Here, I'm principally addressing bushfire — a failed emergency management methodology ruled by dogma.
Tuesday, 28 January 2025
Houses save people and people save houses
Important to consider the one-size-fits-all leave early policy and ask the question; how many homes and businesses have been lost as a result and can it be improved? Indeed, what is the basis of the advice?
In recent history there are examples of individuals who’ve stayed behind to save their own home and those of several of their neighbours. Here's recent example from Los Angeles:
How one man defied evacuation orders to stay and save his home
He said he wished the Los Angeles Fire Department put in the same effort as he did. "When I was out here, hosing the house down and getting ready and when the houses started to burn, I didn't see one single fire truck out here at all. Zero.
"If they had had some fire trucks and just put a squirt here, a squirt there and kept an eye on things, all these houses would be here now. I'm telling you right now. I saw it with my own eyeballs. All these houses.
"The houses behind me they're all gone. They started with one little spark, one little small fire. They just squirted those out, had a few people out there, they'd all be here now."
AUSTRALIA
Within Australia and certainly in Victoria there is anecdotal and other evidence of people staying and succeeding in protecting their homes.
Deplorable that the desire of people to protect their homes is not really acknowledged by the fire services and people supported accordingly rather than scaring them into leaving — some will want to stay and defend their homes.
“But in many minds, staying to defend your house is the Australian test of grit: it’s proof that you deserve to be living in the bush in the first place.”
From the book "the arsonist A Mind on Fire, by Chloe Hooper, Penguin Random House Australia Pty Ltd, 2018."
Then there is the harmful impact on insurance availability to consider.
Whatever happened to continual improvement that in modern history should have at least been benchmarked on the recommendations in the 2009 Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission, which included fuel management!
While finalising this posting I became aware that the evacuation of Dimboola was being urged. Reasonable to ask, had those responsible for urging the evacuation ever been to Dimboola and assessed its vulnerability to bushfire? I am reminded of the Maui Wildfires – December 23, 2024 when considering the loss potential at Dimboola.
Finally, Plate 2 (above) would be a fair representation of a panic-stricken populace fleeing a bushfire — the emergency management agencies and the media do nothing to dispel the fear.
Wednesday, 8 January 2025
The Ides of Christmas in Victoria: Bushfire and the accompanying 'smokescreen'
People being virtually ordered from their homes and businesses in a broad-brush approach with seemingly little or no consideration of the actual vulnerability of those structures.
But first, Western Victoria, another example of how Victorians rely on the indefatigable CFA volunteers, with due respect to all the others involved in or supporting the firefight.
You might wonder why my interest in the Mountain Fire in Camarillo, California (Plate 1) but here's a story in The Washington Post 16 December 2024 about obtaining insurance for a family home that includes wildfire (bushfire in Australia if you prefer), certainly relevant in Australia. An extract from the story:
The small mountain town, a short drive from Lake Tahoe, offered the former preschool teacher and her husband, a carpenter, a shot at becoming middle class by escaping crushing housing costs near Santa Cruz, California.
“We moved up here for a better life,” she said in a phone interview. “For two or three years, we got that taste.” The small mountain town, a short drive from Lake Tahoe, offered the former preschool teacher and her husband, a carpenter, a shot at becoming middle class by escaping crushing housing costs near Santa Cruz, California. “We moved up here for a better life,” she said in a phone interview. “For two or three years, we got that taste.”
Then the insurance bills came. In 2017, the couple paid $1,100 to insure their small cabin. But since then, nine of California’s 10 largest wildfires have erