Wildfire management — what's normal today?” To me, a major cause of property loss and associated loss of life in the California fires is a general lack of understanding of how fire crosses the land and mandatory evacuation orders. From what I've seen from the media and other videos I consider that the agencies are too response focused and need to involve the general public in active defence of their homes where the threat is ember or firebrand attack. What then are the lessons to be learned?
<P>
In recent times I’ve become aware of people who refer to the new normal or new abnormal and of course they’re referring to their perceptions climate change or global warming on wildfire. But we should consider the new normal or new abnormal is more than just climate change.</a></div></span></span>
<P>
And here we go again, wildfires destroying homes and business and threatening lives and more property in <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-06/bushfires-threaten-properties-in-tenterfield/11487016"> New South Wales</a> and <a href="https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/multiple-communities-under-threat-as-fires-rage-across-queensland/news-story/ed76af88b88b3158c01437a6d155f4fe">Queensland</a>.
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnIn9vug0RS6vha6Q5HSROGEhe2i8KkxJNvy1BPPnllu9ygNbmDDkpLK4ZcyzDPD8Apd1Cc8xgT-6fqqlUP8ybCA3HsckWHkT9dCNnmaFHCQlnipYDDOmLGAieyuLQ23qmyCiPWmF7CwZ1/s1600/69858610_354603002087486_6480980618871046144_o.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnIn9vug0RS6vha6Q5HSROGEhe2i8KkxJNvy1BPPnllu9ygNbmDDkpLK4ZcyzDPD8Apd1Cc8xgT-6fqqlUP8ybCA3HsckWHkT9dCNnmaFHCQlnipYDDOmLGAieyuLQ23qmyCiPWmF7CwZ1/s400/69858610_354603002087486_6480980618871046144_o.jpg" width="400" height="300" data-original-width="1600" data-original-height="1200" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 1</center>
<center>Wolgan Road, Lidsdale, NSW, 6 September 2019</center>
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<center>Photo: Chris Lithgow</center></div></span></span>
<P>
<a href="https://www.facebook.com/chris.lithgow.94/videos/354594615421658/">Chris Lithgow has kindly allowed me to use his video of the fire in Lidsdale that shows an example of wildfire crossing land.</a>
<P>
No doubt the social, economic and environmental losses accruing from these fires and fires yet to occur before the wildfire season or summer is over will be enormous and we've not yet seen the contribution Victoria is likely to add to the losses.
<P>
I continue to see governments and others claiming that climate change i.e. global warming is responsible for these fires, but not helping the broader community better prepare to withstand wildfire and its loss potential. By this I mean the forcing or encouraging people to leave their homes to agency firefighters and run the risk that they won't be defended due to lack of firefighters available for this task. I wonder how many of the homes lost will have succumbed to ember attack.
<P>
How then to deal with the "new normal"?
<P>
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<!-- End of StatCounter Code for Blogger / Blogspot -->bushfireaustraliahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11517140957697336597noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5747072893756120712.post-13334326924749066602019-02-11T19:40:00.001+11:002019-02-11T19:40:29.230+11:00Wildfire in Australia ... what the hell is happening or should I say not happening?Referring particularly to Victoria, though it's the situation elsewhere in Australia, loss is increasing daily with the current spate of fires.
<P>
While I could rant about the failure to bring lightning strikes under control much earlier, this story in today's <i>The Age</i>, is worthy of wide consideration, <a href=" https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/we-are-not-doing-nearly-enough-to-prevent-the-impacts-of-bushfire-20190211-p50x0f.html"> "We are not doing nearly enough to prevent the impacts of bushfire"</a>, by Kate Cotter, CEO Bushfire Building Council of Australia.
<P>
The failure by those responsible for the well-being of us and the natural environment includes the failure to manage fuel levels in our forests and parks, resulting in heavy fuel loads that are a major contributor to fire intensity and consequent suppression difficulty.
<P>
What are the root causes of theses losses? I've written about them in previous postings and they involve non-performing governments and their fire and emergency and land management agencies and local government. And then there's the firefighting industry: air attack to mention one beneficiary. And the insurance industry is worthy of a mention, too. But more about the insurance industry later.
<P>
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bushfireaustraliahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11517140957697336597noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5747072893756120712.post-69980335106907888012018-12-07T13:59:00.001+11:002018-12-11T08:08:26.245+11:00Wildfire management — what's normal today?My posting <a href="http://bushfireaustralia.blogspot.com/2018/11/failure-two-stories-on-failure-of.html">Failure — two stories on the failure of wildfire management, one distant and the other closer to home, Friday, 23 November 2018</a>, raised some of the issues important to minimising loss in the event of wildfire. To this end I drew on issues that Australia might learn from that came to my attention from following the recent fires in California, USA.
<P>
When I posted the 23 November 2018 edition it was my intention to then look at a wildfire experience closer to home, the Christmas Day 2015 fire that engulfed a large part of Separation Creek and Wye River on the Otways coast.
<P>
To me, a major cause of property loss and associated loss of life in the California fires is a general lack of understanding of how fire crosses the land and mandatory evacuation orders. From what I've seen from the media and other videos I consider that the agencies are too response focused and need to involve the general public in active defence of their homes where the threat is ember or firebrand attack. What then are the lessons to be learned?
<P>
In recent times I’ve become aware of people who refer to the new normal or new abnormal and of course they’re referring to their perceptions climate change or global warming on wildfire. But we should consider the <i>new normal</i> or <i>new abnormal</i> is more than just climate change.
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxDf6iVxyGwMP7xDnUSYfkj3hAJNFbQhQaNZ06Yhn_66qbvGWHyHgWsxEPTqL6aYYdh3ME_B_61RWe9k2xwublpGM3P4gM-xhk3DlUXbspCWJKE55fup_aVDqbJtLtodGk0kkb4Ioe_e0o/s1600/newnormalchart.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxDf6iVxyGwMP7xDnUSYfkj3hAJNFbQhQaNZ06Yhn_66qbvGWHyHgWsxEPTqL6aYYdh3ME_B_61RWe9k2xwublpGM3P4gM-xhk3DlUXbspCWJKE55fup_aVDqbJtLtodGk0kkb4Ioe_e0o/s400/newnormalchart.jpg" width="400" height="225" data-original-width="738" data-original-height="415" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 1</center>
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<center>Graphic: <i>The Australian, 22 January 2018</i></center></div></span></span>
<P>
What's the graphic "Carnage Costs" have to do with wildfire?
<P>
On 22 January 2018 <i>The Australian</i> carried a story "Major city vigilance urged, with vehicle attacks the ‘new normal’
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<a href="http://exposed.net.au/newnormalfinal091218.pdf">Those living in major cities need to learn to normalise the possibility of hostile vehicle attacks by increasing vigilance as pedestrians, according to the clinical psychologist who helped shape the Bourke Street recovery effort.
<P>
One year after a car attack killed six in Melbourne’s CBD and just weeks after another car rampage on Flinders Street left one man dead, Rob Gordon said recovery was easier for those who accepted this new “indiscriminate violence”.
<P>
“We probably don’t realise how dangerous things are with cars racing around; we take for granted those risks and we’ve got to live around the new risks. We can normalise that once we accept it as this is our world and we have to deal with it,” Dr Gordon said. “The point we need to get to is just to be more cautious, just the way most people don’t go on to zebra crossings without looking at cars … we should do that, and other places too.”</a></div></span></span>
<P>
Causes me to wonder what the total suppression and recovery costs will be for Wye River‒Separation Creek. Could this money have been better spent on health and education in Victoria?
<P>
Preparing this posting during the afternoon of 7 December 2018 I listened to broadcast radio alerts to the communities in the Little River area concerning a wildfire — predominantly a grassfire albeit in stony country — with advice to the residents of Little River to evacuate.
<P> From a story in <i>The Age</i> later in the afternoon "Little River fire: Blaze contained but homes still at risk"
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<a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/evacuate-now-residents-urged-to-evacuate-due-to-grass-fire-west-of-melbourne-20181207-p50kum.html">At least 50 fire trucks, several large air tankers and dozens of firefighters are battling the 1240-hectare blaze, which has been contained south-east of the Princes Freeway but is not yet under control.</a></div></span></span>
<P>
Again the vexed question of evacuation, in this case an established township situated in open grasslands and having the benefit of a firebreak/control line in the form of a railway reserve aligned generally northeast southwest directly north of the closer settled part of the township.
<P>
Harking back to Dr Gordon's statement concerning the <i>new normal</i>, with global warming, be it short or long term its effect on the heavier fuels in our forests is a higher drought factor that leads to the heavier fuels more easily ignited and contributing to fire intensity that can in turn lead to pyrocumulus development above the fire.
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg442usI6nUPhkKJMxa4u7C6GkC0_E3FKnLFjzzlPEuSspSlrbKMJd6j4SZ4fVRdeA2jv39BezojP8u4mYJ3dUTRv0Xd07a3cqIaSIBQwHDl3rdJgWhxgKPTT81rbWYpP-exzvcOrPxmIrS/s1600/IMG_0579+blog+081218.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg442usI6nUPhkKJMxa4u7C6GkC0_E3FKnLFjzzlPEuSspSlrbKMJd6j4SZ4fVRdeA2jv39BezojP8u4mYJ3dUTRv0Xd07a3cqIaSIBQwHDl3rdJgWhxgKPTT81rbWYpP-exzvcOrPxmIrS/s400/IMG_0579+blog+081218.jpg" width="400" height="300" data-original-width="1181" data-original-height="886" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 2</center>
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<span class="CharacterStyle1"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 8.0pt;">
<center>Photo: Nicholson</center></div></span></span>
Plate 2 shows pyrocumulus development above the Kilmore East fire. The photo was taken late afternoon on 7 February 2009 in Sunbury, which is approximately 50 kilometres west of where I estimate the location of the cloud. A lot of fuel is required to enable the development of a cloud of that size. Later into the evening it was producing lightning and light falls of rain towards its south-eastern end. Clearly a very hot fire.
<P>
<b>Queensland fires spark federal inquiry</b>
<P>
In a story in <i>The Australian</i> on 7 December 2018, concerning the recent wildfires in Queensland, Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk is quoted:
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<P>
<a href="http://exposed.net.au/qldfirespala.pdf">"If you want to know what caused those conditions I'll give you an answer - its called climate change," she told reporters.</a></div></span></span>
<P>
Climate change, Premier Palaszczuk? Begs the questions, what was your government doing to prepare for the effect of climate change? Were your government's agencies monitoring the increasing dryness of Queensland and modifying or adapting emergency management plans to take account of increasing vulnerability to wildfire? And what of preparing the people of Queensland? Nothing, I assume from the decision to evacuate 8,000 people from Gracemere to Rockhampton as one example.
<P>
It seems from the story that the federal parliamentary inquiry will have a relatively narrow focus:
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<P>
<a href="http://exposed.net.au/qldfirespala.pdf"> The federal parliamentary inquiry will look at all states and territories and how
their laws on vegetation and land management affect farmers.</a></div></span></span>
<P>
Queenslanders, indeed all Australians deserve more and the inquiry should be expanded to consider the full gamut of factors that contributed to the fires and losses incurred, and the inquiry should not allow itself to be dominated by the emergency management agencies or their representatives. All wisdom concerning wildfire is not confined to the emergency services and the general public should be encouraged have input.
<P>
And again back to Dr Gordon's statement concerning the <i>new normal</i>.
<P>
<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12-08/little-river-suspicious-grassfire-investigated-as-firefighters/10597026"> It’s being reported that police are investigating the cause of the Little River fire considered to be "suspicious"</a>. Without going into detail, malicious fire-lighting or the "weaponising" of wildfire should be considered part of the <i>new normal</i>.
<P>
With 50 firefighting vehicles reported as being committed to the Little River fire, where did they come from and were their home areas weakened in the event of other fires occurring? Would a trained and supported community have reduced the need to draw so many resources from other parts of Victoria?
<P>
<b>Gracemere</b>
<P>
Gracemere is a prime example of the need to seriously review wildfire management arrangements in Australia in today's environment.
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKUJ-NLGls_wKO1CX9NTeaaHboY9QmaC02JnOROLBt5bKm312o9iYMEk0lrxhISiYODi_HP4-O0YBcNGkG_N34foU39TzXOBW3HFPfsgYNX6RwOcIuA0gBKveLJhj39Fp6-tXDR3yXk1es/s1600/Gracemere+Google+281118.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKUJ-NLGls_wKO1CX9NTeaaHboY9QmaC02JnOROLBt5bKm312o9iYMEk0lrxhISiYODi_HP4-O0YBcNGkG_N34foU39TzXOBW3HFPfsgYNX6RwOcIuA0gBKveLJhj39Fp6-tXDR3yXk1es/s400/Gracemere+Google+281118.jpg" width="400" height="300" data-original-width="1306" data-original-height="981" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 3</center>
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<span class="CharacterStyle1"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 8.0pt;">
<center>Photo: Google Earth</center></div></span></span>
<P>
Plate 3 is a Google Earth photo of Gracemere, Queensland. Take a stroll through and round the outskirts of the town using Google Earth Street View and determine for yourself its vulnerability to wildfire — comparable in size and surrounds with Hamilton or Horsham in Western Victoria and all surrounded predominantly by grassland.
<P>
Why then the decision to evacuate Gracemere?
<P>
<i><b>Victoria fire model helped save Queensland town</b></i>
<P>
From a story in <i>The Australian</i>, 29 November 2018, reasonably assumed to be from the Queensland Fire and Emergency Services:
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<P>
<a href="http://exposed.net.au/gracemerephoenix.pdf">"So we have the software but the inputs are uniquely Queensland. Queensland weather forecasts, Queensland fuels, Queensland terrain, and we've spent years refining, and that's an ongoing process, because any model is only as good as the data."
<P>
He said the software predicted the path and intensity of the fire very well on Wednesday although Gracemere was saved only due to the efforts of fire crews on the ground.</a></div></span></span>
<P>
Makes me wonder what the modelling actually predicted and who directed the evacuation.
<P>
The same questions could be asked concerning the advice to evacuate Little River Township.
<P>
This is what I wrote about in my last bushfire blog posting. How many homes, business, schools, etc, will be lost due there being no one there to extinguish embers as they begin to arrive, with homes, businesses and community infrastructure at risk far exceeding the availability of firefighting vehicles and firefighters to protect them?
<P>
Finally, from the USA:
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<span class="CharacterStyle1"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">
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<a href="https://www.npr.org/2018/12/09/673890767/fire-resistant-is-not-fire-proof-california-homeowners-discover?fbclid=IwAR2FiBp5c96O9NMln96SssI2RorPKd0FYyqL7J1C8j16vGbB4ewxPu-vrPE">When embers land on ornamental mulch, pine needles built up at the base of a wall or wooden deck furniture, they smolder. And those little fires can eventually ignite the house itself, even a fire-resistant house, especially if no one is there to put them out, as is usually the case in an evacuation zone during a megafire where firefighting resources are stretched thin.</a></div></span></span>
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bushfireaustraliahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11517140957697336597noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5747072893756120712.post-38212038185926180372018-11-23T15:23:00.000+11:002018-11-26T19:37:26.094+11:00Failure — two stories on the failure of wildfire management, one distant and the other closer to homeIn my blog posting <a href="http://bushfireaustralia.blogspot.com/2018/10/surviving-bushfire.html">SURVIVING BUSHFIRE, 26 October 2018</a>, I mainly covered two issues:
<br>
• Lessons for Australia in recent fires in California
<br>
• Differences in wildfire fuel Victoria v California
<P>
In dealing with wildfire fuel I gave examples of how native trees in Victoria are involved in or respond to wildfire compared with trees in California.
<P>
Media coverage of the California fires in Australia is sure to unnerve many in our community and prompts the question, why are the fire management agencies not explaining the differences in fire behaviour due to the vegetation involved? Or does the media coverage serve to strengthen the "leave early" policy?
<P>
<b>At this point I must stress that my criticisms are of fire and related emergency management policies, not firefighters who no doubt worked very hard and exposed to personal risk at times.</b>
<P>
<i><b>Out of the mouths of babes</b></i>
<P>
There has been much criticism and mocking of US President Donald Trump for his comment about raking:
<P>
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<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-19/why-donald-trump-says-raking-forests-would-stop-california-fires/10509984">Mr Trump said California authorities should copy Finland's example and rake forest floors to remove the material which fuels fires.</a></div></span></span>
<P>
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<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-19/why-donald-trump-says-raking-forests-would-stop-california-fires/10509984">... an expert said while Mr Trump may be right to talk about forest management, raking is not feasible.
<P>
Yana Valachovic, a forest adviser with the University of California, told the Washington Post that managing forests would actually reduce the severity of the blazes.
<P>
"His [Trump's] general sentiment is correct — that we need to manage fuels," she said.</a></div></span></span>
<P>
While raking the floor of the forest to remove the <i>fine fuel</i> is impractical, basically Trump is correct.
<P>
From the many graphic photographs and video clips posted by various media outlets it's quite apparent that extreme fire behaviour was occurring in the back country forests and being spurred along by chaparral and dry grassland. Add the effect of strong, dry Santa Ana wind notorious for driving wildfire in California and the result is fire behaviour shown in Plate 1.
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEil1cfm_H8OnFCbiJAUnn1Lk0ejK3LM2lOfxBmnEy9E_T2uT-rIWho6kcLNvPywVT-ct7O7F_zh_i92ZwGjfivgEWySkJdHXGuT559n2vWy2erEgpRniMQ6YpvFvskKCRNFhEMHZVlbVj9u/s1600/ButteCountyFire-1059345654-w+2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEil1cfm_H8OnFCbiJAUnn1Lk0ejK3LM2lOfxBmnEy9E_T2uT-rIWho6kcLNvPywVT-ct7O7F_zh_i92ZwGjfivgEWySkJdHXGuT559n2vWy2erEgpRniMQ6YpvFvskKCRNFhEMHZVlbVj9u/s400/ButteCountyFire-1059345654-w+2.jpg" width="400" height="267" data-original-width="582" data-original-height="388" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 1</center>
<center><a href="https://www.wired.com/story/these-wind-patterns-explain-why-californias-wildfires-are-so-bad/"> A plume of smoke rises above the Camp Fire as it moves through Paradise, California. High winds and low humidity caused the Camp Fire's rapid spread.</a></center>
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<span class="CharacterStyle1"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 8.0pt;">
<center>Photo <i>Justin Sullivan/Getty Images</i></center></div></span></span>
<P>
What then of Mr Trump's raking the ground? Clearly, a failure to properly manage the wildland, regardless of who is responsible together with the effect of global warming, has led to the growing intensity of fires in recent years, which includes the loss of lives of 19 Granite Mountain Hotshots firefighters in Arizona in 2013.
<P>
But other factors leading to the life and property loss we are in witnessing in recent times includes a failure to educate communities at risk on what to actually expect and how to survive coupled with mandatory evacuation in the teeth of a fire.
<P>
<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LtwutlbJQqI">While putting some at extreme risk</a>, ordering people out also deprives the agency firefighters of the support of many with homes at risk, who with training and support from the firefighting agencies <u>during the run of a fire</u> could do much to reduce property loss and related loss of life.
<P>
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsTU2aQfQOOm-NNAYgJf-7w7nObDVw6chnxQ2U21tSCaI6uaWQnkJXvQxWxziy2PaVBW_Uh33uMJJrrVfrjEJHrg6YUbE59HUEojl9ClmBlYVpfuklyB_CJ3a8mX2_fDXK5fGX9WF1e-ys/s1600/1533939637988.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="900" data-original-width="1600" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsTU2aQfQOOm-NNAYgJf-7w7nObDVw6chnxQ2U21tSCaI6uaWQnkJXvQxWxziy2PaVBW_Uh33uMJJrrVfrjEJHrg6YUbE59HUEojl9ClmBlYVpfuklyB_CJ3a8mX2_fDXK5fGX9WF1e-ys/s400/1533939637988.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 2</center>
<center>Land Park, Redding, California.</center>
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<center>Photo <i>Axios</i> 12 August 2018</center></div></span></span>
<P>
And what of suppression and recovery costs compared to money needing to be spent on effective wildland management and township protection, I expect it would have been mind-numbing, particularly when the cost of air tankers are included.
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEje8QBPDLqrmlm6QnmFXidJswmvDr-6yOiKicCDPQFRXhs4wE3umEYSM_XbLPrDgEC_wvPbwv08kx2-BHDvRIJ1KplyNR36YKQ0Ar5GQb7Zy1My-vx1WPtWVuy61kZo3QWnMyQxy70VrfFw/s1600/FUT+01.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEje8QBPDLqrmlm6QnmFXidJswmvDr-6yOiKicCDPQFRXhs4wE3umEYSM_XbLPrDgEC_wvPbwv08kx2-BHDvRIJ1KplyNR36YKQ0Ar5GQb7Zy1My-vx1WPtWVuy61kZo3QWnMyQxy70VrfFw/s400/FUT+01.jpg" width="400" height="232" data-original-width="962" data-original-height="557" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 3</center>
<center>CFA trialing a Bambi bucket beneath its light observation helicopter in the mid-80s</center>
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<span class="CharacterStyle1"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 8.0pt;">
<center>Photo <i>Nicholson</i></center></div></span></span>
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEioQXbqoMd5KoLFI8w9EgragpK4OGwa5uctumKyJDRAxVzftk8TFe9gPKg_9OqOb7AD1rNcoMiswSbg2Ggr0tDMFcWbUFvhNb4dZxeMtj53VD489fC3jDqToZDGgCtHGda1y6L4sp9L_p7L/s1600/crop+duster.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEioQXbqoMd5KoLFI8w9EgragpK4OGwa5uctumKyJDRAxVzftk8TFe9gPKg_9OqOb7AD1rNcoMiswSbg2Ggr0tDMFcWbUFvhNb4dZxeMtj53VD489fC3jDqToZDGgCtHGda1y6L4sp9L_p7L/s400/crop+duster.jpg" width="400" height="241" data-original-width="805" data-original-height="485" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 4</center>
<center>Dromader agricultural aircraft being demonstrated as a fire bomber in the early 80s.</center>
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<span class="CharacterStyle1"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 8.0pt;">
<center>Photo <i>Nicholson</i></center></div></span></span>
<P>
And on air tankers, I'm a supporter of helitankers (Plate 3) and small fixed wing agricultural aircraft (Plate 4) for their ability to be very precise with the delivery of their suppressant when compared with heavy fixed wing aircraft <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-23/boeing-737-deployed-in-newcastle-to-fight-bushfire-world-first/10547636">such as the B737 taken on in NSW for this summer wildfire season</a>.
<P>
This extract speaks on the limitations of air attack:
<P>
<P><div class="Style1" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 20pt; margin-right: 19.85pt; margin-top: 8.Opt; mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-line-break-override: restrictions; punctuation-wrap: simple; text-align: justify; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span class="CharacterStyle1"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">
<a href="https://www.wired.com/story/these-wind-patterns-explain-why-californias-wildfires-are-so-bad/">Firefighters on the ground have to keep their distance if the conflagration is moving too fast, or it will overwhelm them. Particularly high winds will either ground aircraft or mess with their accuracy when doing aerial drops of water or fire retardant. “It's not as impactful because the retardant gets spread out too far or it misses its area,” says Nauslar [Nick Nauslar, fire weather forecaster at NOAA].
<P>
Crews will still try drops if winds aren’t too high to fly aircraft, especially if there are structures or lives at risk. Indeed, helicopters have been dipping into Malibu mansions’ pools, despite the winds. The drops just might not be as effective as they would be in calmer conditions.</a></div></span></span>
<P>
An extract on cost-effectiveness from <i>MEGAFIRE The Race to Extinguish a Deadly Epidemic of Flame</i>, Michael Kodas, Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, Boston and New York, 2017, under the chapter heading The Fire-Industrial Complex:
<P>
<P><div class="Style1" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 20pt; margin-right: 19.85pt; margin-top: 8.Opt; mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-line-break-override: restrictions; punctuation-wrap: simple; text-align: justify; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span class="CharacterStyle1"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">
Weldon [George Weldon, former deputy director of fire and aviation for the Forest Service's northern region] cited air tankers, which he helped manage when he was fighting fires, as an example of how industry drives wildfire policy. "The [US] Forest Service is looking at spending $500 million [USD] to get new-generation air tankers," he said. "But there's never been a scientific study that demonstrates the effectiveness of large air tankers. If a study was ever done, in my opinion, they are not worth the money at all."
<P>
Weldon and other retired Forest Service firefighters cited estimates that air tankers are effective only about 30 percent of the time. "It's a prime example of how powerful the fire-industrial complex has become in a very short time," he said.
</div></span></span>
<P>
No study done on the efficacy of large air tankers? Not entirely correct. In my blog posting <a href="http://bushfireaustralia.blogspot.com/2016/12/setting-priorities-whats-important-and.html">"Setting priorities - what's important and not so important to a Coroner", Saturday, 24 December 2016,</a> I posed questions concerning the deployment of a large fixed wing air tanker to Wye River‒Separation Creek relatively late on Christmas Day 2015.
<P>
Referring to that posting, "For those interested in cost-effectiveness, and governments should be, the Bushfire CRC report <a href="http://www.bushfirecrc.com/sites/default/files/managed/resource/dc-10_evaluation_final_report.pdf"> "EVALUATION OF THE EFFECTIVENESS OF THE 10 TANKER AIR CARRIER DC-10 AIR TANKER, VICTORIA 2010"</a> should be food for serious consideration. Whilst it may look impressive to the gullible masses, could the money have been better spent on <b> prevention</b> over the years prior to the fire?"
<P>
Causes me to wonder, have we been seduced by the air tanker industry as they are not a panacea for preventing wildfire loss?
<P>
And on certain response comments to that blog posting, Karma at work?
<P>
Now, back to mandatory or officially encouraged evacuation. I find these stories from California encouraging <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/22/us/survivors-california-wildfires.html"> "Everything Around Him Burned. He Stayed Put, and Lived to Tell the Tale"</a> in the <i>New York Times</i> and <a href="https://fox40.com/2018/11/14/with-flames-all-around-them-hospital-staff-first-responders-keep-patients-safe-in-paradise-home/">With Flames All Around Them, Hospital Staff, Fire Chief Keep Patients Safe in Paradise Home</a> in <i>FOX 40</i>.
<P>
The FOX 40 story is interesting, indeed inspiring as it shows how lay people with the support of a trained and experienced firefighter successfully defended a home:
<P>
<P><div class="Style1" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 20pt; margin-right: 19.85pt; margin-top: 8.Opt; mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-line-break-override: restrictions; punctuation-wrap: simple; text-align: justify; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span class="CharacterStyle1"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">
<P>
Eventually, they ran into Paradise Fire Chief David Hawks.
<P>
"There’s a dog door here that one of the paramedics made access to it. We unlocked the garage, moved patients into this home and sheltered them in place," Hawks told FOX40.
<P>
What happened next was nothing short of amazing. Emergency medical technicians and nurses became stand-in firefighters, some getting on the roof of the home to clear gutters of brush <i>sic</i> [actually pine needles]. They hosed down the outer edge of the property.
<P>
They saved the home, all while their patients were kept safe inside.
<P>
"He said, 'You do this, you do this, you do this,'" Ferguson said. "All of us shifted our minds to what do we need to do for survival mode here."
<P>
"They followed directions," Hawks said. "They did exactly what I asked them to do."
<P>
Amid a neighborhood devastated by the Camp Fire, the Chloe Court home survived -- and so did all the patients and medical staff inside.
</div></span></span>
<P>
Listen to Chief Hawks in the video at the head of the FOX40 story (above) as he describes the action necessary to successfully defend that house, it's not rocket science.
<P>
<a href="http://www.readyforwildfire.org/Prepare-For-Wildfire/">Unfortunately, wildfire survival planning at individual level is still predicated on evacuation.</a>
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRQ1fEpNy21pcsaXnozVNMDf3iZLlhrdZ3SMw2NDvtS21lzUp68agyKvhAEOVhvsR501O1oZLRR7dI74FgfefrqDUpIHBdSqHcSzDISKAJ0xUnvM_mWwiuIQ7zPjALxT6o9v-N5DbVrBhu/s1600/Wye039+211018.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRQ1fEpNy21pcsaXnozVNMDf3iZLlhrdZ3SMw2NDvtS21lzUp68agyKvhAEOVhvsR501O1oZLRR7dI74FgfefrqDUpIHBdSqHcSzDISKAJ0xUnvM_mWwiuIQ7zPjALxT6o9v-N5DbVrBhu/s400/Wye039+211018.jpg" width="400" height="267" data-original-width="1600" data-original-height="1069" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 5</center>
<center>Jamieson Creek fire rampaging towards the east on Christmas Day 2015 prior to the wind direction changing to push it into Wye River‒Separation Creek</center>
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<span class="CharacterStyle1"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 8.0pt;">
<center>Photo <i>Stoios</i></center></div></span></span>
<P>
Interesting the similarity between the scenes in Plate 1 and Plate 5. A fundamental difference between the two situations, the people under threat from the Camp Fire had a few short hours to take action compared with the people of Wye River-Separation Creek — it seems the Incident Controller had at least from 21 December 2015, four days, and that intelligence firmed up on 23 December, to organise the defence of those two communities with the participation of property owners prepared to assist. Why did this preparation not happen and it was left to well into Christmas Day before people were urged to leave?
<P>
<a href="http://wildfiremagazine.org/article/review-megafirethe-race-to-extinguish-a-deadly-epidemic-of-flame/"> For those interested in <i>MEGAFIRE The Race to Extinguish a Deadly Epidemic of Flame</i> here is a review in <i>Wildfire Magazine</i></a>
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bushfireaustraliahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11517140957697336597noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5747072893756120712.post-27006126666558495422018-10-26T15:21:00.003+11:002020-09-15T13:21:21.998+10:00Surviving BushfireLast Saturday, 27 October, I delivered a session at a Safe Healthy Summers Region Forum hosted by Nillumbik Shire Council, at Eltham:
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZCtAQbWD35Q1Hh0JVmWBlUywLSbJixAjBbPS_6kADHjNVqk41e6fzqU4kETSFkn6bDdCisd9GeEetDrIYQogGXJW-B5k7TPUF62NGbcEDyNSxF6W8W3LoNRY-ix2vD8JI6G_duBh0ricw/s1600/bushfirenillumbik.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZCtAQbWD35Q1Hh0JVmWBlUywLSbJixAjBbPS_6kADHjNVqk41e6fzqU4kETSFkn6bDdCisd9GeEetDrIYQogGXJW-B5k7TPUF62NGbcEDyNSxF6W8W3LoNRY-ix2vD8JI6G_duBh0ricw/s320/bushfirenillumbik.jpg" width="320" height="185" data-original-width="709" data-original-height="409" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 1</center>
<center>First page from my PowerPoint presentation</center>
<P>
The brief was to present my views on the recent wildfires (bushfires) that ravaged parts of California, USA; Algarve, Portugal; and around Athens, Greece and what we might learn from those fires.
<P>
In doing so I sought to mention a broader context of loss due to wildfire:
<br>
• human life
<br>
• pets and other domesticated animals
<br>
• family home
<br>
• sources of income e.g. tools of trade, farm animals, crops
<br>
• consequential effect on relationships in the family suffering loss
<br>
• consequential medical issues associated with suffering loss
<P>
Since Saturday while research wildfire information from the US I've added two more, important issues for another day:
<br>
• deleterious effect on the natural environment
<br>
• avoidable impost on the public purse
<P>
<b>Recent fires in North America, Portugal and Greece … what lessons for Australia?</b>
<P>
Having the benefit of spending time with forestry and fire agencies in Canada and the USA and being a long term student of fire behaviour and community responses generally I do have some understanding of wildfires and their impact in North America.
<P>
Concerning the fires in Algarve and Greece, in places the vegetation is similar to South-eastern Australia and the wildfire problem is similar to ours.
<P>
Currently we Victorians have the potential benefit of the following to mitigate wildfire loss:
<br>
• A “pecuniary interest” clause in the Country Fire Authority Act 1958 (CFA Act) that prevents people being forced to evacuate in the event wildfire does or may threaten their home;
<br>
• A provision in the CFA Act that enables the serving of “fire prevention notices” to abate fire hazards on private land;
<br>
• A provision in the CFA Act that places fire prevention or mitigation responsibilities on municipalities and public authorities;
<br>
• An Australian Standard for construction in wildfdire-prone areas: AS 3959; and
<br>
• CFA volunteer brigades embedded in much of the urban/rural interface and beyond enabling actual community involvement in emergency management.
<P>
<b>Lessons for us?</b>
<P>
The folly of widespread evacuation, be it voluntary or mandatory evacuation orders issued.
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsTU2aQfQOOm-NNAYgJf-7w7nObDVw6chnxQ2U21tSCaI6uaWQnkJXvQxWxziy2PaVBW_Uh33uMJJrrVfrjEJHrg6YUbE59HUEojl9ClmBlYVpfuklyB_CJ3a8mX2_fDXK5fGX9WF1e-ys/s1600/1533939637988.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsTU2aQfQOOm-NNAYgJf-7w7nObDVw6chnxQ2U21tSCaI6uaWQnkJXvQxWxziy2PaVBW_Uh33uMJJrrVfrjEJHrg6YUbE59HUEojl9ClmBlYVpfuklyB_CJ3a8mX2_fDXK5fGX9WF1e-ys/s400/1533939637988.png" width="400" height="225" data-original-width="1600" data-original-height="900" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 2</center>
<center>Land Park, Redding, California.</center>
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<span class="CharacterStyle1"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 8.0pt;">
<center>Photo <i>Axios</i> 12 August 2018</center></div></span></span>
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhht71jD941VjxjTkdQ7GJATGdrYK4wz1iUnv2ye5Hb7g8DhcZ-bTJiVotghL9-AGRMOdg-9W29eHdXDOVHwyTPOYiMgpix1Yzn2EBk3eFW85XQYZ2GpmeLicCU1CPPGAhadXKNcBvQsOwn/s1600/1533939739651.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhht71jD941VjxjTkdQ7GJATGdrYK4wz1iUnv2ye5Hb7g8DhcZ-bTJiVotghL9-AGRMOdg-9W29eHdXDOVHwyTPOYiMgpix1Yzn2EBk3eFW85XQYZ2GpmeLicCU1CPPGAhadXKNcBvQsOwn/s400/1533939739651.png" width="400" height="225" data-original-width="1600" data-original-height="900" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 3</center>
<center>Swasey Drive, Redding, California.</center>
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<span class="CharacterStyle1"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 8.0pt;">
<center>Photo <i>Axios</i> 12 August 2018</center></div></span></span>
<P>
Why folly? See what remains unburnt and not even scorched in Plates 2 and 3 and I’m referring to the vegetation.
<P>
The vegetation that remains undamaged is due to it being beyond flame contact and radiant heat sufficient to scorch that vegetation.
<P>
<b>How wildfire travels across the landscape</b>
<P>
Basically, fire travels across the landscape by igniting the fine fuel or vegetation such as dry grass, fallen dead leaves and twigs up to pencil size. Depending on the dryness of the heavier fuels such as dead-and-down tree limbs the fine fuel acts as “kindling” for the heavier fuels.
<P>
<b>Nature of the fuel or vegetation in California compared with South-eastern Australia</b>
<P>
The vegetation where the recent fires have occurred can be broadly described as grassland, chaparral and conifer forests i.e. pine and cypress trees.
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2Mt5lY8Bg-m-V5v3-4cf5xv7ynyYjZ__Y8JyNwl1p5WHI8_3FE4zN3vhHt99VeFojf2Bz2r7AXz0S1MMZCMMk-AS2Mh5YQ46pfi1zAmX2G0nl4deTxZ_5uI_S9hnvPdpJxXEWouSDIyTh/s1600/555_PS-A-White-Ceanothus.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2Mt5lY8Bg-m-V5v3-4cf5xv7ynyYjZ__Y8JyNwl1p5WHI8_3FE4zN3vhHt99VeFojf2Bz2r7AXz0S1MMZCMMk-AS2Mh5YQ46pfi1zAmX2G0nl4deTxZ_5uI_S9hnvPdpJxXEWouSDIyTh/s400/555_PS-A-White-Ceanothus.jpg" width="400" height="260" data-original-width="555" data-original-height="361" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 4</center>
<center>An example of chaparral in California.</center>
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<span class="CharacterStyle1"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 8.0pt;">
<center>Photo: California Chaparral Institute</center></div></span></span>
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7gRbULq0VgJff0BHWTUgzqR2OPphOnlI034mVGR3E6cFFvnY_Q1zplrDlk1ItBiS6XisS0CxW5jiqclc8gQhFe-ot2reXwjhBzW_WcF_vsvOuA28QWb4Mrow59F2pit7jsNPu9TSPwQYY/s1600/brushfire-sm.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7gRbULq0VgJff0BHWTUgzqR2OPphOnlI034mVGR3E6cFFvnY_Q1zplrDlk1ItBiS6XisS0CxW5jiqclc8gQhFe-ot2reXwjhBzW_WcF_vsvOuA28QWb4Mrow59F2pit7jsNPu9TSPwQYY/s400/brushfire-sm.jpg" width="400" height="267" data-original-width="1200" data-original-height="800" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 5</center>
<center>Chaparral fire in California.</center>
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<span class="CharacterStyle1"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 8.0pt;">
<center>Photo: East County Magazine, San Diego, California</center></div></span></span>
<P>
Heath land in Victoria, such as that shown in the following two photographs, is similar to chaparral:
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNmvauHzItoDciF15uT6oekSJlB8J4uvjCGwc_V9JWAXMBBjc5AjN0ksVUNSaudKM8xO6kZqL-ryesRG_I3CSEyHpcDo1aP_EgTUXi-xlXXWNHRo89j1ML5XhAnSxDraJjT3U2MSgPWjQG/s1600/IMG_9526+251018.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNmvauHzItoDciF15uT6oekSJlB8J4uvjCGwc_V9JWAXMBBjc5AjN0ksVUNSaudKM8xO6kZqL-ryesRG_I3CSEyHpcDo1aP_EgTUXi-xlXXWNHRo89j1ML5XhAnSxDraJjT3U2MSgPWjQG/s400/IMG_9526+251018.jpg" width="400" height="300" data-original-width="1183" data-original-height="888" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 6</center>
<center>Heath at Anglesea, Victoria.</center>
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<span class="CharacterStyle1"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 8.0pt;">
<center>Photo: John Nicholson</center></div></span></span>
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9beNksbawXPHxiadD_S4yPbUfCWfd74sla0LJ64nvc5AdnsUXzOFJuPke84rAO3UrEVXW1zXf0r7Lk2IcQUTutlSY3WHebr8DLUSwQXFwP73jQqhaisWPBqB4g0T7QE9K4yhxMHGbKI3i/s1600/IMG_1045_18.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9beNksbawXPHxiadD_S4yPbUfCWfd74sla0LJ64nvc5AdnsUXzOFJuPke84rAO3UrEVXW1zXf0r7Lk2IcQUTutlSY3WHebr8DLUSwQXFwP73jQqhaisWPBqB4g0T7QE9K4yhxMHGbKI3i/s400/IMG_1045_18.jpg" width="400" height="300" data-original-width="740" data-original-height="555" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 7</center>
<center>Heath and low level scrub at Fairhaven, Victoria.</center>
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<span class="CharacterStyle1"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 8.0pt;">
<center>Photo: John Nicholson</center></div></span></span>
<P>
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<center>Plate 8</center>
<center>Chaparral, cypress and pines in California.</center>
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<span class="CharacterStyle1"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 8.0pt;">
<center>Photo: FireScape, Arizona, USA</center></div></span></span>
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqbnxnoK8KHb3Eeqo9C-X5cmxiIyUsoDQW30cBJBIb83o70WpJRRwjvAllRgQDgmg0PtNNFjBXjB-jX2KBdpqVbfv7YU9oxwVi4O0os0K7WqSl9hg3b795d1Zap8Yn9xzvQYq4I8g6jlA4/s1600/MECKENNA.MENDOCINO.COMPLEX.FIRE_.DSC_7166.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqbnxnoK8KHb3Eeqo9C-X5cmxiIyUsoDQW30cBJBIb83o70WpJRRwjvAllRgQDgmg0PtNNFjBXjB-jX2KBdpqVbfv7YU9oxwVi4O0os0K7WqSl9hg3b795d1Zap8Yn9xzvQYq4I8g6jlA4/s400/MECKENNA.MENDOCINO.COMPLEX.FIRE_.DSC_7166.jpg" width="400" height="266" data-original-width="1600" data-original-height="1065" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 9</center>
<center>Mendocino Complex Fire in pines, California, USA.</center>
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<span class="CharacterStyle1"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 8.0pt;">
<center>Photo: Redhead Blackbelt, Northern California, USA</center></div></span></span>
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiAHnsBnMtPl9dPbhHWQuRitlZHeLoym2ZkG3tmLIjEebvOdXyJhpPlQhzYiT9VJIxFvOQUdRo8SHgTPLvnFnwp7dC4kszxb1ZmNVMiPtrKlnGGkfgTln5o1CpWXL6kI4PcLx2QIP-K57vg/s1600/IMG_1069+241018.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiAHnsBnMtPl9dPbhHWQuRitlZHeLoym2ZkG3tmLIjEebvOdXyJhpPlQhzYiT9VJIxFvOQUdRo8SHgTPLvnFnwp7dC4kszxb1ZmNVMiPtrKlnGGkfgTln5o1CpWXL6kI4PcLx2QIP-K57vg/s400/IMG_1069+241018.jpg" width="400" height="300" data-original-width="1184" data-original-height="889" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 10</center>
<center>Young pine plantation near Harrietville, Victoria.</center>
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<span class="CharacterStyle1"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 8.0pt;">
<center>Photo: John Nicholson</center></div></span></span>
<P>
Plate 10 is included to show the difference between pines and our native eucalypt trees. As shown in Plate 9 pines burn vigorously when ignited and like eucalypt species contain volatiles. However, unlike eucalypt canopies that tend to have significant gaps between the canopy and surface fine fuels or "kindling", pine and cypress tree canopies tend to be closer to the ground and compact compared to eucalypts.
<P>
Following are a series of photographs I've taken over the years following fires that have involved trees and shrubs in Victoria.
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMrtFUeEKf9wVrXS6DfnbIko3rtaOpSxannev4sPdJnQJStjp4jlfcY_dEi5x2UYrEXpN7MCfy57C9cUL_VvbpGo1bd6izGWSoKwu8zAB3Hhv3d3DYT8fgsGNGTZUMOl7yp8wfmDRxLTDn/s1600/01+041016.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="267" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMrtFUeEKf9wVrXS6DfnbIko3rtaOpSxannev4sPdJnQJStjp4jlfcY_dEi5x2UYrEXpN7MCfy57C9cUL_VvbpGo1bd6izGWSoKwu8zAB3Hhv3d3DYT8fgsGNGTZUMOl7yp8wfmDRxLTDn/s400/01+041016.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 11</center>
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<span class="CharacterStyle1"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 8.0pt;">
<center>Photo: John Nicholson</center></div></span></span>
<P>
Plate 11 is a view of Firth Park in the Lerderderg State Park a few days after the "Ash Wednesday 1983" fire showing an absence of "crown" or tree canopy fire in the forest in the background. Note the singed trees or shrubs in the foreground.
<P>
Plates 12 and 13 are further south from Firth Park towards Bacchus Marsh.
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<center>Plate 12</center>
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<span class="CharacterStyle1"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 8.0pt;">
<center>Photo: John Nicholson</center></div></span></span>
<P>
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<center>Plate 13</center>
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<span class="CharacterStyle1"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 8.0pt;">
<center>Photo: John Nicholson</center></div></span></span>
<P>
What is particularly significant about Plates 12 and 13 apart from the lack of crown fire? <b>The unburnt shrubs/suckers at the base of the trees!</b>
<P>
Below from my blog posting of<a href="http://bushfireaustralia.blogspot.com.au/2014/06/bushfire-explained-part-3-what-burns.html"> 22 June 2014</a> are two examples of trees and shrubs in the path of the 9 February 2014 Gisborne fire as it travelled northeast towards Riddells Creek after the wind change.
<P>
The fire weather conditions this day were described as being the worst since 7 February 2009 (Black Saturday). Again, observe the vegetation close to the ground left unburnt when the fast moving grass fire passed.
<P>
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<center>Plate 14</center>
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<center>Photo: John Nicholson</center></div></span></span>
<P>
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<center>Plate 15</center>
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<center>Photo: John Nicholson</center></div></span></span>
<P>
Plate 15 is particularly significant in that cypress trees along the fence line were only scorched.
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<center>Plate 16</center>
<center>Skyline Road, Christmas Hills, post 7 January 2009</center>
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<center>Photo: Bell</center></div></span></span>
<P>
The arrow in Plate 16 points to a gap in the tree canopy that reveals undamaged eucalypt tree canopies in the background that were certainly in the path of the fire. Those eucalypts are on one of the higher points on the western side of Skyline Road.
<P>
<b>Apart from heath and low scrub, the evidence is that crown fire is a relatively rare occurrence in the Victorian wildfire environment compared with how fire moves across the landscape in California. Unfortunately, the fires in California, Algarve and Greece featured large in Australian media and undoubtedly served to frighten lay people — counterproductive to building a wildfire resistant community.</b>
<P>
Why then the loss of dwellings?
<P>
Plates 2 and 3 show unburnt vegetation around the remains of dwellings, and far more numerous than shown here. The unburnt vegetation tells us that consistent flames and radiant heat sufficient to ignite did not reach these dwellings.
<P>
The evidence suggests they were ignited by windborne embers from fire further distant. The reason for this ignition can vary, but one cause may have been embers landing on easily ignited bituminous roofing tiles preheated by the heat of the day plus hot air from the fire. Another cause may have been embers landing in vegetative mulch and igniting flammable vegetation close to windows, the glass eventually breaking and allowing fire to reach inside the dwelling.
<P>
This fire had also developed into what some may refer to as a "fire storm" with wind so strong as to damage the dwellings and allow ember penetration.
<P>
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<center>Plate 17</center>
<center>Land Park, Redding, California.</center>
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<center>Photo: Google Earth 28 June 2016</center></div></span></span>
<P>
Plate 17 is the current pre-fire photo of the land shown in Plate 2. There is nothing dramatic about the vegetation shown and if nothing had changed there was vegetation removal at the rear of the western side of the development and a much broader clearing to the north to inhibit flame contact and dangerous radiant heat reaching the dwellings.
<P>
The two yellow arrows point to backyard swimming pools that are points of reference for those who want to go exploring with Google Street View — views towards the west from further north along Buenaventura Boulevard show the vegetation involved.
<P>
<b>How wildfire arrives</b>
<P>
Windborne embers and firebrands are the major method of fire spread by igniting fresh fuel ahead of the main fire front. This process is known “spotting”, as in the lighting of “spot fires” or fires starting in separated spots ahead of the fire front. To be a threat, this burning material must be sufficiently light in weight to be carried by wind while continuing to flame or smoulder sufficiently long enough to ignite fresh fuel.
<P>
I categorise “spotting” as follows:
<P>
<b><i>Embers</i></b>
<P>
The transmission of light burning or smouldering material generally horizontally above ground out to a distance of 100 metres and usually in the form of burning dead eucalypt leaves and other material of a similar weight picked up off the ground, and possibly the larger forms of grass seed heads or burning stringybark from tree trunks.
<P>
Stringybark eucalypts, where the bark has not been given a recent “haircut” — singed by fire leaving the bark tight against the trunk with little or no fine fibres available to be ignited — will shed sparks and embers as fire travels up the bark. In strong wind stringybarks can be a prolific source of embers over a relatively short distance until all the fibrous aerated bark has been consumed.
<P>
<b><i>Firebrands</i></b>
<P>
Long distance spotting commonly involves the bark from gum species eucalypts, some of which shed their bark in the form of long ribbons that are susceptible to being carried aloft in the convection column or updraft above the fire. These ribbons of bark are generally aerodynamically shaped and consequently carry further in the upper wind. Due to their size they can remain alight for some time before falling to the ground and starting new fires, sometimes several kilometres downwind from the main fire. Plate 18 shows examples of gum bark ribbons.
<P>
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<center>Plate 18</center>
<center>Examples of gum bark indicated by the arrows.</center>
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<center>Photo: John Nicholson</center></div></span></span>
<P>
<b><i>Wye River–Separation Creek, Christmas Day 2015</i></b>
<P>
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<center>Plate 19</center>
<center>Wye River, Victoria, Christmas Day 201.</center>
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<center>Photo: Stoios</center></div></span></span>
<P>
Plate 19 shows spot fires burning under the influence of upslope in the absence of wind. The spots were due to gum bark firebrands further north following the break-out of the Jamieson Creek fire that occurred on 19 December 2015.
<P>
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<center>Plate 20</center>
<center>Wye River, Victoria, 11 February 2016</center>
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<center>Photo: John Nicholson</center></div></span></span>
<P>
Plate 20 shows the aftermath of the Christmas Day fire, with scorched tree canopies and virtually no true "crowning", but 116 houses lost in Wye River–Separation Creek. Plate 21 show the effect of the fire on vegetation on the high side of Karingal Drive where there were many houses lost.
<P>
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<center>Plate 21</center>
<center>Wye River, Victoria, 11 February 2016</center>
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<center>Photo: John Nicholson</center></div></span></span>
<P>
Why only scorching as shown in Plates 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, and 21? My opinion is that there was insufficient surface fine fuel or "kindling" under those trees and shrubs to provide sufficient heat to dry the foliage to the stage where it would actually burn.
<P>
<b><i>Anglers Rest, Victoria, 2003</i></b>
<P>
<a href="http://exposed.net.au/anglersrest2003.mp4">Here is an example of how fire crosses the land in an under-story fuel reduced environment</a>. The video was recorded at Anglers Rest north of Omeo in January 2003 when the building was directly threatened — may take time to load but worth waiting. It shows some well prepared people protecting the building from fire in very windy conditions. The video shows fire moving past as "spot fires" that eventually join, but much of the fuel has been consumed by the time the "spots" join. Also note no "crowning".
<P>
I've since found the following of interest:
<P>
<b>1. Concerning trees reducing wind speed</b>
<P>
<a href="http://exposed.net.au/rec2014033.pdf">During my presentation I mentioned that it's well established that trees act as a wind break.</a>
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<P>
Following is an extract from an ABC News story:
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<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-27/land-wind-speeds-slowing-down-over-land-the-stilling/10392980">One [opinion] is that increased carbon dioxide is fueling tree and plant growth, which is increasing surface friction and reducing surface wind speeds. Basically, there is more stuff on the surface getting in the way.</a></div></span></span>
<P>
<b>2. Global warming and wildfire</b>
<P>
A thought-provoking BBC podcast on the effect of global warming on wildfire <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3csxlq9">"The Long Hot Summer, Heatwave" Episode 1 of 2</a>.
<P>Between 12 minutes and 17 minutes running time the podcast covers wildfire in California, USA, earlier this year and the believed impact of global warming, and note the comment "perpetual fire season" — some are referring to this as the "new normal".
<a href="https://www.axios.com/in-photos-what-california-fire-tornado-left-behind-c7d4ac9c-dd50-48db-a6a7-7b6a5b549fe4.html">Some photos and comments on the Carr fire here</a>
<P>
<b>3. Evacuation</b>
<P>
What does this mean for Australia? Given the early onset of fires in Eastern Victoria this year it seriously questions the appropriateness of the one-size-fits-all leave early message if life loss is to be prevented and property loss minimised.
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<span class="CharacterStyle1"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 8.0pt;">
<center>Photo: John Nicholson</center></div></span></span>
<P>
<b>Works in progress</b>
<P>
There is more I would like to add, but this post is already too long. Consequently, I will follow this with another in the near future. Feel free to use the "following" facility in the side margin if you want to receive future posts.
<P>
<b>Finally, please make your own inquiries about how much <i>defensive space</i> you need to have around your home or out-buildings, as individual circumstances vary according to slope aspect, vegetation type/s and the building's fire resistance capability. Also obtain CFA's literature dealing with bushfire survival, property preparation and leaving early.</b>
<P>
<b>References</b>
<P>
While speaking about fire behavior I mentioned <i>Bushfires in Australia</i>, R.H. Luke and A.G. McArthur.
<P>
My copy is old: Department of Primary Industry,Forestry and Timber Bureau, CSIRO Division of Forest Research, AGPS, Canberra, 1978. It is still current and I consider it a preeminent textbook for those wanting to learn about wildfire in Australia. It should still be available somewhere.
<P>
<u>Meantime, if you have a question or comment please use the facility at the foot of this posting.</u>
<P>
<b>Note that the coloured text indicates links to further information to be clicked on.</b>
<P>
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<span class="CharacterStyle1"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 8.0pt;">
<center>I have taken the liberty of using photographs that are not mine and have endeavoured to acknowledge the owners or copyright holders. The photos are used for educational purposes. If anyone is troubled by this please let me know via the comments facility at the bottom of this posting </center></div></span></span>
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bushfireaustraliahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11517140957697336597noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5747072893756120712.post-56661619348453996012018-06-15T13:07:00.000+10:002019-10-21T14:39:26.273+11:00Fire suppression before prevention — but at what cost?In recent times Victorians have seen serious fires involving a high rise residential building at Docklands, a waste storage facility at Coolaroo and the St Patrick's Day fires in Western Victoria.
<P>
In every case I will argue that there are government agencies, both local and state, that have prevention responsibilities both statutory and/or moral to mitigate the risk of fire in such environments. These agencies and government officers include the fire services, EPA, municipal councils, Emergency Management Commissioner and Inspector General for Emergency Management (IGEM).
<P>
Each of these fires disrupted communities and cost a fortune to make safe. Then there is the cost we all carry in helping affected people recover.
<P>
The <a href="https://www.grenfelltowerinquiry.org.uk/">Grenfell Tower fire in London</a>, for which the fire brigade has received some criticism, interests me as it should the fire agencies in Australia — there are important lessons to be learned as there are parallels in Victoria, indeed Australia.
<P>
One may well ask why these avoidable losses are increasingly occurring when it should be the opposite. It's because governments and their senior public sector minions allocate the bulk of financial resources into fire suppression and cover the losses when they inevitably occur, losses that can be enormous in both financial costs across the whole community and particularly by those who suffer directly and in many cases are affected emotionally.
<P>
An example of finances increasingly being directed to suppression is the Emergency Management Commissioner <a href="https://www.thecourier.com.au/story/5251922/night-vision-goggles-the-new-firefighting-tool-for-aerial-crews/">fostering the use of helicopters to fight fires at night</a>, when he knows that the time air attack is most required is when weather conditions ground these aircraft, day or night. And all the while people are being encouraged to leave their homes undefended and risk losing them. There's more to providing leadership in emergency management than promoting air attack, which comes at considerable cost and is not a panacea.
<P>
Probably the most recent example of a very costly failure of wildfire risk management are the St Patrick's Day 2018 fires in Western Victoria that I began to cover in my blog posting on Saturday, 14 April 2018 <a href="http://bushfireaustralia.blogspot.com/2018/04/wildfires-caused-by-electrical.html"> "Wildfires caused by the electrical distribution system ... why?</a>
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<center>Plate 1</center>
<center>Pole supporting 22,000 volt conductors at The Sisters</center>
<center>responsible for one of the St Patrick's Day fires.</center>
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<span class="CharacterStyle1"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 8.0pt;">
<center>Photo <i>The [Warrnambool] Standard</i> 27 March 2018</center></div></span></span>
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Towards the end of the posting "Wildfires caused by the electrical distribution system ... why?" I referred to the Government appointed board of inquiry into the occurrence of bush and grass fires in Victoria in 1977 conducted by Sir Edward Hamilton Esler Barber, Q.C., former judge of the Supreme Court of Victoria and concluded with the final two comments:
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Considering the action taken following the release of Barber's report and recommendations, clearly CFA felt chastened by his censure of its poor fire prevention performance.
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Enough for now with more to follow including the eventual fate of section 44, but bells already ringing for anyone yet?</div></span></span>
<P>
First, on CFA feeling chastened by Barber's censure.
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<b>The Regional Officer in Charge</b>
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Shortly after being transferred from Region Nine, Warragul, to Region 14, Sunbury, in late 1977, CFA directed officers in charge of fire control regions that reports according to section 44 CFA Act and listing issues to be covered were to be submitted regularly, regardless of whether a fire hazard was detected or not.
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As I remember that was either late 1977 or early 1978 and the first time I can recall section 44 was to be addressed, and I commenced working in fire control regions in late 1967.
<P> At that time regions had an officer in charge and a deputy and one transport vehicle. To get us both out on the road inspecting, CFA provided an additional vehicle to each region. <a href=" http://exposed.net.au/cfabill.pdf "> Though years late it was.</a>
<P>
I can remember driving with one eye on the road and the other on power lines and trees likely in contact and long spans where spreaders to prevent conductor clash should be considered.
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<center>Plate 2</center>
<center>Another view of the fallen pole at The Sisters shown in Plate 1</center>
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<span class="CharacterStyle1"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 8.0pt;">
<center>Photo <i>ABC News</i> 22 March 2018</center></div></span></span>
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<center>Plate 3</center>
<center>Close up of the braced base of the pole shown in Plate 2</center>
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<span class="CharacterStyle1"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 8.0pt;">
<center>Photo <i>ABC News</i> 22 March 2018</center></div></span></span>
<P>
Over time my interest extended to tired, cracked old timber poles, timber poles with flammable vegetation around them, braced poles that should have been replaced and suspect timber cross arms.
<P>
The parts of the pole shown in Plates 2 and 3 show that it was braced, braced because a pole inspector considered it was at risk of falling over.
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Braced for 20 years is one estimate I've heard, but happy to be corrected if provided with proof that I'm wrong.
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<center>Plate 4</center>
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<span class="CharacterStyle1"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 8.0pt;">
<center>Photo: John Nicholson</center></div></span></span>
<P>
Plate 4 shows a 22,000 volt line on the eastern side of the Geelong–Bacchus Marsh Road, approximately 2,000 metres north of the Geelong Ring Road. Plate 5 shows this pole braced on one side.
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It also shows how exposed it is to wind from the northwest to southwest. If this pole was to be be subjected to strong wind in circumstances similar to that experienced by the pole shown in Plates 1 and 2 would it remain upright?
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Food for thought as to where a fire caused by the conductors in contact with the ground would head.
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<center>Plate 5</center>
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<center>Photo: John Nicholson</center></div></span></span>
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Plate 5 shows the brace bolted to the north side of the pole. A recessed nut is just visible on the southern side of the pole. Plate 6 is a view of a recessed nut on the southern side of the pole.
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnq5k-y_FAQVNp4IQ88uJV3i34v2TGjxmZtFvdh9AOteNw5g62N4RBwj5pTDEHU3nmzsRcSvAGxLRVxXXStLcASbTHX_DnRkfUn1KUKM4ICtnPlyxo9O0Q-yB4xYhNevMc-o1hkm2vTWZK/s1600/IMG_4124+160618.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnq5k-y_FAQVNp4IQ88uJV3i34v2TGjxmZtFvdh9AOteNw5g62N4RBwj5pTDEHU3nmzsRcSvAGxLRVxXXStLcASbTHX_DnRkfUn1KUKM4ICtnPlyxo9O0Q-yB4xYhNevMc-o1hkm2vTWZK/s400/IMG_4124+160618.jpg" width="300" height="400" data-original-width="738" data-original-height="984" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 6</center>
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<span class="CharacterStyle1"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 8.0pt;">
<center>Photo: John Nicholson</center></div></span></span>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuSwW2KXgKlBCbCKLJmxYJlF5enyP6Of8iJGT_fGXCK4ogA7bemKGgkIyb_F9NIdcIDoRjsCyJpDA7LQA6Vo7M4iI4ghhHMuNtIUpyIysbdgZ3_I8cyKBCWObS8IHFlsXUQopO5fffJukh/s1600/IMG_1261+170618.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuSwW2KXgKlBCbCKLJmxYJlF5enyP6Of8iJGT_fGXCK4ogA7bemKGgkIyb_F9NIdcIDoRjsCyJpDA7LQA6Vo7M4iI4ghhHMuNtIUpyIysbdgZ3_I8cyKBCWObS8IHFlsXUQopO5fffJukh/s400/IMG_1261+170618.jpg" width="267" height="400" data-original-width="252" data-original-height="378" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 7</center>
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<span class="CharacterStyle1"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 8.0pt;">
<center>Photo: John Nicholson</center></div></span></span>
<P>
Very 'tired' poles are sometimes braced on both sides as shown in Plate 7, obviously needed to provide restraint superior to a nut on the end of a bolt. Is that what happened with the pole shown in Plates 1 and 2, was it only braced on one side?
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The yellow arrow in Plate 3 indicates the length of brace below ground level. To me the butt or base of the pole seems intact or undamaged, with the barely visible green pole at the right hand right side of Plate 2 suggesting that the pole did not fall but snapped off at some point along the brace, with the old pole base removed by the power company to enable the same hole to be used for the new pole. The remains of the pole shown in Plate 1 tend to support this theory.
<P>
Maybe someone has photos that reveal more of the fallen pole they could send me, with anonymity guaranteed.
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhA2FuwmPWHFyikQ33DEOyZDfXHjBeEYCEHyOxjvwrMvJAYRZ6ePwGpZMNDVPcqdiJTDNoFdBywFMXrBnmo9Iv7LYqL8dlxZwvVDA-YTlR_wZdcV3yHFpInI4NrrLJU5gW-tjb9_KJymOO1/s1600/IMG_4122+160618.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhA2FuwmPWHFyikQ33DEOyZDfXHjBeEYCEHyOxjvwrMvJAYRZ6ePwGpZMNDVPcqdiJTDNoFdBywFMXrBnmo9Iv7LYqL8dlxZwvVDA-YTlR_wZdcV3yHFpInI4NrrLJU5gW-tjb9_KJymOO1/s400/IMG_4122+160618.jpg" width="400" height="300" data-original-width="984" data-original-height="738" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 8</center>
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<span class="CharacterStyle1"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 8.0pt;">
<center>Photo: John Nicholson</center></div></span></span>
<P>
Plate 8 shows the base of the pole shown in Plate 4. What does the condition of the pole at ground level suggest? Remember, it's only braced on one side. The plugs are part of the pole inspection process and in the past were part of pole preservation measures.
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_GPfnjWiw5HtDW4BHTtUAxrjQn5FTcZaO8MuPRQ8kxYGICs3r4cZUI9ff1hKvGlIQ961yazKJHOQifh9mC_D3aUXZStmaLFVVl6R2SmH_doV_OQSY8DnZyFaxXpLSHrZRvk81iLWQUBW4/s1600/IMG_1358+160618.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_GPfnjWiw5HtDW4BHTtUAxrjQn5FTcZaO8MuPRQ8kxYGICs3r4cZUI9ff1hKvGlIQ961yazKJHOQifh9mC_D3aUXZStmaLFVVl6R2SmH_doV_OQSY8DnZyFaxXpLSHrZRvk81iLWQUBW4/s400/IMG_1358+160618.jpg" width="394" height="400" data-original-width="984" data-original-height="999" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 9</center>
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<span class="CharacterStyle1"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 8.0pt;">
<center>Photo: John Nicholson</center></div></span></span>
<P>
Plate 9 is here to show a severely compromised pole that I found in a suburban street in Ruthven. It's only braced on the left side.
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMb6YSncTy-CrTXrhSu-9fhSIJ6j1O2NW1X62CJy0uaqJoQDRKCGmipSVhjDsReGCUMf_8hRXP9uDchOviJ2ViNMn33Ko6L7qDpe0EBIa1Z2cvoTjR4FTTBsKTk72SY1eDwnoAZ8tDHDd3/s1600/IMG_4133+160618.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMb6YSncTy-CrTXrhSu-9fhSIJ6j1O2NW1X62CJy0uaqJoQDRKCGmipSVhjDsReGCUMf_8hRXP9uDchOviJ2ViNMn33Ko6L7qDpe0EBIa1Z2cvoTjR4FTTBsKTk72SY1eDwnoAZ8tDHDd3/s400/IMG_4133+160618.jpg" width="400" height="299" data-original-width="394" data-original-height="295" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 10</center>
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<span class="CharacterStyle1"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 8.0pt;">
<center>Photo: John Nicholson</center></div></span></span>
<P>
Plate 10 shows the mark of the pole inspector for 2017 on the colour plate that seems to be standard for that year. I'm really curious to learn if the pole inspector had been to The Sisters pole prior to it coming down.
<P>
<b>Vigilance required of all of us</b>
<P>
I urge everyone to keep an eye on the poles and wires in their area and <b>report any concerns</b> to the CFA office in their part of Victoria to help the Chief Officer meet the section 24(d) CFA Act responsibility or MFB fire station if the concern is within the metropolitan fire district, and do it in writing.
<P>
<b>Now, what of the fate of section 44 CFA Act?</b>
<P>
During my last few years with CFA as Director Risk Management I was responsible for taking section 44 reports to the CFA Board, reports that were taken very seriously and issues that I was expected to know inside out and recommend solutions —challenging, some of those Board meetings. However, at that time CFA had a Board that understood the full extent of its responsibility for both prevention and suppression!
<P>
<a href="http://exposed.net.au/s44notice.pdf">Then, in early 2012 Section 44 was revoked!</a> And, who was it who introduced the Amendment Bill and who was Premier of Victoria at that time? A National Party member who would no doubt have claimed to represent the interests and welfare of country people and a Premier with a largely rural electorate: <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_district_of_South-West_Coast"> South West Coast</a> and veterinarian who surely would have understood the effect of wildfire on farm animals.
<P>
From the <a href=" http://exposed.net.au/repeal_s44_CFA_Act.pdf ">Amendment Bill</a>:
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Clause 34 repeals section 44 of the CFA Act as the requirement for “every officer in charge of a fire control region” to undertake regular inspections within his or her region and report whether the provisions of the CFA Act are being properly and efficiently carried out and administered has been in the CFA Act since 1945 and duplicates other investigative, monitoring and reporting functions undertaken by CFA to the CFA Board and
Government. This is an inefficient use of CFA resources.</div></span></span>
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<center><b>"an inefficient use of CFA resources"!!!</b></center>
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<center><b>"duplicates other investigative, monitoring and reporting functions undertaken by CFA to the CFA Board"</b></center>
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Other investigative, monitoring and reporting functions, what were they? None, if any, that matched the importance of section 44.
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What were these people who were supposed to be acting in our best interests thinking when they repealed section 44?
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How did this happen? Was it driven from within the CFA and if so why? What prompted and supported this irresponsible weakening of Victoria's protection from loss due to wildfire?
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Regardless, it's reasonable to conclude that those who shepherded this repeal through the Parliament ultimately have some culpability for the fires caused by the failure of the electrical distribution network on St Patrick's Day.
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But this is not the end of it, there are others with a statutory fire prevention and reporting function that it appears are not meeting their responsibilities e.g. see my blog posting of Sunday, 21 February 2016 <a href="http://bushfireaustralia.blogspot.com/2016/02/obfuscation-sanitising-cabinet-in.html">"Obfuscation, sanitising, cabinet-in-confidence documents, burying, leaking — examples of some of the processes of government"</a>.
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bushfireaustraliahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11517140957697336597noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5747072893756120712.post-40196929153362449842018-05-15T12:03:00.000+10:002018-05-17T09:00:08.088+10:00Community lifelines and Telstra: outage due to lightning strike, true or false? In emergency management jargon, "lifelines" are services or infrastructure essential to community well-being, such as the supply of electricity, water supplies, main transport corridors and telephonic communications and I would certainly include the emergency call facility Triple Zero (000).
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My blog posting <a href="http://bushfireaustralia.blogspot.com.au/2018/04/wildfires-caused-by-electrical.html">, "Wildfires caused by the electrical distribution system ... why?"</a>, 14 April 2018, was principally about the failure of electric supply in parts of Western Victoria that also caused fires resulting in serious loss in the community, particularly by those people directly impacted and why that was allowed to occur. My analysis of media photographs reveals that three (3) high voltage conductors were involved — see Plate 1 below.
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<center>Plate 1</center>
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<center>Photo <i>ABC News</i> 22 March 2018</center></div></div></span></span></span></span>
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The size of the insulators on a steel cross arm is consistent with a 22,000 volt feeder line serving communities on a broad scale. So many people rely on electricity for many different purposes, and in recent times to maintain telephone services now supplied by the NBN where a supply of electric power to the modem is essential.
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<u>The electricity distribution network is clearly a "lifeline" for the community!</u>
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<b>Telstra and the Triple Zero emergency call facility</b>
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Following the recent partial failure of the Triple Zero (000) emergency call facility and other services, I did some sleuthing to determine for myself if we were being told the full truth about the cause of damage to fibre optic cable between Bowral and Orange, NSW.
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This <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-04/telstra-repairs-triple-zero-network/9726926">video clip from the ABC News</a> story posted below shows fire confined to the roadside, a remarkable aftermath of a lightning strike.
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Quote:
"The telco later tweeted a photo of the cable pit, between Bowral and Orange, which it said had "significant fire damage consistent with lightning strike".
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But Telstra chief executive Andy Penn said he could not guarantee that was the case. According to the Bureau of Meteorology, the closest lightning strike at the time was about 200km west of Orange — <u>200 kilometres west of Orange!</u>
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Then, "All of our evidence suggests it is a lightning strike," Mr Penn said.
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"There is physical damage and fire damage to the particular pit where the actual cable is, but obviously we can't prove that."
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The ABC News story <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-04/telstra-triple-zero-outages-several-states-cable-damaged/9725860">"Government to investigate Telstra triple-0 outage after emergency calls go unanswered"</a>, 4 May 2018, quoting the Telstra CEO.
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The video posted above is very informative ... look closely, preferably on a large desktop screen, for a lightning strike there seems to be little damage to the pit and the cable consistent with the power of a lightning strike such as that which damaged the tree at the start of the <a href="http://bushfireaustralia.blogspot.com.au/2017/03/wye-riverseparation-creek-bushfire.html">Wye River-Separation Creek fire</a> — Plates 2 and 3.
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhb64Gtt8Or6Ujcj3ffgmEIPToW4wEMIz_1sgdq9zZKcfjmfAOZjigrHxKgMIdzQqKyz5H51Go4lCybvQXPMQAx6tRqwxLAqP0KLWLQ6PHNU074QrmxpZcLY4K1pz5hkqQh_Ckg_Gz_DXhe/s1600/IMG_7855_Plate+4.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhb64Gtt8Or6Ujcj3ffgmEIPToW4wEMIz_1sgdq9zZKcfjmfAOZjigrHxKgMIdzQqKyz5H51Go4lCybvQXPMQAx6tRqwxLAqP0KLWLQ6PHNU074QrmxpZcLY4K1pz5hkqQh_Ckg_Gz_DXhe/s400/IMG_7855_Plate+4.jpg" width="300" height="400" data-original-width="1200" data-original-height="1600" /></a></div>
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<center>Plate 2</center>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpkIpzbAXQunnV169Hhx5FPkXvP3ysyeZw6UZPjwRYkhveNMA-FOZRHs7Ir-IRHhSn4lsfERgLOjDj8VinMasu6FWXQLBmFkY36agWlGQaqjlw9K7jNJh4oaGHhRiWuyEwFcs2KOBKFkYX/s1600/IMG_7856_Plate+5.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpkIpzbAXQunnV169Hhx5FPkXvP3ysyeZw6UZPjwRYkhveNMA-FOZRHs7Ir-IRHhSn4lsfERgLOjDj8VinMasu6FWXQLBmFkY36agWlGQaqjlw9K7jNJh4oaGHhRiWuyEwFcs2KOBKFkYX/s400/IMG_7856_Plate+5.jpg" width="300" height="400" data-original-width="1200" data-original-height="1600" /></a></div>
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<center>Plate 3</center></div></div></span></span></span></span>
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And, why would lightning seek out a fibre optic cable that from my research, and I stand to be corrected, has no metal in the cable, yet ignore the metal post indicators except for signs that they had been scorched by the burning grass around them?
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<center>Plate 4</center>
<center> Twitter: Telstra News</center></div></span></span>
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Or was it a case of the pit cover not being in place and a plastic cable joint cover was exposed to fire in the grass, and was heated to the point when it melted/burned exposing a cable joint?
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To me, it seems innocuous roadside fuel reduction where the burning had confined to the road reserve, but concealed within the long grass was there an exposed cable joint? Begs the question, did the length of the burn cross other pits where the cable remained unscathed?
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Surely this raises the question, how many other Telstra cable pits or related infrastructure are vulnerable to fire or other damaging influence? Here’s one:
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimx3qzvk6v2a3-A8pw-VYjtoRiaWgVUhKJHVCQNWnBeqBg2ReN_GiE4FdJW4t_I-T5PHN644kSO1A2DlBUMiy33YrdTZKLQwybKKxCBQ0jDywq22K8MiNA6bUJ0Vx6OLJGhUuYjQ1VFcUv/s1600/IMG_1304+160518+blog.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimx3qzvk6v2a3-A8pw-VYjtoRiaWgVUhKJHVCQNWnBeqBg2ReN_GiE4FdJW4t_I-T5PHN644kSO1A2DlBUMiy33YrdTZKLQwybKKxCBQ0jDywq22K8MiNA6bUJ0Vx6OLJGhUuYjQ1VFcUv/s320/IMG_1304+160518+blog.jpg" width="253" height="320" data-original-width="935" data-original-height="1181" /></a></div>
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<center>Plate 5</center>
<center>Broken Telstra pillar exposing soft cable</center></div></span></span>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfaCiIfcaI7Ix_cwpK0DJsntSCNAP1_zZw1oHCrrFlnJ2vTWeZUhOZtr_PinhHWnseyapnQF8UbBFkfwnnoi9EOT0MVcgsulgVHMpeaoTaaq-k45xozPk1FMMldaKsDBpp8dlnnWZ5MMn7/s1600/IMG_1305+160518+blog.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfaCiIfcaI7Ix_cwpK0DJsntSCNAP1_zZw1oHCrrFlnJ2vTWeZUhOZtr_PinhHWnseyapnQF8UbBFkfwnnoi9EOT0MVcgsulgVHMpeaoTaaq-k45xozPk1FMMldaKsDBpp8dlnnWZ5MMn7/s320/IMG_1305+160518+blog.jpg" width="256" height="320" data-original-width="1182" data-original-height="1476" /></a></div>
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<center>Plate 6</center>
<center>Viewing this on a large screen will reveal the cable already<br> damaged where it rests against the broken metal edge</center></div></span></span>
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<center>Plate 7</center>
<center>Unprotected conduit leading into the nearby cable pit</center></div></span></span>
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Plates 5, 6 and 7 were taken early in May this year in Sunbury Township with the situation clearly visible at the side of a main road and has been this way for months. If it is redundant then it should have been removed, but given it's one — Plate 8 — on a line further along that side of the road serving a large residential area I suspect it is still in service.
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<span class="CharacterStyle1"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 9.0pt;">
<center>Plate 8</center></div></span></span>
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Particularly for Victorians, we should be aware of the potential vulnerability of "lifelines", with the recent failure of the electrical distribution in Western Victoria a prime example and bring to the attention of those with responsibility for monitoring the state of "lifelines" situations that should be a cause for concern.
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This ought to be a concern for governments at every level, as not only Triple Zero is vulnerable, but possibly some cables feeding cellular telephone towers are vulnerable, too. Then there are fire alarms and people relying on personal medical alert systems.
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<b><i>Emergency Management Act 2013</i></b>
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<a href="http://www.legislation.vic.gov.au/domino/Web_Notes/LDMS/LTObject_Store/ltobjst9.nsf/DDE300B846EED9C7CA257616000A3571/230D8A885BB3A56BCA25800200038DDC/$FILE/13-73aa011%20authorised.pdf"> Emergency Management Act 2013 No 73 of 2013 </a> Part 7A - Critical infrastructure resilience Section 74C defines essential services. However, given the increasing reliance on various forms of communications, including the delivery of NBN by cable, the legislated definition needs amending to include "telephony and data transmission".
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For those interested in accountability and resilience in emergency management the whole of <a href="http://www.legislation.vic.gov.au/domino/Web_Notes/LDMS/LTObject_Store/ltobjst9.nsf/DDE300B846EED9C7CA257616000A3571/230D8A885BB3A56BCA25800200038DDC/$FILE/13-73aa011%20authorised.pdf">Parts 7 and 7A Emergency Management Act 2013 </a> is enlightening reading.
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More paid firefighters and water bombing aircraft can only respond to fires and won't prevent pre-response damage to some essential infrastructure, such as the fibre optic cable mentioned above — what is needed is much more emphasis on PREVENTION and community involvement. That's a major step towards modernising a fire service!
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bushfireaustraliahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11517140957697336597noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5747072893756120712.post-61209736223133720072018-04-14T09:27:00.000+10:002018-04-24T08:46:29.137+10:00Wildfires caused by the electrical distribution system ... why?In my blog posting <a href="http://bushfireaustralia.blogspot.com.au/2018/03/western-district-fires-history-repeats.html">“Western District fires — history repeats itself, again”</a>, Monday 19 March 2018, I mentioned the old adage "those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" and that we’d experienced the outbreak of fires in virtually the same locations, at least one due to a failure of the electrical distribution system on Ash Wednesday 1983.
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<span class="CharacterStyle1"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 9.0pt;">
<center>Plate 1</center>
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<center>Photo <i>The Australian</i> 5 April 2018</center></div></div></span></span></span></span>
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<P>
<a href="http://exposed.net.au/cobrico.pdf">By the time we are done milking at night we have to go to Terang and get our carbon monoxide levels tested.</a></div></span></span>
<P>
Plate 2 shows the fires of 17–18 March 2018 in the Western District, Victoria, as shown on the Vic Emergency notification web site as at 1326 hrs on 20 March 2018.
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiramJI_Fbt66oYZKf4zB-sKS7seLxNm_JDca-EkoqBrqZKIl-aybdsg3LsNXxG4bOcgJIVhL3fGyX1VIujcv8HQOEodzx-kKvHDbeWBbq12ST539bFkkIPLRICT7A2cRRoh3VZ68DK3_JK/s1600/emvmap.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="769" data-original-width="1261" height="244" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiramJI_Fbt66oYZKf4zB-sKS7seLxNm_JDca-EkoqBrqZKIl-aybdsg3LsNXxG4bOcgJIVhL3fGyX1VIujcv8HQOEodzx-kKvHDbeWBbq12ST539bFkkIPLRICT7A2cRRoh3VZ68DK3_JK/s400/emvmap.JPG" width="400" /></a></div>
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<center>Plate 2</center></div></span></span>
<P>
Who then is responsible for the loss and inconvenience due to the peat fires near Cobrico and other fires in Western Victoria and might they have been avoided?
<P>
<b>Cost Effective Fire Management</b>
<P>
First, some important history.
<P>
The Country Fire Authority or CFA has its origin in the <a href="http://exposed.net.au/stretton39.pdf">Stretton Report into the 1939 fires</a> with many of Judge Stretton's recommendations forming the basis of the first <a href="http://exposed.net.au/cfaa5040.pdf">Country Fire Authority Act 5040 1944</a>.
<P>
As did Stretton, the government of the day clearly viewed prevention as important as fire suppression or response, as can be seen in the <a href="http://exposed.net.au/cfabill.pdf">Second Reading for the proposed CFA Act 5040</a> to establish the CFA, including the following important inspectorial function:
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<P>
<b>Section 45</b> It shall be the duty of every Regional Officer, subject to the general direction and control of the Authority and the Chief Officer of rural brigades, to inspect regularly all rural districts within his region to ascertain whether the provisions of this Act are being properly and efficiently carried out and administered therein and to report to the Authority thereon at such times as are prescribed or as the Authority directs, and for the purposes of any such inspection any such Regional Officer may enter into and upon any land or premises whatever within any such rural district.</div></span></span>
<P>
As the embryonic CFA began to find its feet and the initial urban and rural arms were amalgamated to create one CFA, the principal Act by then 6228 of 1958, and section 45 now <b>section 44</b>, was amended by <a href="http://exposed.net.au/cfaa1962372.pdf"> Act 6956 December 1962 </a>as follows:
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<P>
<b>12.</b> (1) In section forty-four of the Principal Act—
(a) for the words "all rural districts" there shall be substituted the words "all rural and urban districts "; and
(6) for the words "rural district" there shall be substituted the words "rural or turban district".</div></span></span>
<P>
Section 44 imposed a very significant responsibility on officers in charge of fire control regions as it was the first step in bringing fire prevention ‘concerns’ to the attention of the CFA Board and eventually the government for remedy, as envisaged by Judge Stretton.
<P>
In January and February 1977 several major wildfires occurred in Victoria, the worst being on 12 February and known as:
<P>
    1   Creswick fire<br />
    2   Glenthompson fire ... also known as the Strathmore fire<br />
    3   Merino fire<br />
    4   North Byaduk fire<br />
    5   Penshurst fire<br />
    6   Tatyoon/Streatham fire<br />
    7   The Pura Pura fire<br />
    8   The Beeac fire<br />
    9   The Cressy fire<br />
  10   The Lismore fire<br />
  11   The Waubra fire<br />
  12   The Balliang East/Little River fire
<P>
These fires became the subject of a government appointed board of inquiry into the occurrence of bush and grass fires in Victoria conducted by Sir Edward Hamilton Esler Barber, Q.C., former Judge of the Supreme Court of Victoria.
<P>
<a href="http://exposed.net.au/barber.pdf">From Barber’s report:</a>
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<P>
Of these the twelve fires, nine were caused primarily by a fault or failure of electrical equipment controlled by the SEC.
<P>
Of the nine fires in which electrical fault was the primary cause, five of them also involve the responsibility of other individuals or organisations — that is to say, the Glenthompson, Tatyoon/Streatham, Lismore, Waubra and Pura Pura fires. In regard to the fires at Merino, Beeac, Cressy and Balliang East, it is difficult to see that there is any responsibility other than that of of the SEC.”</div></span></span>
<P>
The causes could generally be categorised as conductors or cables in contact with trees, fallen conductors and drop out hot fuse ends igniting dry vegetation on the ground.
<P>
Of the section 44 CFA Act inspection and reporting responsibilities of CFA Regional Officers, Barber had this to say:
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<P>
It is clear that the regional officers in a number of regions which the Board investigated, failed to make a regular inspection as required by section 44 of the Act. And further that “this inspection has not been carried out on any systematic basis.
<P>
As the officers moved about on their normal duties, they automatically observed fire hazards which happened to become visible to them and no doubt, from time to time, inspected particular hazards brought to their attention by brigade captains or private individuals.
<P>
This however, was the limit of inspection. Not even the roads in the region were systematically inspected and this led to the existence of hazards which were dangerous as possible ignition points and made the roads useless as firebreaks.
<P>
The evidence of all the officers concerned was that this failure to carry out regular inspections on a systematic basis was due to lack of available time because of the pressure of other duties. For example, the regional officer of region 16 deposed that his residence was at the regional office, that he was available by telephone 24 hours a day and that he normally worked a 72 hour working week, for which no overtime is paid. There is no reason to doubt that this is correct or to feel that it is atypical of the usual situation in other regions.
<P>
Another officer in evidence said that to carry out the correct inspection required by the Act was "physically impossible".
<P>
<b>Accepting this, it nevertheless remains that such an inspection, specifically required by section 44, is essential so that fire hazards may be detected and dealt with.</b> [my emphasis]
<P>
<P>
There can be no doubt that the failure must have been known to the CFA command and to permit this state of affairs to continue constitutes a serious error.
<P>
<b>The answer that lack of finance precludes additional staff and that there are insufficient trained personnel available may be an excuse for the past, but must be the subject of energetic reform for the future.</b></div></span></span>
<P>
During the course of the Inquiry some “reform” commenced with the Commission (SEC), with the cooperation of the CFA, would welcome
advice from local representatives of the CFA concerning any situation where SEC installations were a potential source of ignition of fires.
<P>
All CFA Assistant Chief Officers and Regional Officers were informed by letter of these new cooperative arrangements by the CFA Chief Officer Arthur Pitfield and that Regional Officers were to advise the volunteers to contact the local SEC district office or if there is difficulty, to advise the Regional Officer.
<P>
Barber commented further:
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So far so good. Unfortunately, the evidence is quite clear that this letter was never followed up by the Chief Officer to ensure that the instructions contained in it were being carried out. In
fact, they were not.
<P>
There is very little evidence, if any, to suggest that since 1969 to the present time, CFA officers made the necessary observations of SEC lines or, if they did, communicated with the local offices of the SEC seeking to have hazards removed.
<P>
<b>Having regard to the fact that the SEC and the CFA were rightly subjected to criticism after the 1969 fires and that both organisations were well aware from that time of the danger, this omission is inexplicable and is something for which, in the first place, the CFA is to be censured.</b> [my emphasis]</div></span></span>
<P>
Considering the action taken following the release of Barber's report and recommendations, clearly CFA felt chastened by his censure of its poor fire prevention performance.
<P>
Enough for now with more to follow including the eventual fate of section 44, but bells already ringing for anyone yet?
<P>
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bushfireaustraliahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11517140957697336597noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5747072893756120712.post-30822584111452878012018-03-21T12:06:00.000+11:002018-03-22T11:02:19.188+11:00The demise of good management of public land in Victoria — a glimpse of the goings-on in the back offices of governmentRight now there is a fire known as the Tamboritha–Dingo Hill Track fire burning east of the Caledonia River in the Alpine National Park and has been burning since at least 28 February 2018. The southern end of the fire area is approximately 17 kilometres north of north-east of Licola.
<P>
I first became aware of the fire early on 28 February 2018 and posted the following at 1045 hrs on my Facebook account, "Caledonia area - a fire to watch in weather conditions such as today in remote and rugged mountain country when wind may limit/prevent water/retardant bombing by aircraft when most required." Later that day wind and slope affected the fire and it "took off".
<P>
Burning in very rugged and largely inaccessible terrain—in my youth did some bushwalking in this country and as recent as 19–20 January was relatively nearby in a 4 wheel drive—with very high fuel loads, making suppression very difficult. High fuel loads due to regrowth from severe fires in this area in the last 10 years.
<P>
The following were taken from the Emergency Victoria notifications web site at 0847 hrs on 20 March 2018. The fire was then in excess of 7,000 hectares.
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIm6rOioQbhOJ8HXCFXZT5X7IL3LayB9sEhDGYn2h5sn6rg0s8ya26ki7ty-2Dez8VSdRbHSiuWHqwzvYG4_A4V6uqz9JRDILHr8J-dyGKPRleHJvM1MgE0nqxKvxJ25Mw3afPYeBC7Dvl/s1600/Tamboritha+map+0847+200318.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIm6rOioQbhOJ8HXCFXZT5X7IL3LayB9sEhDGYn2h5sn6rg0s8ya26ki7ty-2Dez8VSdRbHSiuWHqwzvYG4_A4V6uqz9JRDILHr8J-dyGKPRleHJvM1MgE0nqxKvxJ25Mw3afPYeBC7Dvl/s400/Tamboritha+map+0847+200318.JPG" width="400" height="218" data-original-width="1600" data-original-height="871" /></a></div>
<P>
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<P>
Why the high fuel loads? Difficulties encountered by forest managers gaining approvals to undertake fuel reduction burning?
<P>
Here, I'm reminded of Premier Andrews, following the late 2015 Lancefield fire abandoning the recommendation of the 2009 Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission:
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<P>
The State fund and commit to implementing a long-term program of prescribed burning based on an annual rolling target of 5 percent minimum of public land.</div></span></span>
<P>
What replaced that target? I remember government utterances that a risk-based approach would determine future fuel reduction on public land. I'll come back to this, but for the remainder of this posting I'll relate a personal experience that I consider relevant.
<P>
I was recently engaged by a community group to vet a <a href="http://exposed.net.au/hfcudfinaljan2018.pdf"> government proposal that directly affected people</a> who are very concerned that it will <a href="http://exposed.net.au/hfcasestudy.pdf">increase the fire danger to their community</a>.
<P>
On commencing I discovered an attitude within Parks Victoria/Department of Environment Land Water and Planning (DELWP) suggesting to me that the 'green' influence is strong in the 'backroom' with little or no regard for the broader community when it comes to community safety.
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRL1R_h3jPBeAZxxAf1Xxz-dA3uM_shxvEoapCGMEInWCOQ6F9DlOnFMAfSMrgY7JrWfqDvMqv66z_5fOJMhFzb9fFsSc_REGcgL623FghB0yJ0bOx8XVJ6VHsMbxOVHCfEV9Xy8o-Zbam/s1600/Cover+100318.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRL1R_h3jPBeAZxxAf1Xxz-dA3uM_shxvEoapCGMEInWCOQ6F9DlOnFMAfSMrgY7JrWfqDvMqv66z_5fOJMhFzb9fFsSc_REGcgL623FghB0yJ0bOx8XVJ6VHsMbxOVHCfEV9Xy8o-Zbam/s320/Cover+100318.jpg" width="226" height="320" data-original-width="1132" data-original-height="1600" /></a></div>
<P>
<a href="http://exposed.net.au/reddvbra100318.pdf">This is the report on the work I did for Yarra Waterways Group</a> and the Executive Summary follows:
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<P>
<center><b>EXECUTIVE SUMMARY</b></center>
<P>
This executive summary is largely a critique of papers put forward by the government in support of a proposal to afforest Haining Farm adjacent to the Don Valley residential estate, ostensibly founded on an assertion that the bushfire threat will not be increased, and consideration of related matters sourced by me.
<P>
The assertion that the bushfire threat will not increase seems to be based on the results of the application of a bushfire behaviour model that predicts probability of house loss: PHOENIX RapidFire. Unfortunately, vegetation or bushfire fuel loads that is species and concentrations were not available from Parks Victoria/DELWP, the principal proponents of the afforestation of Haining Farm, when this report was finalised. And, I understand from Yarra Waterways Group, the project owner, it was not for want of requesting this information.
<P>
A questionable feature of the bushfire risk assessment is the uniform percentage housing loss across a relatively large study area, questionable because it seems not to take account of what could only be an increase in bushfire fuel load given a Greening Australia statement that “over 315,000 trees and shrubs will be planted next year [2018], along with 100 different types of understory plants …” [<a href="http://exposed.net.au/hfgaplantings.pdf">Greening Australia says 59 hectares</a>]
<P>
Given the lack of information available on vegetation species and planting concentrations proposed for the afforestation — and data used in the PHOENIX RapidFire modeling (?) — I consider a statement from one of the independent experts supporting the proposal incredible: “I do not consider the revegetation on Haining Farm to significantly change the bushfire risk in the Yarra Valley around Don Valley”.
<P>
Also questionable is the factoring in of emergency response firefighting resources, including firebombing aircraft, as integral to reducing any bushfire threat associated with the afforestation. Anyone with a real knowledge of bushfire occurrence, suppression difficulty and concentration of such resources according to the risk exposures will know that this is a promise that may not be able to be delivered when most required. Passive protection rather than reliance on emergency response should be the focus of Parks Victoria/DELWP, particularly with the exposed Don Valley residential estate adjoining to the east.
<P>
Minimising the bushfire threat posed to the adjoining residential estate is critical to minimising the potential for loss of homes, and in this case a school, due to the government’s urging the “go early” approach on the community that leaves homes without people available to deal with ember attack to supplement any fire brigade attendance.
<P>
When researching current bushfire protection arrangements for the Don Valley residential estate I was disturbed to find that there was no current Yarra Ranges Municipal Fire Prevention Plan according to section 55A Country Fire Authority Act 1958. I’ve heard of excuses that section 55A has been overridden by the Emergency Management Act or that is to occur. However, section 55A remains in the Country Fire Authority Act and I cannot imagine the Office of the Chief Parliamentary Counsel Victoria allowing any conflict between Acts to remain, and to my knowledge other forms of instruction or advice do not override an Act of parliament.
<P>
From within the papers perused I have extracted the primary objectives for bushfire management on public land, including the statement “human life will be afforded priority over all other considerations”.
<P>
Having experienced the aftermath of several major bushfires, particularly the Trentham East–Macedon fire of Ash Wednesday 1983, Kilmore East and Murrindindi fires of 2009 and the Wye River–Separation Creek fire of 2015, it is reasonable to comment that very many people were hurt emotionally and/or financially through loss of homes, important and valuable possessions, including tools of trade, devastating to those affected — <u>human life must be viewed more widely than just life loss or injury due to being caught in a fire</u>.
<P>
Finally, the protection of the Helmeted Honeyeater and Leadbeater’s Possum should be able to be achieved without increasing the bushfire threat to the Don Valley residential estate and beyond.</div></span></span>
<P>
And, harking back to the 2009 Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission, what's happening with this recommendation:
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<span class="CharacterStyle1"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">
<P>
The Department of Sustainability and Environment [now Parks Victoria/DELWP] report annually on prescribed burning outcomes in a manner that meets public accountability objectives, including publishing details of targets, area burnt, funds expended on the program and impacts on biodiversity. </div></span></span>
<P>
Finally, most concerning should be the failure to involve the residents directly affected in the planning and implementation of the Haining Farm proposal. Unfortunately, an omission not unique in Victoria.
<P>
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bushfireaustraliahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11517140957697336597noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5747072893756120712.post-88305416603140973992018-03-19T16:21:00.001+11:002018-03-20T14:06:01.782+11:00Western District fires — history repeats itself, againThere's an old saying "those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it", George Santayana.
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This posting is a work in progress before I advertise its presence.
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The fires of this last weekend 17–18 March 2018 in the Western District, Victoria, as shown on the Vic Emergency notification web site as at 1326 hrs on 20 March 2018.
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiramJI_Fbt66oYZKf4zB-sKS7seLxNm_JDca-EkoqBrqZKIl-aybdsg3LsNXxG4bOcgJIVhL3fGyX1VIujcv8HQOEodzx-kKvHDbeWBbq12ST539bFkkIPLRICT7A2cRRoh3VZ68DK3_JK/s1600/emvmap.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiramJI_Fbt66oYZKf4zB-sKS7seLxNm_JDca-EkoqBrqZKIl-aybdsg3LsNXxG4bOcgJIVhL3fGyX1VIujcv8HQOEodzx-kKvHDbeWBbq12ST539bFkkIPLRICT7A2cRRoh3VZ68DK3_JK/s400/emvmap.JPG" width="400" height="244" data-original-width="1261" data-original-height="769" /></a></div>
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We've been here before, notably Ash Wednesday 1983.
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What did we learn? A lot from <a href="http://exposed.net.au/1983wdfires.pdf"> CFA's investigation of the major fires</a> including Cudgee–Ballangeich and more about this as I develop this posting. Maybe it's more about what we've forgotten or has not been passed down through the years since.
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Meantime, I'm happy to take any comments that may assist in developing this posting.
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bushfireaustraliahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11517140957697336597noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5747072893756120712.post-47746932512904546202018-01-05T21:36:00.001+11:002018-01-06T06:30:28.339+11:00Bushfire threat - the cost of leaving before the fire. Part 2Referring to my posting last <a href="http://bushfireaustralia.blogspot.com.au/2018/01/bushfire-threat-be-wary-of-warnings.html"> Wednesday, 3 January</a>, as of 4.30 PM this afternoon BOM is holding to its prediction for Saturday:
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<b>Weather Situation</b>
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A high pressure system over the Tasman Sea will move slowly eastwards today as a cold front enters the Bight. The front will move rapidly eastwards on Saturday, reaching the far southwest of the State during the early afternoon, central districts during the evening then weaken over the far northeast during the early hours of Sunday. A high pressure ridge will extend across Victoria during Sunday, while a low pressure trough develops over New South Wales. The trough will extend over northeastern Victoria on Monday while a high pressure system develops over the Bight. The trough will move away to the east on Tuesday as the high moves across Tasmania.
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<b>Forecast</b>
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Very hot and sunny with fresh and gusty north to northwesterly winds. A squally southwesterly cool change developing in the west in the afternoon reaching the central districts during the evening. Isolated showers possible over the southwest following the change. Areas of raised dust possible over the northwest near and following the change.
"Early morning fog in Gippsland. Very hot and sunny with fresh and gusty north to northwesterly winds. A squally southwesterly cool change developing over the southwest during the afternoon, reaching central districts during the evening. Isolated showers possible over the southwest at night. Areas of raised dust possible over central and western districts near and following the change.
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<i>Fire Danger - Extreme in the west grading to Very High in the east.</i>
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<b><a href="http://reg.bom.gov.au/vic/warnings/fire.shtml"> And a fire weather warning has been issued by BOM.</a></b></div></span></span>
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<b>Total Fire Ban</b>
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<b>Acknowledging the BOM prediction a total fire ban is in force for the whole of Victoria for Saturday, 6 January 2018.</b>
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Will history be revisited tomorrow ... 6 January is two days short of the forty-eighth anniversary of the January 1969 fires in Western Victoria, including Lara where <a href="https://www.blacksaturdaymuseum.com/LaraFire.htm"> 17 people lost their lives due to being caught in a bushfire on the Melbourne–Geelong Freeway?</a>
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Since 1969 Victoria has come a long way with the management of bushfire and advice to the public, but as individuals we still need to exercise exceptional situational awareness when it comes to how we will deal with an outbreak of bushfire in our area.
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<b>Whether to leave early or stay to defend our homes and other important assets</b>
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By now those who follow my postings will be aware that I'm strongly opposed to the one-size-fits-all "leave early policy" — <a href="http://bushfireaustralia.blogspot.com.au/2015/01/are-victorians-being-seriously-duped-by.html"> see my 12 January 2015 post</a> — as it leads to the loss of homes and businesses that could be saved if someone was in attendance to deal with ember attack.
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<b>Ember Attack</b>
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<a href="http://bushfireaustralia.blogspot.com.au/2016/04/the-nature-of-bushfire.html"> In my posting of 16 April 2016</a> I explain ember attack and the role of firebrands in spreading bushfire.
Very recent examples of the devastating effect of ember attack were the large number of houses and other buildings lost due to wildfire (bushfire) entering residential development in California, USA.
No doubt in my mind that much of the loss was due to embers starting fires and then those fires spreading from building to building with assistance of wind and garden vegetation.
Here are a selection of video clips from You Tube showing the effect of fire entering what are relatively cleared urban areas well removed from undeveloped land that carried the fire:
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1.  <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mufqnpT5_aI"> Aerial view of homes burned in Fountain Grove</a>
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Note the unburnt vegetation, a reliable indicator that it was embers landing around and on the buildings that led to them igniting then spreading from building to building.</div></span></span>
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2.  <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=505tkPvbeSM"> Aerial view of fire damage in Santa Rosa (Los Angeles Times)</a>
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Again, the absence of damage to the majority of trees indicates that most of the embers and sparks probably came in horizontally under the influence of wind.</div></span></span>
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3.  <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pHqL1rch_IY"> Before and after aerial view of fire damage, Los Angeles</a>
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Ember attack and building to building spread.</div></span></span>
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4.  <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vmnzhDBjOXs"> Aerial view of Sonoma burning (CBS)</a>
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Deserted and burning from house to house.</div></span></span>
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Last one but worth viewing
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5.  <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E98FmrHmbGY"> Aerial view of winery destroyed by fire (CBS)</a>
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Note the unburnt vegetation around these buildings. I suspect the roof burning is due to bituminous or timber shingle roof cladding, possibly attacked by embers.</div></span></span>
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Could it happen here?
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The following two photographs from Google Earth are of northwest then southeast of Eltham and the third the southern side of Lorne Township in Victoria.
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGAVioIklXdSa6DtWqw1OZBhiM86hyFP4mry_-W2OxBlrHU5hy7wHMNQi8Zuy1nPckCv9t370xbJ6B51t5SYZCF4dEsBxV_4NNs0i_geTDQ4prMn_HfsU1ko38kAUEYBJnUvnymLH3fNT_/s1600/Google+Earth+NW+of+Eltham+040118.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGAVioIklXdSa6DtWqw1OZBhiM86hyFP4mry_-W2OxBlrHU5hy7wHMNQi8Zuy1nPckCv9t370xbJ6B51t5SYZCF4dEsBxV_4NNs0i_geTDQ4prMn_HfsU1ko38kAUEYBJnUvnymLH3fNT_/s400/Google+Earth+NW+of+Eltham+040118.jpg" width="400" height="309" data-original-width="1253" data-original-height="967" /></a></div>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicP2HczVYtL229GLrjDa2KVkCORakNdkr1JdgwwOXYdOlrxX-DeZSXSJx989r6u4eG55JgouRHGTj-zgRKtOTWYOyi8Z-n3Qf-f4_4f28mU6BUa3MG5K4CLmglHdNAQNiUZZJshX3HN1Px/s1600/Google+Earth+SW+of+Eltham+040118.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicP2HczVYtL229GLrjDa2KVkCORakNdkr1JdgwwOXYdOlrxX-DeZSXSJx989r6u4eG55JgouRHGTj-zgRKtOTWYOyi8Z-n3Qf-f4_4f28mU6BUa3MG5K4CLmglHdNAQNiUZZJshX3HN1Px/s400/Google+Earth+SW+of+Eltham+040118.jpg" width="400" height="309" data-original-width="1250" data-original-height="965" /></a></div>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwWJT_dI-cZS0BXfQjMu73wM2pWBYeLRep-PP1C2jj3KAlxbSP-yLXPoepQA9jaOSw4c4jSozli04s-J9TfBvNzmJH7F82ERtTvPsQ1SLgndHGn1uC_RC9u1z4tSSPsR787GkbbUYNp9j0/s1600/Google+Earth+south+side+Lorne+040118.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwWJT_dI-cZS0BXfQjMu73wM2pWBYeLRep-PP1C2jj3KAlxbSP-yLXPoepQA9jaOSw4c4jSozli04s-J9TfBvNzmJH7F82ERtTvPsQ1SLgndHGn1uC_RC9u1z4tSSPsR787GkbbUYNp9j0/s400/Google+Earth+south+side+Lorne+040118.jpg" width="400" height="309" data-original-width="1250" data-original-height="965" /></a></div>
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If fire gets into these or similar areas and Daylesford–Hepburn and Macedon-Mount Macedon also come to mind, there's unlikely to be sufficient firefighting vehicles or water bombing aircaft to save all the houses at risk. It happened on Ash Wednesday in the forest west of Woodend–Macedon with firebrands starting fires around Melton and further south. Following a violent southwesterly wind change firebrands and embers were coming off a long fire front and traveling towards the northeast. The rest is unfortunate history.
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If you are thinking about staying to defend your home then you should heed the CFA's advice on <a href="http://www.cfa.vic.gov.au/plan-prepare/before-and-during-a-fire/"> preparing for fire</a> and and particularly <a href="http://www.cfa.vic.gov.au/plan-prepare/stay-and-actively-defend/"> defending the property during a fire.</a>m
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If you do decide to stay, it must certainly be on the understanding that <a href="http://bushfireaustralia.blogspot.com.au/2016/04/the-nature-of-bushfire.html"> direct flame contact</a> will not reach the building you will shelter in — unless of course it’s <u>properly</u> designed and constructed to BAL-FZ according to <i>AS 3959 —2009 Construction of buildings in bushfire-prone areas</i>.
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Then the problem becomes that of that ensuring <a href="http://bushfireaustralia.blogspot.com.au/2016/04/the-nature-of-bushfire-part-2-reality.html">radiant heat from the fire will not be sufficient to destroy windows and ignite flammable timbers</a>, and protecting oneself from high level convective heat or hot air and fighting those damnable embers, and this may take hours if your home is in the bush.
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If you're unaware of what's involved with the passing of a bushfire <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_kAMjSBak7I&index=30&list=FLFiM9-4SID6DsX_Vqizf8mQ&t=2s"> the experience of four people who defended their home at Anglers Rest in 2003 is worth watching</a> and it's probably rare footage. Note how the fire spreads ahead of itself by ember ignition and no actual linear fire front, and the tree canopies don't burn.
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Remember Peter Lang's fight:
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<a href="http://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/How-Safari-West-s-giraffes-cheetahs-and-hippos-12276896.php"> “I use the big ‘we.’ Me and that hose. We are the we.”</a></div></span></span>
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And if your plan is to stay, you will need supplies of food, water and other essentials, as if there is a need to leave after the fire has died down you may not be allowed back for several days depending on the location and extent of the fire.
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<b><i>Country Fire Authority Act 1958 Section 31 Police to assist Chief Officer etc.</b>
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Subsection(4)
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Nothing in this section or section 30 shall authorize the removal from any land building or premises of any person having any pecuniary interest therein or in any goods or valuables whatsoever thereon.</i></div></span></span>
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Then there is the need to be able recharge mobile phones and maybe tablets. A generator may be useful for keeping the fridge and freezer going.
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<b>However any decision to stay and fight is yours, I'm merely trying to provide you with information to help you with the decision. If you have doubts on your level of preparedness and personal strength to take on what can be a very physical and emotionally challenging task, then go early and before you are likely to be caught in a fire.</b>
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Why am I making this posting? I'm doing it because the government and its agencies should be doing more to make us aware of how fire will arrive and how to deal with it, they should be encouraging the development of a firefighting partnership and allocating their — actually ours — resources to work in-conjunction with well prepared residents instead of encouraging everyone to leave the day before days such as that predicted tomorrow. Had this been done in the several days lead-up to the Wye River–Separation Creek fire no doubt the number of homes lost would have been reduced and the horrendous reestablishment red tape and excessive costs being experienced by people simply wanting to rebuild avoided.
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I wonder how many homes across Victoria will be empty tonight?
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What also worries me are those people who leave it to the last minute and are ultimately advised to "shelter-in-place" having previously been informed that they should "leave early". With no information on what to expect how will they respond when the fire comes over the back fence, run and die outside?
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bushfireaustraliahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11517140957697336597noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5747072893756120712.post-12839554909817342222018-01-03T11:37:00.000+11:002018-01-05T22:34:57.272+11:00Bushfire threat — be wary of warnings that can amount to 'crying wolf'. Part 1Victoria has entered the bushfire season and we can now expect warnings from the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), Emergency Management Victoria (EMV) and the fire agencies.
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Every year presents a challenge to BOM, EMV, etc., on how to warn us of bad or "spike" bushfire potential days without overdoing it.
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To help avoid us being turned off by bushfire threat warnings we need to understand the relationship between weather and the quantity and dryness of bushfire fuel.
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Currently, next Saturday, 6 January 2018, is shaping up as a day we should be wary of predicts the BOM:
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"Very hot and sunny day with fresh north to northwesterly winds, gusty at times. Winds tending fresh and squally southwesterly from the west in the afternoon with a cool change, reaching the central districts during the evening."</div></span></span>
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Yesterday, bushfire scientist David Packham provided the following advice concerning the bushfire threat anticipated for next Saturday. I have highlighted in red the parts that convey the message. Remember, ember attack is the main cause of fire spread, clearly obvious from the extent that fire reached into the settled areas of California a short time ago.
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“In a paper discussing bushfire conditions published in Geophysical Research Letters ( American Geophysical Union, 19 Feb 2015), Prof Michael Reeder (Monash Uni), Thomas Spengler (Uni of Bergen) and Ruth Musgrave ( Scripps Inst. Oceanography, Uni of California) showed a connection between extreme bushfire weather and the breaking of the Rosby waves as indicated by extreme cold fronts.
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“There is an average of 1.4 extreme cold fronts per year. Extreme cold fronts are defined as a difference of more than 17 deg C between the max temperature before the cold front and the max temperature on the day after. The most extreme cold front between 1979 and 2010 was 24.3deg C and the most extreme on record (13 Dec 1924(which was 24.9 deg). So much for "earlier than ever" fright speak.
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“Reeder, Spengler and Musgrave summarises as "most of the catastrophic fires in the State of Victoria have been associated with the passage of extreme cold fronts".
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“Saturday next (6 Jan 2018) is one of those days with a forecast temperature difference of 41- 20 =21 degrees. It is a very extreme cold front indeed.
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<span style="color: red;">“My estimate for the Forest Fire Danger Index is 48 for Melbourne Airport which is just in the "Extreme" category (Black Saturday 2009 was about 135).</span> We can expect 1.5 kph rates of spread, non-survival crown fire and spot fire up to 5km ahead of a forest fire in the 25-30 tonne per hectare forest fuels.
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“Because our catastrophic fires are associated with an extreme front does NOT mean that every extreme cold front has a major fire attache, fuel and dryness are as important.
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There is the highest levels of fuel now available for thousands of years now that prescribed burning has just about ceased. What will save us next Saturday is the early season moisture. The Keetch-Byram Index (KBDI) for Melbourne airport (a good surrogate for all Victoria) is only15mm out of a max. of 200mm and not of concern until greater than 100mm. My "average" for Victoria (except the Mallee) is 36mm and with average drying the concerning level of 100mm will not be reached until the middle of March as the bushfire season finishes. So far the KBDI is showing a "normal" seasonal increase.
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<span style="color: red;">“So for next Saturday I can see very hot winds, heaps of fuel and damaging fires but not catastrophic due to residual moisture in the bush.
<P>
<span style="color: red;">“There will be fires and some damage but it is too early and moist in this season for a catastrophe.”</div></span></span></span></span>
<P>
I’ve known David Packham for many years and respect his opinion on bushfire (wildfire) and consequently provide the above as a useful item of intelligence to assist our planning for next Saturday.
<P>
Again, remember that ember attack is the main cause of fire spread. Many homes have been lost because of the "leave early" policy and many lives lost because people left it too late to leave or did not know to shelter until the fire front had passed.
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbwMGBTqkDy-jre2GkyI_93QIMOU-Mg9y2Nbtr5e0sRGNoTqUKzbWLnJCI8HBmYrR0ae3GwrRZOJclD_WRiYin7155t1pNYvkY2YuQnx7NZGi2i8fVrN9tQxAtpgHspxEFQIVYOZy115uq/s1600/vent.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="900" data-original-width="1600" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbwMGBTqkDy-jre2GkyI_93QIMOU-Mg9y2Nbtr5e0sRGNoTqUKzbWLnJCI8HBmYrR0ae3GwrRZOJclD_WRiYin7155t1pNYvkY2YuQnx7NZGi2i8fVrN9tQxAtpgHspxEFQIVYOZy115uq/s400/vent.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<P>
The photo is from an on-line story by KTLA 5 TV News and is of <a href="http://ktla.com/2017/12/05/wind-driven-thomas-fire-explodes-to-31000-acres-structures-destroyed/"> "several homes destroyed in the Thomas Fire are seen on Dec. 5, 2017"</a> and is worth looking at. To me, the question must be, how many of the homes lost would still be there if the residents had stayed to deal with ember attack?
<P>
<b>One person's fight</b>
<P>
Having heard the owner, Peter Lang, interviewed on a recent podcast I went hunting.
<P>
<a href="http://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/How-Safari-West-s-giraffes-cheetahs-and-hippos-12276896.php"> Owner of Safari West, Peter Lang's inspirational story</a> published on-line in SFGate, San Francisco, but unfortunately you'll need to pick your way through the advertisements.
<P>
To me, one of Peter's comments stands out:
<P><div class="Style1" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 14.2pt; margin-right: 19.85pt; margin-top: 8.Opt; mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-line-break-override: restrictions; punctuation-wrap: simple; text-align: justify; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span class="CharacterStyle1"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">
<P>
<span style="color: red;">“We were able to extinguish that,” he said. “I use the big ‘we.’ Me and that hose. We are the we.”</div></span></span></span>
<P>
Finally, remember we are looking at Saturday and the weather can be fickle.
<P>
It will be interesting how the agencies handle advice to the public.
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bushfireaustraliahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11517140957697336597noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5747072893756120712.post-46796927595124483602017-11-22T15:15:00.001+11:002017-11-30T19:12:00.944+11:00Victoria's fire management strategy — meeting the needs of the customer<P>
For the first time I'm aware of, and that goes back as far as 1967, "Victorians have an opportunity to shape the future of fire management in Victoria by providing feedback to the Victorian Fire Management Strategy Discussion Paper.
<P>
"Released this week the paper aims to explore new and innovative ways to prevent fires in Victoria and reduce impacts on the community when fires occur.
<P>
"Emergency Management Commissioner Craig Lapsley said sector and community feedback was the first step in developing a holistic new strategy, which would include all aspects of fire."
<P>
The discussion paper can be reached by clicking on the label Plate 1 immediately below the photograph.
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKAaebhcY1-yEDPVMv9TkYwzU-ki3HtzFQ3UuhAv9HWOgMZAPRzul32WuDDzJ0MoM22Bn2GUwH5hbxgbfQs3_9zqISQNt4ztXV8zqU29ZGVDg5CA7yhdpgoaIh9t0kmNmCG-BCD6tBlnuU/s1600/emvvfms.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKAaebhcY1-yEDPVMv9TkYwzU-ki3HtzFQ3UuhAv9HWOgMZAPRzul32WuDDzJ0MoM22Bn2GUwH5hbxgbfQs3_9zqISQNt4ztXV8zqU29ZGVDg5CA7yhdpgoaIh9t0kmNmCG-BCD6tBlnuU/s320/emvvfms.JPG" width="320" height="213" data-original-width="613" data-original-height="408" /></a></div>
<center><a href="https://www.emv.vic.gov.au/news/managing-fires-in-the-future
"> Plate 1</a></center>
<P>
In the posting heading I've referred to the <b>needs of the customer</b>.
<P>
<b>Who is the customer?</b>
<P>
The <i>Macquarie Dictionary Fifth Edition</i> defines a customer as "someone who purchases goods from another; a buyer; a patron".
<P>
All Victorians are <b>customers</b>, indeed <b>owners</b> of the fire services through the fire service levy and other taxes we pay to establish and maintain these services: MFB, CFA and DELWP Forest Fire Management Victoria.
<P>
<b>Who is a stakeholder?</b>
<P>
Whilst there are many stakeholders: "someone who has a pecuniary interest in an enterprise, having contributed funds to it; someone who is affected by, is concerned with, etc., with an issue or enterprise", the <b>customers</b> must be considered the prime or paramount stakeholders and while the advice or recommendations of the lesser stakeholders should be considered, their sometimes self-serving needs or wants should never override the best interests of the owners of the fire services.
<P>
I imagine that most who read this posting will be aware to some extent of the Victorian government's push to rearrange our fire and emergency services and the supporting nonsense that's been promoted by various parties who should know better, and here I include the Emergency Management Commissioner and CFA Chief Officer.
<P>
<b>The rationale or lack of it.</b>
<P>
Apparently the so-called "modernising" of Victoria's fire services and I'll come back to this later, is founded on an enterprise bargaining agreement (EBA) that affects CFA paid personnel that the CFA Board refused to accept in its entirety. Having failed here, the government decided that it would split the CFA to in effect separate solely volunteer brigades from integrated brigades having a paid firefighter component.
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgN_ovo-YTYyBXtWoMW8pYEtOixc8J3Y7BnTU3sSVUT5ljTwvdigxZ94lFCyP85fky4rfa4X186nByvuWT2isJZhhvKIT74tLLc2ICJBVZsKp3nccbQPs6AWRQQwNwYwvhyphenhyphen0lzFOK1VmWX8/s1600/19399602_1719734181387972_6089849820204945781_n.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgN_ovo-YTYyBXtWoMW8pYEtOixc8J3Y7BnTU3sSVUT5ljTwvdigxZ94lFCyP85fky4rfa4X186nByvuWT2isJZhhvKIT74tLLc2ICJBVZsKp3nccbQPs6AWRQQwNwYwvhyphenhyphen0lzFOK1VmWX8/s400/19399602_1719734181387972_6089849820204945781_n.jpg" width="388" height="400" data-original-width="932" data-original-height="960" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 2</center>
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjz_raRWSIzuVni3-5KkSK60hBdx3IyrLotj3Ly5rNCy37tKNUezvajLe2StgWVxLGWOr-Z5F5RJEXCTwsiVlLVMLOk8a_XPb7tIbfb2EsUOR7r40DrDu4JHzwOmRTBXK2-fEhqd8FVBVi1/s1600/19264387_1719734371387953_8382592321603112904_o.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjz_raRWSIzuVni3-5KkSK60hBdx3IyrLotj3Ly5rNCy37tKNUezvajLe2StgWVxLGWOr-Z5F5RJEXCTwsiVlLVMLOk8a_XPb7tIbfb2EsUOR7r40DrDu4JHzwOmRTBXK2-fEhqd8FVBVi1/s400/19264387_1719734371387953_8382592321603112904_o.jpg" width="400" height="300" data-original-width="1181" data-original-height="886" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 3</center>
<P>
And, it has not stopped there. <a href="http://www.cfa.vic.gov.au/about/emergency-response-times/"> CFA has released emergency response data</a> that does not give any information on periods of a day involved. Unfortunately, this information is being cherry-picked by certain lesser stakeholders supporting the assertion that selected volunteer brigades don't meet the required response time, seemingly to frighten the communities they serve.
<P>
Don't be mislead, there will be integrated brigades out there capable of meeting the response times at night and weekends that don't require 24/7 paid firefighters. CFA management should be identifying on an individual brigade basis where volunteers can meet the response times and rather than having paid firefighters sleeping in fire stations reallocate some to stations that need "daytime staffing", hence avoiding an increase in costs.
<P>
Concerning costs, <a href="http://exposed.net.au/theoz101117.pdf"> <i>The Australian</i></a> recently published information on rising public sector employment costs provided by the <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/6248.0.55.002Main%20Features12016-17?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=6248.0.55.002&issue=2016-17&num=&view="> Australian Bureau of Statistics</a>
<P>
With the emphasis on emergency response, which currently seems to be the main argument about meeting the needs of the <b>customer</b>, the following are recent examples of the weakness or failure of strategies to protect life and property protection due to all the "eggs being in one basket":
<P>
<P><div class="Style1" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 14.2pt; margin-right: 19.85pt; margin-top: 8.Opt; mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-line-break-override: restrictions; punctuation-wrap: simple; text-align: justify; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span class="CharacterStyle1"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">
<P>
<b><a href="http://www.smh.com.au/world/final-death-toll-from-londons-grenfell-tower-fire-is-71-say-police-20171116-gzn2v3.html"> London's Grenfell Tower fire</a></b></div></span></span>
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgW1ihvsvNzefWt98P8nkWK1czLgU4A_4FCmDwro9ZHDMzSx5JiPE2wf-ygA6glv_23M0uFWTgwtGjds_Mgyh9_GT79GEpCsHVOsG8MAFkXJY-HPvl2FuqZKHN6_4DtoDC_Eksuebv-qqDJ/s1600/1510826323539.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgW1ihvsvNzefWt98P8nkWK1czLgU4A_4FCmDwro9ZHDMzSx5JiPE2wf-ygA6glv_23M0uFWTgwtGjds_Mgyh9_GT79GEpCsHVOsG8MAFkXJY-HPvl2FuqZKHN6_4DtoDC_Eksuebv-qqDJ/s400/1510826323539.jpg" width="400" height="225" data-original-width="620" data-original-height="349" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 4</center>
<P><div class="Style1" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 14.2pt; margin-right: 19.85pt; margin-top: 8.Opt; mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-line-break-override: restrictions; punctuation-wrap: simple; text-align: justify; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span class="CharacterStyle1"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">
<P>
<b><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/oct/11/california-fires-wine-country-death-toll-napa-valley"> California wildfires 2017 </a></b></div></span></span>
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGRzmM7yl3sUaLttixYOmXUEkk0VkPkxO6rBODy5_YBiFRuKf9K9Qf8w-gWUf5dC8pQwAoh6zZkSni5g-DVVNxs_yVpkuq5lNmeZ0VW6_HHCl3MGFRXJQ8zeT2Y20s_ywSwQ48wPAnWsjR/s1600/2000.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGRzmM7yl3sUaLttixYOmXUEkk0VkPkxO6rBODy5_YBiFRuKf9K9Qf8w-gWUf5dC8pQwAoh6zZkSni5g-DVVNxs_yVpkuq5lNmeZ0VW6_HHCl3MGFRXJQ8zeT2Y20s_ywSwQ48wPAnWsjR/s400/2000.jpg" width="400" height="240" data-original-width="860" data-original-height="516" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 5</center>
<P><div class="Style1" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 14.2pt; margin-right: 19.85pt; margin-top: 8.Opt; mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-line-break-override: restrictions; punctuation-wrap: simple; text-align: justify; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span class="CharacterStyle1"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">
<P>
<b><a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/docklands-building-burns-hundreds-evacuated-after-fire-breaks-out-20141124-11t2hs.html"> Docklands building burns: Hundreds evacuated after fire breaks out</a></b></div></span></span>
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3fhKbcNNo50G9qbW0mNIW9VdOQjtcLVzOscRuvAAB7IdZH8RVI3irGzzVksbQmJ09445QejQ4EBnQsGqENwQWrpjwhQtY22yuAYEjnwg7Y4baDapeZfn-bN34_2ZRjiNHSMPvccPvAb5G/s1600/1416894612045.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3fhKbcNNo50G9qbW0mNIW9VdOQjtcLVzOscRuvAAB7IdZH8RVI3irGzzVksbQmJ09445QejQ4EBnQsGqENwQWrpjwhQtY22yuAYEjnwg7Y4baDapeZfn-bN34_2ZRjiNHSMPvccPvAb5G/s400/1416894612045.jpg" width="245" height="400" data-original-width="300" data-original-height="489" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 6</center>
<P><div class="Style1" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 14.2pt; margin-right: 19.85pt; margin-top: 8.Opt; mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-line-break-override: restrictions; punctuation-wrap: simple; text-align: justify; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span class="CharacterStyle1"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">
<P>
<b><a href="http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2016/02/15/wye-river-bushfire-maps-see-rapid-fire-devastation"> Wye River–Separation Creek, Christmas 2015</a></b></div></span></span>
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1QCX3fZSAUy9upwoEb_E1xsEoT8kThwWSiG4stAPKCbjkVeQmk0ERDEIjgr-qZ0Gb49TPLpoOPU4lzJLlPABttXo3JuUJkTmV9DQEkl5JxSwaU6xsS9Rw-xt59JJq6tmXTzMOYFUteXIa/s1600/IMG_9153_211216.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="267" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1QCX3fZSAUy9upwoEb_E1xsEoT8kThwWSiG4stAPKCbjkVeQmk0ERDEIjgr-qZ0Gb49TPLpoOPU4lzJLlPABttXo3JuUJkTmV9DQEkl5JxSwaU6xsS9Rw-xt59JJq6tmXTzMOYFUteXIa/s400/IMG_9153_211216.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 7</center>
<P><div class="Style1" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 14.2pt; margin-right: 19.85pt; margin-top: 8.Opt; mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-line-break-override: restrictions; punctuation-wrap: simple; text-align: justify; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span class="CharacterStyle1"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">
<P>
<b><a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-09-02/hazelwood-coal-mine-fire-morwell/5711564"> Hazelwood mine fire</a></b></div></span></span>
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZt6aH6n7a7B7gBn-l3WS3_xRnOCLgrG3xdrBTKEEGxEFnEgtNyCR_tDyk8CMn_glDBbwLvlqDRzFp5WlkYhhtj9ffC-VPzOl0az7k16NY23ZB6SDwAA6Ak2aSSXQ3iBAngbDqlTzVLUkE/s1600/5287912-3x2-700x467.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZt6aH6n7a7B7gBn-l3WS3_xRnOCLgrG3xdrBTKEEGxEFnEgtNyCR_tDyk8CMn_glDBbwLvlqDRzFp5WlkYhhtj9ffC-VPzOl0az7k16NY23ZB6SDwAA6Ak2aSSXQ3iBAngbDqlTzVLUkE/s400/5287912-3x2-700x467.jpg" width="400" height="267" data-original-width="700" data-original-height="467" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 8</center>
<P><div class="Style1" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 14.2pt; margin-right: 19.85pt; margin-top: 8.Opt; mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-line-break-override: restrictions; punctuation-wrap: simple; text-align: justify; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span class="CharacterStyle1"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">
<P>
<b><a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/lancefield-fire-report-finds-significant-shortcomings-in-handling-of-burnoffs-20151118-gl2k8m.html"> Lancefield fire 2015</a></b></div></span></span>
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYM7i6ZVdIBlbKWNtyBxkiZUPc62QjxNHzIZ2aCiLLFng7Uq-MsWIt1zEMVwLI6I6pbdB2omfkpKwwCgksnI4vNj931bNn4nJMEZGDU0e2jVFFuX5yzQ9hBo8BuHt0kuOTAUCkQ6GsoxE1/s1600/Gogle+Street+View.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="250" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYM7i6ZVdIBlbKWNtyBxkiZUPc62QjxNHzIZ2aCiLLFng7Uq-MsWIt1zEMVwLI6I6pbdB2omfkpKwwCgksnI4vNj931bNn4nJMEZGDU0e2jVFFuX5yzQ9hBo8BuHt0kuOTAUCkQ6GsoxE1/s400/Gogle+Street+View.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 9</center>
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjG9gXipLUcNpfimbThKuEH79HG1-wH0YKOv0MPkUOmE-VAoYRd7L35sW8dwjHGAhiglj9oxCarVk3pdhu_mOZDrDwT74oMj8Ed3fBvtlMLs9XFSZlvwI84vOPc1HYR40H96duyg0DeXQD7/s1600/IMG_4297_03.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjG9gXipLUcNpfimbThKuEH79HG1-wH0YKOv0MPkUOmE-VAoYRd7L35sW8dwjHGAhiglj9oxCarVk3pdhu_mOZDrDwT74oMj8Ed3fBvtlMLs9XFSZlvwI84vOPc1HYR40H96duyg0DeXQD7/s400/IMG_4297_03.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 10</center>
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyaBB0MBwPYtkyleyU27kkeDp3IkhuB8L7KSlCUgqRccO6gxXb3Zos18ZXB1KNx2TXjmgLOfrja8CcjeNBeejZOKsE5ZISSH8nFVw3mE4B3zOCv9cVwI96NyMsLiYONJOp6Vu6crMN6V6H/s1600/IMG_4291_01.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyaBB0MBwPYtkyleyU27kkeDp3IkhuB8L7KSlCUgqRccO6gxXb3Zos18ZXB1KNx2TXjmgLOfrja8CcjeNBeejZOKsE5ZISSH8nFVw3mE4B3zOCv9cVwI96NyMsLiYONJOp6Vu6crMN6V6H/s400/IMG_4291_01.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 11</center>
<P>
<b>In drawing attention to the above that I consider failures due to the loss of life involved, enormous loss of property and cost of recovery in all its forms, I'm certainly not being critical of firefighters involved, many of whom will have placed themselves in dangerous situations and deserve our thanks. The failure is at the executive management and political level in shirking vital prevention and preparedness measures to reduce the reliance on firefighter intervention.</b>
<P>
<b>Prevention</b>
<P>
How do we avoid or reduce the impact of situations such as the above examples? Clearly by increasing the effort in the areas of prevention and community preparedness — and Lancefield is a prime example of an unprepared community with houses vulnerable to ember attack. And prevention must include better building construction regulation and emergency management planning for buildings, including emergency management wardens to organise the orderly evacuation of occupants.
<P>
This prevention and preparedness must extend into the family home to reduce reliance on emergency response — the fire brigade may be delayed for one reason or another or not even arrive. Smoke alarms in the family home are intended to alert the occupants so that they can safely leave the building.
<P>
There is more a fire service can be doing to protect life and property than just building up its response capability; that’s yesterday’s thinking.
<P>
<b>Fire Service Modernisation</b>
<P>
The Victorian government claims to want to modernise the Country Fire Authority, but it was a very modern <b>Authority</b> and well in advance of its time when it came into being in 1945:
<P>
<P><div class="Style1" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 14.2pt; margin-right: 19.85pt; margin-top: 8.Opt; mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-line-break-override: restrictions; punctuation-wrap: simple; text-align: justify; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span class="CharacterStyle1"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">
<P>
<a href="http://www.legislation.vic.gov.au/domino/Web_Notes/LDMS/LTObject_Store/ltobjst9.nsf/DDE300B846EED9C7CA257616000A3571/FEBDB20D6F321A04CA257EC900179357/$FILE/58-6228aa151%20authorised.pdf"><b>COUNTRY FIRE AUTHORITY ACT</b></a></div></span></span>
<P>
<P><div class="Style1" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 26pt; margin-right: 19.85pt; margin-top: 8.Opt; mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-line-break-override: restrictions; punctuation-wrap: simple; text-align: justify; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span class="CharacterStyle1"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">
<b>Section 6 Appointment of Country Fire Authority</b>
<P>
(1) For the more effective control of the prevention and suppression of fires in the country area of Victoria there shall be an Authority appointed by the Governor in Council to be called the "Country Fire Authority".
<P>
(2) By such name such Authority shall be a body corporate with perpetual succession and a common seal and shall be capable in law of suing and of being sued and of taking purchasing holding exchanging leasing and disposing of real and personal property.</div></span></span>
<P>
That’s right, as it states in the current CFA Act an <b>Authority</b> not a fire service or fire brigade!
<P>
<P><div class="Style1" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 26pt; margin-right: 19.85pt; margin-top: 8.Opt; mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-line-break-override: restrictions; punctuation-wrap: simple; text-align: justify; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span class="CharacterStyle1"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">
<P>
<b>Section 6F Recognition of Authority as a volunteer-based organisation</b>
<P>
The Parliament recognises that the Authority is first and foremost a volunteer-based organisation, in which volunteer officers and members are supported by employees in a fully integrated manner..</div></span></span>
<P>
That was the original intention, an <B>Authority</B> that is “first and foremost a volunteer-based organisation” that still stands in the current Country Fire Authority Act — not a fire brigade or fire service as is the Metropolitan Fire and Emergency Services Brigade (MFB).
<P>
<P><div class="Style1" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 26pt; margin-right: 19.85pt; margin-top: 8.Opt; mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-line-break-override: restrictions; punctuation-wrap: simple; text-align: justify; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span class="CharacterStyle1"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">
<P>
<b>Section 14 Control of the prevention and suppression of fires in the country area</b>
<P>
The control of the prevention and suppression of fires in the country area of Victoria is, subject to this Act, vested in the Authority.</div></span></span>
<P>
In recent times CFA management seems to have more concentrated more on being a fire brigade than addressing its full role as an Authority and neglecting its fire prevention responsibilities:
<P>
<P><div class="Style1" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 14.2pt; margin-right: 19.85pt; margin-top: 8.Opt; mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-line-break-override: restrictions; punctuation-wrap: simple; text-align: justify; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span class="CharacterStyle1"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">
<P>
<a href="http://bushfireaustralia.blogspot.com.au/2016/02/obfuscation-sanitising-cabinet-in.html"> <i>Prior to the current bushfire season did the Municipal Fire Prevention Officer or the CFA Chief Officer — in fairness to the current CO who has only been in that position for a relatively short time, I’m referring to his predecessor — address the vegetation hazard utilising section 41 Country Fire Authority Act 1958?
<P>
Did the IGEM inquire if Emergency Management Victoria had any concerns about township protection in the context of a total PPRR (prevention, preparedness, response and recovery) approach to the protection of life and property at Wye River–Separation Creek?</i></a></div></span></span>
<P>
Over time governments have helped with the downgrading of the CFA for example the revocation of CFA’s section 44 inspection responsibility. How this was handled is a shameful story for another day.
<P>
<a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-20/why-do-people-light-bushfires-a-convicted-arsonist-explains/9162190"> And back to the subject of so-called modernising the CFA and community involvement generally, with the apparently growing threat to the community through terrorism or other Malicious acts that can constitute a broad-scale threat beyond the capability of our emergency responders, both paid and volunteer, it’s not in the best interests of the <b>customer</b> for the government to allow/participate in denigration of volunteers as a lesser class of firefighter and have them marginalised.</a>
<P>
On volunteers being labelled by some as "unprofessional" that's tripe, as CFA volunteers are required to be trained, assessed and qualified for whatever roles they perform. Consequently, was it appropriate for a government that should be working in Victoria's best interests to allow denigration of volunteers to be publicly canvassed in the Melbourne CBD? As a volunteer myself, I found it extremely offensive and needing a response.
<P>
<b>Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning</b>
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi917XJ1cHZKJcEsnulxVzvq0u8yB8qBAAHVXLVxUqkIe5wZpnL7nc2-Scq7bCjeA7vj3KeKzM8g50WxNgXBVyb-lu5aiOkXzuOE4W2hTs4BWJbzdjE1CcKn2vNtGJNrSQy2uyDg1HOD1mm/s1600/nillumbikmayor.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi917XJ1cHZKJcEsnulxVzvq0u8yB8qBAAHVXLVxUqkIe5wZpnL7nc2-Scq7bCjeA7vj3KeKzM8g50WxNgXBVyb-lu5aiOkXzuOE4W2hTs4BWJbzdjE1CcKn2vNtGJNrSQy2uyDg1HOD1mm/s400/nillumbikmayor.jpg" width="367" height="400" data-original-width="880" data-original-height="960" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 12</center>
<P>
DELWP, another government agency failing its <b>customers</b>:
<P>
<P><div class="Style1" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 14.2pt; margin-right: 19.85pt; margin-top: 8.Opt; mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-line-break-override: restrictions; punctuation-wrap: simple; text-align: justify; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span class="CharacterStyle1"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">
<P>
<a href="http://bushfireaustralia.blogspot.com.au/2017/09/improving-bushfire-management-missed.html"><i>DELWP's Code of practice for bushfire management on public land places a high priority on asset protection, obviously being neglected at Cassidy Drive. And what does the Colac Otway Municipal Fire Prevention Plan say about this part of Kennett River or is the shire ignoring the loss potential and willing to abandon the people involved to the same fate as Wye River–Separation Creek?</i></a></div></span></span>
<P>
Referring to Minister Merlino's statement in the final paragraph of Mayor Clarke in the <i>Diamond Valley Leader</i> story concerning preparedness for the coming fire season, a record $29.4 million in Victoria's biggest ever firefighting aircraft fleet", is Minister Merlino unaware that the very day when aircraft are most required weather conditions usually prevent or at least severely restrict their use e.g. they were of little or no help in preventing the losses at Wye River–Separation Creek on Christmas Day 2015. Makes me wonder, is Minister Merlino seeking to "snow" us, or has he been mislead by his advisors?
<P>
Finally, for the benefit of Minister Melino and those who feel that to be a professional requires being paid to do the job, here’s a fire and rescue department worth spending some time looking into <a href="http://www.fcvfra.org/about/organization/fcfrd/"> Fairfax Country Fire and Rescue Department</a>, Virginia, adjoining Washington DC.
<P>
<b><font color="#6504FA">HERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR EVERYONE TO HAVE INPUT TO FUTURE FIRE MANAGEMENT ARRANGEMENTS FOR VICTORIA AND I URGE EVERYONE AS THE TRUE CUSTOMERS TO HAVE THEIR SAY, BUT TIME IS SHORT.</font></b>
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bushfireaustraliahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11517140957697336597noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5747072893756120712.post-84068487646878638912017-09-25T13:06:00.000+10:002019-01-19T17:34:50.111+11:00Improving bushfire management — a missed opportunity Part 1Approximately 21 months after the fire Victorian Coroner Judge Sara Hinchey has ruled not to hold an <a href="http://exposed.net.au/coronerwyesep.pdf"> inquest into the Wye River–Separation Creek Christmas 2015 bushfire</a>.
<P>
Disturbing reading, as Coroner Hinchey seems to accept the reports, etc, from DELWP, Inspector General for Emergency Management (IGEM) and Emergency Management Commissioner as suitable and sufficient evidence on which to determine that an Inquest into the fire was not required.
<P>
For a fire that caused, and continues to cause enormous personal financial and emotional hardship to those who lost homes, and cost to the broader community to ostensibly make Wye River–Separation Creek safe in the aftermath of the fire, including works to prevent landslip closing the Great Ocean Road, reading much of the Decision I'm reminded of the adage "caesar judging caesar". In this case the Coroner appears to endorse "caesar's" conclusions.
<P>
One example:
<P>
In the introduction on page 1 Her Honour draws on the IGEM's description of the land involved. Did she test this herself?
<P>
Paragraph 41 on page 8:
<P>
<P><div class="Style1" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 14.2pt; margin-right: 19.85pt; margin-top: 8.Opt; mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-line-break-override: restrictions; punctuation-wrap: simple; text-align: justify; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span class="CharacterStyle1"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">
<P>
... for the purpose of investigating the fire and determining whether to hold an Inquest, I have received additional materials from Emergency Management Victoria (EMV) and DELWP. I also toured by vehicle, on foot and in the air, the area in which the fire ignited and subsequently burned.</div></span></span>
<P>
Did Her Honour actually walk in the area where the fire started on 19 December 2015 identified in my blog postings of 20 March <a href="http://bushfireaustralia.blogspot.com.au/2017/03/wye-riverseparation-creek-bushfire-in.html"> "Wye River–Separation Creek bushfire — in pursuit of the truth"</a>
and 28 March 2017 <a href="http://bushfireaustralia.blogspot.com.au/2017/03/wye-riverseparation-creek-bushfire.html"> "Wye River–Separation Creek bushfire — lightning strike and what to look for"</a>? I had no difficulty reaching and walking around in that area.
<P>
<a href="http://bushfireaustralia.blogspot.com.au/2017/04/jamieson-creek-bushfire-marketing-myth.html"> Maybe Her Honour was never taken to the area of the lightning strike</a>.
<P>
I'll leave it to the reader to find other examples.
<P>
Surely the people directly involved and all Victorians for that matter deserve better, if for no other reason than to avoid a similar situation at some future time. The vulnerability of Kennett River just down the road from Wye River comes to mind.
<P>
The following three photos from my blog posting of 21 February 2016 <a href="http://bushfireaustralia.blogspot.com.au/2016/02/obfuscation-sanitising-cabinet-in.html"> "Obfuscation, sanitising, cabinet-in-confidence documents, burying, leaking — examples of some of the processes of government"</a> are before and after the Christmas Day fire. The dwelling 'was' on the north-eastern side of Dunoon Road, Wye River. Plate 2 shows the vegetation on private land below this and other dwellings lost in that area.
<P>
In that posting I mentioned the 'tools' available to at least reduce the threat to exposed buildings along Dunoon Road. Add to those 'tools' the provisions of sections 225, 226, 227 and 227A <a href="http://www.legislation.vic.gov.au/domino/Web_Notes/LDMS/LTObject_Store/ltobjst10.nsf/DDE300B846EED9C7CA257616000A3571/C72691DD34E72842CA25818C00192304/$FILE/89-11aa144%20authorised.pdf"> Local Government Act 1989</a>. Disturbingly fascinating how this has been ignored in the re-establishment of Wye River–Separation Creek at great and unnecessary cost to those seeking to rebuild that could be avoided if council, the CFA Board and Chief Officer effectively addressed their fire prevention responsibilities.
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiWhq5I9qdBf2Yf5727c4_yjkF98TnAMX5rtTmL8UqywkaU6oBQznJoea_k_P0TxjE3qcX0zgFV_sQ7ATNMX6fn67D4vFq8vcu5oJQH2zmVgc4K_EMb6TOCGCMwCvMcnZOvEDAeRXp5Q1j/s1600/IMG_7950+210216.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiWhq5I9qdBf2Yf5727c4_yjkF98TnAMX5rtTmL8UqywkaU6oBQznJoea_k_P0TxjE3qcX0zgFV_sQ7ATNMX6fn67D4vFq8vcu5oJQH2zmVgc4K_EMb6TOCGCMwCvMcnZOvEDAeRXp5Q1j/s400/IMG_7950+210216.jpg" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 1</center>
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihbix8i_eJbdtKJSGs6mtKZjRdksmM0t7DD2V2_MX35HHP7_FivaFvHxx765sQe7bd5lCovg0uFnvjZzHZr6zFPSIjtQvdENWTKaEUBmrnqBYNYRBC8vxun2tTxN5Rg44lgdp92Cd_gFdq/s1600/IMG_7941+210216.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihbix8i_eJbdtKJSGs6mtKZjRdksmM0t7DD2V2_MX35HHP7_FivaFvHxx765sQe7bd5lCovg0uFnvjZzHZr6zFPSIjtQvdENWTKaEUBmrnqBYNYRBC8vxun2tTxN5Rg44lgdp92Cd_gFdq/s400/IMG_7941+210216.jpg" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 2</center>
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgaXi_vOOrsSVX-eYvc5QmPuNzjAm-uRpWFmwMkjCg8G134tto2WJd3t3CvTPUcXXAKC4zwMs9lYQsf9gCjdQkhh9NHDID8_3llv43t_qWja08IkUEf7ndRUhZxtLOoR-6gxV1rm60V4qtZ/s1600/8+Dunoon+210216.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgaXi_vOOrsSVX-eYvc5QmPuNzjAm-uRpWFmwMkjCg8G134tto2WJd3t3CvTPUcXXAKC4zwMs9lYQsf9gCjdQkhh9NHDID8_3llv43t_qWja08IkUEf7ndRUhZxtLOoR-6gxV1rm60V4qtZ/s400/8+Dunoon+210216.jpg" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 3</center>
<P>
Now, 'kicking the bushfire management or should I say bushfire mismanagement can' a bit further down the road to Kennett River. The first four photographs are of dwellings on the southern side of Cassidy Drive.
<P>
Nothing remarkable about these and other dwellings along Cassidy Drive and they are as vulnerable to bushfire attack as were those lost along Dunoon Road and elsewhere in Wye River–Separation Creek. However, there is one significant difference in the environments — the land on the other or northern side of Cassidy Drive is zoned PUBLIC CONSERVATION AND RESOURCE ZONE (PCRZ) in the Colac Otway Planning Scheme, thus the <b>responsibility of DELWP</b>.
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhm65YThnUKZ03QLi9IwssT1q5JTvsspcALG1-Daq1K3nRrStpBlc9cJsZekXZTGhZ56c5FlsGCSw9rMeQ8QfuT8_Qn_ZJ3mYPRgYdLCtTc15ptr3eC1cts0sdFRM_Arx9T9oNzueGfHP59/s1600/IMG_8301+240917.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhm65YThnUKZ03QLi9IwssT1q5JTvsspcALG1-Daq1K3nRrStpBlc9cJsZekXZTGhZ56c5FlsGCSw9rMeQ8QfuT8_Qn_ZJ3mYPRgYdLCtTc15ptr3eC1cts0sdFRM_Arx9T9oNzueGfHP59/s400/IMG_8301+240917.jpg" width="400" height="300" data-original-width="1063" data-original-height="797" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 4</center>
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBh2iZvLRxZXqR1Qm_OxEaJZd736LiM9cWBL0lVoeV0Q7dyBoS2Ns6AQz-Y1jb7VziJx0c_tkeFmfQSJDLT5vfAq252CprVtA_Xurrgw1ZSoWi88VYLZqRy8mKki61EE1NaIYPptQCY6xg/s1600/IMG_8294+240917.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBh2iZvLRxZXqR1Qm_OxEaJZd736LiM9cWBL0lVoeV0Q7dyBoS2Ns6AQz-Y1jb7VziJx0c_tkeFmfQSJDLT5vfAq252CprVtA_Xurrgw1ZSoWi88VYLZqRy8mKki61EE1NaIYPptQCY6xg/s400/IMG_8294+240917.jpg" width="400" height="300" data-original-width="1063" data-original-height="797" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 5</center>
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWK8o6PCSTsRq8DkUcL_kp5ZXwOzSzKqbmGXJcNtFZ6BLQw_KeR3YGTGB-2DC5JymEmgmmvooGZHqojjwMR6v9as3yXcae640mWCH4ACWkI7UoQPR0s9mA0KUXl7Q-6KGGYJFgPbR_7zgS/s1600/IMG_8298+240917.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWK8o6PCSTsRq8DkUcL_kp5ZXwOzSzKqbmGXJcNtFZ6BLQw_KeR3YGTGB-2DC5JymEmgmmvooGZHqojjwMR6v9as3yXcae640mWCH4ACWkI7UoQPR0s9mA0KUXl7Q-6KGGYJFgPbR_7zgS/s400/IMG_8298+240917.jpg" width="400" height="300" data-original-width="1063" data-original-height="797" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 6</center>
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjItKFduH9baw5wnuVZyR3qdtPgOE5RMsN-9s2iaPSaa0D3A187MbB35jMQN-kAkPc2ljMmzEKaiJ_K2Cf7utLjbyXJVctFqruIHbpOhHkuPVvgKEKb5DJXHBNYWkKs0OBVscCzT9d06dCT/s1600/IMG_8310+240917.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjItKFduH9baw5wnuVZyR3qdtPgOE5RMsN-9s2iaPSaa0D3A187MbB35jMQN-kAkPc2ljMmzEKaiJ_K2Cf7utLjbyXJVctFqruIHbpOhHkuPVvgKEKb5DJXHBNYWkKs0OBVscCzT9d06dCT/s400/IMG_8310+240917.jpg" width="400" height="300" data-original-width="1063" data-original-height="797" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 7</center>
<P>
Plates 8-10 show the bushfire fuel along the northern side of Cassidy Drive on 7 July 2017 and it's not hard to imagine the loss of dwellings across the other side of Cassidy Drive and deeper into Kennett River as fire runs towards them under weather conditions similar to Christmas Day 2015.
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNB2cl6u2m0uzVtQjCT7YMaY-NBa5-jkvFJOSWfBABokRlPYE9T1bAlgdhyphenhyphentTA3kFuJbfMCL35WkLN1hmDA5gwfK-p8X7UOGwZ_ArgqNYCAuAaObitw90JIkDjFJyPH-DD633vkNOnnJcA/s1600/IMG_8297+240917.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNB2cl6u2m0uzVtQjCT7YMaY-NBa5-jkvFJOSWfBABokRlPYE9T1bAlgdhyphenhyphentTA3kFuJbfMCL35WkLN1hmDA5gwfK-p8X7UOGwZ_ArgqNYCAuAaObitw90JIkDjFJyPH-DD633vkNOnnJcA/s400/IMG_8297+240917.jpg" width="400" height="300" data-original-width="1063" data-original-height="797" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 8</center>
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitExu-5Za56GsOWmgGBgy6KJf-O2kcysO5mvLOH5FefY7NQXq0weZWrA3Vr2WsJT51_StQfbWYrzj5woxVWL3s8zoo4PHm7ooxw8xfgG9R8FzJcyeD4EvZz5XTod8CvlmepDzgRDHApSiI/s1600/IMG_8299+240917.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitExu-5Za56GsOWmgGBgy6KJf-O2kcysO5mvLOH5FefY7NQXq0weZWrA3Vr2WsJT51_StQfbWYrzj5woxVWL3s8zoo4PHm7ooxw8xfgG9R8FzJcyeD4EvZz5XTod8CvlmepDzgRDHApSiI/s400/IMG_8299+240917.jpg" width="400" height="300" data-original-width="1063" data-original-height="797" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 9</center>
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiH1pvYgq8f0T7bblXf_oR0O6aoaKCNmb7mfu5-j2dS4V4KrEcjVk-cdl1BudQE0qtkeMxa3SSau6q65IHxshrp0zShrOwlayOEZsbZO2mFqHF_ZpJkzcnLoioqphcUjsWR7BpydjiW6sRQ/s1600/IMG_8308+240917.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiH1pvYgq8f0T7bblXf_oR0O6aoaKCNmb7mfu5-j2dS4V4KrEcjVk-cdl1BudQE0qtkeMxa3SSau6q65IHxshrp0zShrOwlayOEZsbZO2mFqHF_ZpJkzcnLoioqphcUjsWR7BpydjiW6sRQ/s400/IMG_8308+240917.jpg" width="400" height="300" data-original-width="1063" data-original-height="797" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 10</center>
<P>
Earlier this year DELWP conducted a fuel reduction in the forest between Wye River and Kennett River. Part of the results of that burn photographed from Cassidy Drive is visible through the trees in Plate 11.
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQpkT5l6D0RmbEmjBxmTVWyRoGIVUVu7m_WJcJpCm9DDenSQlFYibptu1Xl2M-qcnWKumTUJgMZ_6ktUsver5iYRaDfL_ibrPiuekE2E_pjvFoA0NSF62Lmq87jQAv_VrTXfYkTK_URRkU/s1600/IMG_8307+240917.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQpkT5l6D0RmbEmjBxmTVWyRoGIVUVu7m_WJcJpCm9DDenSQlFYibptu1Xl2M-qcnWKumTUJgMZ_6ktUsver5iYRaDfL_ibrPiuekE2E_pjvFoA0NSF62Lmq87jQAv_VrTXfYkTK_URRkU/s400/IMG_8307+240917.jpg" width="400" height="300" data-original-width="1063" data-original-height="797" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 11</center>
<P>
Plate 12 is the view generally west along Kennett Road, which is the next road towards Wye River from Cassidy Drive. Also photographed on 7 July 2017, visible at right of the road is the result of the fuel reduction burn. At the left side of the road the vegetation remained untouched up to Cassidy Drive in the area of land shown in Plates 8-10.
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsgxvkS63gl_c9T8neNGkYdvvAAKPGuGsrQ8UkGMnmbNWjb9RzXUjqWiF4X46o54o50fo5B_2wSTcNPi0Mw3WZf-_rDpSDfvgT7T4ao-wjYgZoA_Dg8nfENZ1hufyQCXXDf6-R71E-PAmW/s1600/IMG_8342+240917.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsgxvkS63gl_c9T8neNGkYdvvAAKPGuGsrQ8UkGMnmbNWjb9RzXUjqWiF4X46o54o50fo5B_2wSTcNPi0Mw3WZf-_rDpSDfvgT7T4ao-wjYgZoA_Dg8nfENZ1hufyQCXXDf6-R71E-PAmW/s400/IMG_8342+240917.jpg" width="400" height="300" data-original-width="1063" data-original-height="797" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 12</center>
<P>
Plate 13 brings the Cassidy Drive photos together on a Google Earth photo of the broader area.
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijfKh1G4UrEE3SdS1vtvSPn8onYcPbPf9x-0O2nYJq5i4n5c-LQtGWLJFsFfLl-DNDy9TA440J4uVix3ZhTSsSZI9vscr8LmQrEm1CJ-uvJcJG5p5truVqLQ3A8n6Wtuy1bFWtYtzN3tYQ/s1600/googlekr_01.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijfKh1G4UrEE3SdS1vtvSPn8onYcPbPf9x-0O2nYJq5i4n5c-LQtGWLJFsFfLl-DNDy9TA440J4uVix3ZhTSsSZI9vscr8LmQrEm1CJ-uvJcJG5p5truVqLQ3A8n6Wtuy1bFWtYtzN3tYQ/s400/googlekr_01.jpg" width="400" height="249" data-original-width="1570" data-original-height="979" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 13</center>
<P>
DELWP's <a href="https://www.ffm.vic.gov.au/who-we-are/code-of-practice"> Code of practice for bushfire management on public land </a> places a high priority on asset protection, obviously being neglected at Cassidy Drive. And what does the Colac Otway Municipal Fire Prevention Plan say about this part of Kennett River or is the shire ignoring the loss potential and willing to abandon the people involved to the same fate as Wye River–Separation Creek?
<P>
More than one way to fuel reduce for example brushcutters and cart away, community participation from those at risk. Seems to be something seriously amiss with fire management on public land in this part of Victoria. Maybe DELWP should look at this situation on the ground rather than rely on computer fire-modelling.
<P>
<b>ROLE OF THE CORONER</b>
<P>
In my next posting Improving bushfire management ... a missed opportunity Part 2 I will discuss the role of the Coroner. Some preparation for those interested <a href="http://www.legislation.vic.gov.au/Domino/Web_Notes/LDMS/LTObject_Store/LTObjSt10.nsf/DDE300B846EED9C7CA257616000A3571/6E1B73712612C768CA25814E0001448D/$FILE/08-77aa031%20authorised.pdf"> Coroners Act 2008.</a>
<P>
Food for thought the preamble in the Coroners Act:
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<P><div class="Style1" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 14.2pt; margin-right: 19.85pt; margin-top: 8.Opt; mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-line-break-override: restrictions; punctuation-wrap: simple; text-align: justify; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span class="CharacterStyle1"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">
<P>
<i>The coronial system of Victoria plays an important role in Victorian society. That role involves the independent investigation of deaths and fires for the purpose of finding the causes of those deaths and fires and to contribute to the reduction of the number of preventable deaths and fires and the promotion of public health and safety and the administration of justice.
<P>
This role will be enhanced by creating a Coroners Court and setting out the role of the Coroners Court and the coronial system and the procedures for coronial investigations.</i></div></span></span>
Question is, has the Coroner failed Victorians with her ruling?
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bushfireaustraliahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11517140957697336597noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5747072893756120712.post-30308050686985909882017-04-17T09:30:00.002+10:002017-04-18T08:27:43.430+10:00Jamieson Creek bushfire — marketing a myth; a hypotheticalFollowing on from my Tuesday, 28 March 2017 posting <a href="http://bushfireaustralia.blogspot.com.au/2017/03/wye-riverseparation-creek-bushfire.html"> "Wye River–Separation Creek bushfire — lightning strike and what to look for"</a>, where would one take an independent investigator to stand at the top of a “gorge” to demonstrate “inaccessibility” and point out the scene of a lightning strike through tree canopies that are very largely unaffected by a fire?
<P>
If one wanted to point out a “gorge” one would drive along the relatively sedate Cumberland Track off Wye Road via Curtis Track or maybe come in from the Lorne end if that’s not too rough. It’s certainly a very steep drop down off the southern side of Cumberland Track in places.
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5b75xJ9GVZ1jQMmOE__5iztXlBNDESc4IhGKEN_6ArPnrRi98VdzHtgIx2FALjdeV4wRWrSftwMa0-wTNLwSqb06z7Sj5NgqoLlpoh1HLIHEWhE74VHyekKKm4dvbJ2Ydr-T5H7041qkr/s1600/G0120492_040417.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5b75xJ9GVZ1jQMmOE__5iztXlBNDESc4IhGKEN_6ArPnrRi98VdzHtgIx2FALjdeV4wRWrSftwMa0-wTNLwSqb06z7Sj5NgqoLlpoh1HLIHEWhE74VHyekKKm4dvbJ2Ydr-T5H7041qkr/s400/G0120492_040417.jpg" width="400" height="300" /></a></div>
<P>
Relevant maps, etc, from my posting of Monday, 20 March 2017 <a href="http://bushfireaustralia.blogspot.com.au/2017/03/wye-riverseparation-creek-bushfire-in.html"> "Wye River–Separation Creek bushfire — in pursuit of the truth"</a>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigrfGqOqCyUvcA90O1qcKfEtAHaVwQDKCb_kbT3WhGZxETVoW8jza7Mtd6aIlLsVWXxntCWe0UZ5VNuxQVlWkaM1p5hg9pgGtKNj7j7-l5QSujadHRCG5bw7gXbq2x0oqRoHmd7Z1VWAK6/s1600/VicmapTopo_30k_A3_T7620-1-1-S+Lorne-Wye+River+area+extract_1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="303" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigrfGqOqCyUvcA90O1qcKfEtAHaVwQDKCb_kbT3WhGZxETVoW8jza7Mtd6aIlLsVWXxntCWe0UZ5VNuxQVlWkaM1p5hg9pgGtKNj7j7-l5QSujadHRCG5bw7gXbq2x0oqRoHmd7Z1VWAK6/s400/VicmapTopo_30k_A3_T7620-1-1-S+Lorne-Wye+River+area+extract_1.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiA_szTPkPJrkldXADncL6Ol6fbWeUADyOcDdsUnPEJdrq_XYczTw0SC7YMuBUlWI3ApfPRtemGiE2xUiFm0MLzvxVi_eHGUK0H5RU2k7ARsRpZW1CnHF8QIw4ljbsGwmluZgyBYSJCDHg0/s1600/Indicated+perimeter+EMV+Map+of+WRSC+fire+management+pre-Christmas+2015_191215_030217.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="265" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiA_szTPkPJrkldXADncL6Ol6fbWeUADyOcDdsUnPEJdrq_XYczTw0SC7YMuBUlWI3ApfPRtemGiE2xUiFm0MLzvxVi_eHGUK0H5RU2k7ARsRpZW1CnHF8QIw4ljbsGwmluZgyBYSJCDHg0/s400/Indicated+perimeter+EMV+Map+of+WRSC+fire+management+pre-Christmas+2015_191215_030217.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnoUFpvrRDuRfORryOra-tmkb11hhGVoknbGHw9Gmda_BNAoP8-Xjb0TH_C9XcAumC410jIwfJsqTPiOmLHBJAbqIyBM1eJR12PjFBjS8UZwN8rhaArVEIMv3oLLSg9svlAVhsj9zkDqIX/s1600/Lightning+strike+area+01_030217.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="238" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnoUFpvrRDuRfORryOra-tmkb11hhGVoknbGHw9Gmda_BNAoP8-Xjb0TH_C9XcAumC410jIwfJsqTPiOmLHBJAbqIyBM1eJR12PjFBjS8UZwN8rhaArVEIMv3oLLSg9svlAVhsj9zkDqIX/s400/Lightning+strike+area+01_030217.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<P>
Or maybe drive along the relatively sedate Jamieson Track off Wye Road to impress with a steep, to some, drop off from the northern side of that track.
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjZyK9aOjv7sX-AKVfTJJUi_eF5ySt7ZZ963w5O9BEKJ9co4RztFOr_-_Gac7Y4S3Q3ZTHd88nbCuGp8Jpvx5knwvvlEjmie7HZxHcr1t5pOBfsjo_A7nw6w6nl31ba_8CdE0sRS_OehWg/s1600/G0120466_040417.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjZyK9aOjv7sX-AKVfTJJUi_eF5ySt7ZZ963w5O9BEKJ9co4RztFOr_-_Gac7Y4S3Q3ZTHd88nbCuGp8Jpvx5knwvvlEjmie7HZxHcr1t5pOBfsjo_A7nw6w6nl31ba_8CdE0sRS_OehWg/s400/G0120466_040417.jpg" width="400" height="300" /></a></div>
<P>
Below are two photos of the northern side of Jamieson Track near where the drone was flown.
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4BTtOqqe3pACQS7A8CYskDymai-REjiRHPl91b0RsvGdX0oes5fmZBAI1cs4VmbJzRK0EryJQP9grduqoRByK79WU2-yO3ZeXo15pBmiAbfsRI94FeuqUCPnyCEECTEy3NXvCXEABx3Ee/s1600/IMG_7455_040417.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4BTtOqqe3pACQS7A8CYskDymai-REjiRHPl91b0RsvGdX0oes5fmZBAI1cs4VmbJzRK0EryJQP9grduqoRByK79WU2-yO3ZeXo15pBmiAbfsRI94FeuqUCPnyCEECTEy3NXvCXEABx3Ee/s400/IMG_7455_040417.jpg" width="400" height="300" /></a></div>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiAI5qG5bKk_qUeT87j9yIh71r_-57t1DpBo-rvFIPU8yUSI_oU1EkmEmGTvXRjqOb1W55is4QnnZJyaU4I0DQjIGliIHfVKI5JRzupEj7h7Lql1hynSkIBVLLTUew0p_cp9ONCVpCAQnQ-/s1600/IMG_7454_040417.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiAI5qG5bKk_qUeT87j9yIh71r_-57t1DpBo-rvFIPU8yUSI_oU1EkmEmGTvXRjqOb1W55is4QnnZJyaU4I0DQjIGliIHfVKI5JRzupEj7h7Lql1hynSkIBVLLTUew0p_cp9ONCVpCAQnQ-/s400/IMG_7454_040417.jpg" width="400" height="300" /></a></div>
<P>
One would hardly have the investigator bounce along a steep in a couple places and dusty bulldozed track to show a gorge that does not exist on the southern side of Jamieson Creek. A track that leaves Wye Road in the condition as shown in the following photograph.
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjhGouTwXX5iu67Wty92hLXsT60Wozh4fVHmMtdTmFWJXGehuXqxhWd6XDY0GR-pNHTJGh853n0c4rJWi_C2PJImnooRFcTVerERIVoXSpVjFjQGqOjlndqJzwYSG7w4GQfaS_8DlIlprhP/s1600/IMG_7471_160417.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjhGouTwXX5iu67Wty92hLXsT60Wozh4fVHmMtdTmFWJXGehuXqxhWd6XDY0GR-pNHTJGh853n0c4rJWi_C2PJImnooRFcTVerERIVoXSpVjFjQGqOjlndqJzwYSG7w4GQfaS_8DlIlprhP/s400/IMG_7471_160417.jpg" width="400" height="300" /></a></div>
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And further along that track to where I parked my vehicle, and from where easy access to the site of the lightning strike as shown in my posting on Tuesday, 28 March 2017 <a href="http://bushfireaustralia.blogspot.com.au/2017/03/wye-riverseparation-creek-bushfire.html">"Wye River–Separation Creek bushfire — lightning strike and what to look for"</a> can be achieved on foot. Photographs in that posting show the slope that I've calculated from the 1:30 000 topographical map to be approximately 15 degrees down towards the north and north of northwest and Jamieson Creek at the foot of the slope.
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhp4JaY9SS8CVhy3293jcikzVbt6o6qH287x55OSayTcB68Yt2veu-KrWXvbf0cryj3s-ICEFJeS0nT6Ic9ta1eXUsTbSc2avP6mXNIq5IQygNiLFq3JD1_vlFkmFmDqgJDwOIt3zjpoKQf/s1600/DSC_0364_160417.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhp4JaY9SS8CVhy3293jcikzVbt6o6qH287x55OSayTcB68Yt2veu-KrWXvbf0cryj3s-ICEFJeS0nT6Ic9ta1eXUsTbSc2avP6mXNIq5IQygNiLFq3JD1_vlFkmFmDqgJDwOIt3zjpoKQf/s400/DSC_0364_160417.jpg" width="258" height="400" /></a></div>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4Vp4isvVeYwiLgWVaBMvt2YleEA4c-_lypXd8vaLP-wy2Jlj9W870uI6pAuchnUFqDisji9TIGL5UGHHHwe9XG3wf61fa640UCPt2tPLgMHmYJ7gnsz1OLjyLYISozWuK1lPl_eDji5V9/s1600/DSC_0367_160417.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4Vp4isvVeYwiLgWVaBMvt2YleEA4c-_lypXd8vaLP-wy2Jlj9W870uI6pAuchnUFqDisji9TIGL5UGHHHwe9XG3wf61fa640UCPt2tPLgMHmYJ7gnsz1OLjyLYISozWuK1lPl_eDji5V9/s400/DSC_0367_160417.jpg" width="400" height="259" /></a></div>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSlY104gu8hhfEPbzz5ioz5IU4NyNM2KTuDGtM7gvqa3ZHF_VXHNiO_UWlJ4ANh1gGfxJhS9bFhRxIf1FowKrWJsgB2MzpdL2EI3YHAvA9ESwzxTeFFvlOkW9BSOCUQjbORJHlFFIaq7aM/s1600/DSC_0375_160417.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSlY104gu8hhfEPbzz5ioz5IU4NyNM2KTuDGtM7gvqa3ZHF_VXHNiO_UWlJ4ANh1gGfxJhS9bFhRxIf1FowKrWJsgB2MzpdL2EI3YHAvA9ESwzxTeFFvlOkW9BSOCUQjbORJHlFFIaq7aM/s400/DSC_0375_160417.jpg" width="400" height="259" /></a></div>
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<P>
And further on towards the northeast from where my vehicle is parked.
<P>
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<P>
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<P>
If one had access to a helicopter the investigator could be flown over the whole fire area to impress, while avoiding providing access to enable the investigator to actually ‘walk the ground’ around the lightning strike.
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjA9TgY6I1GoSRrBumdk_Ifw2zfzS8GtuydoLLzvkYlSjOEzE3t1F1VoqVskm_kuGBS8i21d_qfn-nldbSo9BtJkx9tbvps3wk-w6eF6SqAT7zOWfDutN5fcjRdDXr7TNJ3QoNLD-qj5Vus/s1600/IMG_7808_160417.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjA9TgY6I1GoSRrBumdk_Ifw2zfzS8GtuydoLLzvkYlSjOEzE3t1F1VoqVskm_kuGBS8i21d_qfn-nldbSo9BtJkx9tbvps3wk-w6eF6SqAT7zOWfDutN5fcjRdDXr7TNJ3QoNLD-qj5Vus/s400/IMG_7808_160417.jpg" width="400" height="212" /></a></div>
<P>
The government's position on inaccessibility, fact or fiction? Fiction!
<P>
<b>A case of operational dysfunction?</b>
<P>
I've recently seen an email from DELWP to a citizen who suffered loss from the Wye River–Separation Creek bushfire that includes the following statement: "as they [EMV] were the lead control agency of the Wye River-Jamieson Track fire".
<P>
Raises questions of competence and the possibility of operational dysfunction right from the beginning of the lightning strike. And opportunism?
<P>
Clearly a need to re-examine the IGEM's <a href="http://www.igem.vic.gov.au/home/reports+and+publications/reports/report+review+of+the+initial+response+to+the+2015+wye+river+jamieson+track+fire"> "Review of the initial response to the 2015 Wye River–Jamieson Track fire"</a> in the light of DELWP's stated position.
<P>
Finally, what drives me? Costs involved with bushfire continuing to rise due to emphasis on <i>response</i> and <i>recovery</i> rather than <i>prevention</i> by governments at all levels, as covered in this story in the 12 April 2017 edition of <a href="http://www.exposed.net.au/ozinsurancebills.pdf"> <i>The Australian</i></a>.
<P>
Wye River–Separation Creek is a prime example of governments and supine politicians failing us, as covered in my Sunday, 21 February 2016 posting <a href="http://bushfireaustralia.blogspot.com.au/2016/02/obfuscation-sanitising-cabinet-in.html"> "Obfuscation, sanitising, cabinet-in-confidence documents, burying, leaking — examples of some of the processes of government"</a>.
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bushfireaustraliahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11517140957697336597noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5747072893756120712.post-29506833274084175212017-03-28T22:04:00.001+11:002017-04-01T09:46:25.295+11:00Wye River–Separation Creek bushfire — lightning strike and what to look forMy blog posting of 20 March 2017 <a href="http://bushfireaustralia.blogspot.com.au/2017/03/wye-riverseparation-creek-bushfire-in.html"> "Wye River–Separation Creek bushfire — in pursuit of the truth"</a> includes a photograph showing the area where I believe the lightning struck. Included in the paragraph preceding the photograph is the following:
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<P>
Note the large burnt stump visible at left in the photograph.</div></span></span>
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxyBbHda65R6V0I7AQoc5qfDXDmZtfkutF1rL5WWWM8k3rTUmU1rqUnbHhpRKRTHKQvnEkNXPQl10hqjVL75-p8KhnHSHmRgQtzKXu9WtTKoNOGRQBMAvdb_ROsleJn87f6QgOQCDqieco/s1600/IMG_7857_290317.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxyBbHda65R6V0I7AQoc5qfDXDmZtfkutF1rL5WWWM8k3rTUmU1rqUnbHhpRKRTHKQvnEkNXPQl10hqjVL75-p8KhnHSHmRgQtzKXu9WtTKoNOGRQBMAvdb_ROsleJn87f6QgOQCDqieco/s400/IMG_7857_290317.jpg" width="400" height="300" /></a></div>
<P>
My objective was to illustrate that there was nothing difficult about the terrain in the general area of the lightning strike that would have prevented physically fit, experienced and safety conscious DELWP firefighters and also that the vegetation was not too dense to prevent effective use of suitable and properly tasked water bombing aircraft.
<P>
I've been seeking advice on lightning strikes and what to look for to be as sure of my facts as possible and provide the following examples, and there are many more, of what I've studied:
<P>
<a href="http://www.sciencemadesimple.co.uk/activity-blogs/lightning"> "Science Made Simple"</a> that includes an informative video of the details of a lightning strike.
<P>
<a href="http://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/natural-disasters/lightning"> "National Geographic on Lightning"</a> with another informative video.
<P>
Concerning the Jamieson Creek lightning strike, I find the following in the National Geographic discourse describes the situation found that I alluded to with my reference to the "large burnt stump":
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<P>
Lightning's extreme heat will vaporize the water inside a tree, creating steam that may blow the tree apart.</div></span></span>
<P>
This is the remains of the tree that I believe took the brunt of the lightning strike.
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3CW8Kv_J5mLoQgpNTGDilndg8gBhtqqWx49S_npoA57tKrAh8pQybXGHnGuxkJBx5DfPpM5yEBs90aAO6VXrr2T56NPd32wPvWjXobhscmhQLTMfhVoXCclbSwECmznNVTRSzn1LVmAOa/s1600/IMG_7854_Plate+1_290317..jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3CW8Kv_J5mLoQgpNTGDilndg8gBhtqqWx49S_npoA57tKrAh8pQybXGHnGuxkJBx5DfPpM5yEBs90aAO6VXrr2T56NPd32wPvWjXobhscmhQLTMfhVoXCclbSwECmznNVTRSzn1LVmAOa/s400/IMG_7854_Plate+1_290317..jpg" width="400" height="300" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 1</center>
<P>
The burnt stump shown at left in the first photograph in this posting is at left in Plate 1. The fallen tree in the centre has separated from the stump. The damaged stump in the centre appears to have been damaged by the fallen tree to its left.
<P>
Note the severe burn isolated to the lower part of the tree. This deep, small area of burning is consistent with the intense heat from a lightning strike at or near the base of the erect living tree—lightning does not necessarily strike the top of a tree, it all depends on where the upwards moving positive charge “streamer” emanates from, and it could even be the ground alongside a tree or an isolated rocky outcrop.
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPmbAGeVv7OmYDWTufGB_rtoINpqstCn21zIqO48ZfelP4RU1Gkv3BWlIQvXoFMhr8A4cTl52ADwrf9HeKr0_Wv3YeZGK-WwpJguP7_1wZ5rgUUIUWRA6fQ8D9DYV5cQ_qPuBFiaLDxrtX/s1600/IMG_7853_Plate+2_290317.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPmbAGeVv7OmYDWTufGB_rtoINpqstCn21zIqO48ZfelP4RU1Gkv3BWlIQvXoFMhr8A4cTl52ADwrf9HeKr0_Wv3YeZGK-WwpJguP7_1wZ5rgUUIUWRA6fQ8D9DYV5cQ_qPuBFiaLDxrtX/s400/IMG_7853_Plate+2_290317.jpg" width="400" height="300" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 2</center>
<P>
Plate 2 is another view of the stump and its fallen top as indicated.
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVYw_NFU1LthjkgP-YO_cnbAJ1HYkTb2OJvSsJ-P5PPzCv_Kl3SZbTCvZrlxS_-h3ORm7VvQr0362IF-cwZc7zTJcJyyngV7Rv3YmlxDDCVlpxA4FcbGUzuyHuevrCwtpTS5uxoXjaleod/s1600/IMG_7855_300317.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVYw_NFU1LthjkgP-YO_cnbAJ1HYkTb2OJvSsJ-P5PPzCv_Kl3SZbTCvZrlxS_-h3ORm7VvQr0362IF-cwZc7zTJcJyyngV7Rv3YmlxDDCVlpxA4FcbGUzuyHuevrCwtpTS5uxoXjaleod/s400/IMG_7855_300317.jpg" width="300" height="400" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 3</center>
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhlST4-iVknIyK9TJ-EPuPSQxsIJQp9acbNiNMxtuaUBF7srGq7Mz1UwNHqOskyKpnzD94c6oqXYt4xNGcf4_RC0RsriwsyOIn2VmOl5XJgBp3YnOK3HTCMekNj2p-X6vLbs23ottvdHH-m/s1600/IMG_7856_300317.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhlST4-iVknIyK9TJ-EPuPSQxsIJQp9acbNiNMxtuaUBF7srGq7Mz1UwNHqOskyKpnzD94c6oqXYt4xNGcf4_RC0RsriwsyOIn2VmOl5XJgBp3YnOK3HTCMekNj2p-X6vLbs23ottvdHH-m/s400/IMG_7856_300317.jpg" width="300" height="400" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 4</center>
<P>
Plates 3 and 4 show the stump. Note the depth of the charring, particularly concentrated at the left side of the stump.
<P>
Plate 3 also shows the damage caused by a violent separation of the tree from the stump, almost as if the result an explosion.
<P>
Back to the tree; it was a living gum—EVC 201:Shrubby Wet Forest from <a href="http://mapshare2.dse.vic.gov.au/MapShare2EXT/imf.jsp?site=bim"> Biodiversity Interactive Map - 3.2</a> indicates Mountain Grey Gum <i>Eucalyptus cypellocarpa</i> and checking Leon Costerman’s <i>Native Trees and Shrubs of South-Eastern Australia</i> satisfies me—containing moisture that would have required far more and prolonged exposure to heat of a level that's not associated with a fire moving across the ground to produce a burn of this depth.
<P>
I suspect it was a relatively mild fire for those first couple of day, as logs and larger stumps already on the ground in the area had suffered little more than superficial charring, as Plates 5, 6, 7 and 8 show.
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEho6LGZvdeVBFimm9nGjRgvjCBJi_MunW1cz8XO_efFg0x2VV_zlz2Z3omd8yTW7cX34MOgthWO_UDZtqo-ndxxdwaJziZi5I3JJsmIGAElEw6PqZ9_LkvFDLqVMYspPy_nDjyOzEGo5vff/s1600/IMG_7833_300317.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEho6LGZvdeVBFimm9nGjRgvjCBJi_MunW1cz8XO_efFg0x2VV_zlz2Z3omd8yTW7cX34MOgthWO_UDZtqo-ndxxdwaJziZi5I3JJsmIGAElEw6PqZ9_LkvFDLqVMYspPy_nDjyOzEGo5vff/s400/IMG_7833_300317.jpg" width="400" height="300" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 5</center>
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsW6Au4kjeSN8OV1c4hmd9ivxoVtlIY6HZ_N8Rn-nXWy70IfDSUc-lUGAho-sreAm99QIl92YZgO0Mmrc-XrGwi1IcnwfVLtzRUv7wwDqyWUUga3idJggH1nYEkYxIfJegfJzoZLO3lKsb/s1600/IMG_7830_300317.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsW6Au4kjeSN8OV1c4hmd9ivxoVtlIY6HZ_N8Rn-nXWy70IfDSUc-lUGAho-sreAm99QIl92YZgO0Mmrc-XrGwi1IcnwfVLtzRUv7wwDqyWUUga3idJggH1nYEkYxIfJegfJzoZLO3lKsb/s400/IMG_7830_300317.jpg" width="400" height="300" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 6</center>
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhlHbGK-RInC52h-YYwyouLEjTYRpLO0c_-5vSxirhlGYQC3EmCwEedX42CtPHZleZc0YCzDgYug0zN-nMLYjAGHom6L4EcuzvGodU5am1Gbl7oNWEqkJX6URg0LVHlub7WAkGv-e5VHneF/s1600/IMG_7838_300317.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhlHbGK-RInC52h-YYwyouLEjTYRpLO0c_-5vSxirhlGYQC3EmCwEedX42CtPHZleZc0YCzDgYug0zN-nMLYjAGHom6L4EcuzvGodU5am1Gbl7oNWEqkJX6URg0LVHlub7WAkGv-e5VHneF/s400/IMG_7838_300317.jpg" width="400" height="300" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 7</center>
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjqYXk6MAon4CqXFRh0xOcFQHF_gfiwkGcUkvLeQ9KBh_ULuDvDNpDVa5TkAkSyIazFvKaPYEtsq7keaNC_aAm81c3kDuLsfsW0yipvLb3T63LW2SPRX8hzcVBXMHKRqkzLfp4wKLe9dH-6/s1600/IMG_7849_300317.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjqYXk6MAon4CqXFRh0xOcFQHF_gfiwkGcUkvLeQ9KBh_ULuDvDNpDVa5TkAkSyIazFvKaPYEtsq7keaNC_aAm81c3kDuLsfsW0yipvLb3T63LW2SPRX8hzcVBXMHKRqkzLfp4wKLe9dH-6/s400/IMG_7849_300317.jpg" width="400" height="300" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 8</center>
<P>
An explanation for the seemingly burnt trees. Scattered within the area are Messmate Stringybark <i>Eucalyptus obliqua</i> that account for a few trees with blackened trunks, which is due to the fibrous bark but not the trunks burning. Plate 9 is an example of Messmate Stringybark from the Christmas Hills area.
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjww7bbTCS_3xg3CA022Mb_AA72MqvDKmYzrKs3CDkULPnLmWgEf5b3ItXmKAcywgZdZOlWazxnQ9regrroYjF2hkzbLSVOq0r7b5j38uYz4lnzhle6UYJVg48FPOkkxBllupi6Z3HsHJGk/s1600/IMG_7770_190414.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjww7bbTCS_3xg3CA022Mb_AA72MqvDKmYzrKs3CDkULPnLmWgEf5b3ItXmKAcywgZdZOlWazxnQ9regrroYjF2hkzbLSVOq0r7b5j38uYz4lnzhle6UYJVg48FPOkkxBllupi6Z3HsHJGk/s400/IMG_7770_190414.jpg" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 9</center>
<P>
Costerman describes the bark of the Mountain Grey Gum as:
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<span class="CharacterStyle1"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">
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Smooth, grey often with yellow and whitish patches, sheds [bark] in strips or plates; may be rough and darker at base.</div></span></span>
<P>
Plate 10 shows the relatively easily ignitable roughness at the base of a Mountain Grey Gum (or very similar) and becoming plates or strips further up the trunk. Sufficiently dry and standing off from the trunk can see fire extend further up the trunk to involve this bark without igniting the trunk. The arrows indicate examples of the stages of bark from the ground up.
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiM3sZIMLmQPHCCSgNr7je45qGbU5oYmdcfgcsZhCaCbVZ_9Cn_B2CZS7xt0rM75d_dAnWur3weUMx-AVlvS6VnzXIocA-PC_Z2EHfScpzAXdUXRxyDQBW2DOoPO4vNKAoOa-dQkZrLbBQ8/s1600/IMG_7840_300317.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiM3sZIMLmQPHCCSgNr7je45qGbU5oYmdcfgcsZhCaCbVZ_9Cn_B2CZS7xt0rM75d_dAnWur3weUMx-AVlvS6VnzXIocA-PC_Z2EHfScpzAXdUXRxyDQBW2DOoPO4vNKAoOa-dQkZrLbBQ8/s400/IMG_7840_300317.jpg" width="400" height="300" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 10</center>
<P>
Plates 11 and 12 show the unburnt vegetation to the west and on the opposite side of the <i>control line</i> from the fire area, photographed at similar level to the lightning strike.
<P>
Plate 12 shows bark renewing itself on Stringybarks following much earlier exposure to fire.
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiaK3UyMQqyO9AwINtj9Dv6THKxBliijCV4ZsHxZLI6PuhFmYlGL9wvEVH5oIi7iyQN_J2m66xEnzMh9_OdjpDvp2SX7ir-Fj9E89W_SH27nDl5dFCweTbP9vAm2H7xH0DAlFeBQ9M0bghj/s1600/IMG_7844_310317.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiaK3UyMQqyO9AwINtj9Dv6THKxBliijCV4ZsHxZLI6PuhFmYlGL9wvEVH5oIi7iyQN_J2m66xEnzMh9_OdjpDvp2SX7ir-Fj9E89W_SH27nDl5dFCweTbP9vAm2H7xH0DAlFeBQ9M0bghj/s400/IMG_7844_310317.jpg" width="400" height="300" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 11</center>
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHYNMxNb9sGJQEUReCAJLuKOp_R4f9wXzeuPYGRtg4myb_hoGNQDbyBggBmXyg7wf2SpbOgsaJ4oVDq4HnDNEM0oamY9p7c7UgZi74gMj_K7kgXLLHVtu3TMn6y_sNHXXVrTSYtW6lRm97/s1600/IMG_7841_310317.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHYNMxNb9sGJQEUReCAJLuKOp_R4f9wXzeuPYGRtg4myb_hoGNQDbyBggBmXyg7wf2SpbOgsaJ4oVDq4HnDNEM0oamY9p7c7UgZi74gMj_K7kgXLLHVtu3TMn6y_sNHXXVrTSYtW6lRm97/s400/IMG_7841_310317.jpg" width="400" height="300" /></a></div>
<center>Plate 12</center>
<P>
Photos in this and recent postings show that there was nothing difficult about the area for fit and experienced <a href="https://www.facebook.com/FFMVic/photos/a.190237880994697.46750.170379179647234/1513321785352960/?type=3"> DELWP firefighters</a> to round up the initially small fire in the first couple of days, and to argue that the vegetation was to dense to respond to <b>proper</b> air attack is arrant nonsense if DELWP's use of water bombing aircraft in Gippsland in recent days is any guide.
<P>
The annotated Google Earth photo shows the way to where I believe the lightning struck: Position 11. Not difficult to find nor hard to reach on the ground, but always with an eye upwards at the trees above. And approximately 250 metres from a well-formed four wheel drive track.
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZwaDIb6TZO3t1we49AhsJ5BJw0hewihj0Be6ojgHAybOFFAXpes3PkBO9jjucM_jau7mjT9uZJNvI4wdvYkPGY2CQmIpqMp_mn8-D6rwI5P26CQto9ZeTjAUl8SD8julUMrOiKpmCxuLg/s1600/Google+Earth+180317.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZwaDIb6TZO3t1we49AhsJ5BJw0hewihj0Be6ojgHAybOFFAXpes3PkBO9jjucM_jau7mjT9uZJNvI4wdvYkPGY2CQmIpqMp_mn8-D6rwI5P26CQto9ZeTjAUl8SD8julUMrOiKpmCxuLg/s400/Google+Earth+180317.jpg" width="400" height="237" /></a></div>
<P>
<b>Why then the failure to slay the Jamieson Creek beast in its infancy?</b>
<P>
On page 27, third paragraph under the heading "Initial fire control strategy 19–21 December", in the "IGEM's Review of the initial response ..."
<P><div class="Style1" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 14.2pt; margin-right: 19.85pt; margin-top: 8.Opt; mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-line-break-override: restrictions; punctuation-wrap: simple; text-align: justify; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span class="CharacterStyle1"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">
<P>
Through the period 19 to late 21 December, the IC's [Incident Controller] broad strategy was to establish bare earth containment lines to limit the fire's spread within the area bounded by the Cumberland Track to the north, and Jamieson Track to the south.
</div></span></span>
<P>
As can be seen in the following annotated <a href="http://bushfireaustralia.blogspot.com.au/2017/02/wye-riverseparation-creek-bushfire-fake.html"> Google Earth photo</a>, the area of land between Cumberland Track and Jamieson Track is huge compared to the size of the fire on 19 December.
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnoUFpvrRDuRfORryOra-tmkb11hhGVoknbGHw9Gmda_BNAoP8-Xjb0TH_C9XcAumC410jIwfJsqTPiOmLHBJAbqIyBM1eJR12PjFBjS8UZwN8rhaArVEIMv3oLLSg9svlAVhsj9zkDqIX/s1600/Lightning+strike+area+01_030217.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="238" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnoUFpvrRDuRfORryOra-tmkb11hhGVoknbGHw9Gmda_BNAoP8-Xjb0TH_C9XcAumC410jIwfJsqTPiOmLHBJAbqIyBM1eJR12PjFBjS8UZwN8rhaArVEIMv3oLLSg9svlAVhsj9zkDqIX/s400/Lightning+strike+area+01_030217.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<P>
Why this plan so early and probably before the Incident Control Team really knew what they had to contend with?
<P>
Inexperience, incompetence, panic, interference from above, budget restraint or was the Incident Controller 'marching to the beat of a different drummer' — sign found at the corner of Curtis Track and Cumberland Track on 9 January 2017?
<P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZw9n-6eWZ6cnd2S0s62uTttPw8ifDGO2WJbCngt6FkpspBrmwg2GHtBhtZPeskF4A1k18mkggXd_5HYaSW6vqcPNvPdxj97Y29sDTlao4sQHL-f0VTwO8p5eaTn-P7mRHWHbWLUYfL9xa/s1600/IMG_20170109_050217.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZw9n-6eWZ6cnd2S0s62uTttPw8ifDGO2WJbCngt6FkpspBrmwg2GHtBhtZPeskF4A1k18mkggXd_5HYaSW6vqcPNvPdxj97Y29sDTlao4sQHL-f0VTwO8p5eaTn-P7mRHWHbWLUYfL9xa/s400/IMG_20170109_050217.jpg" width="400" height="400" /></a></div>
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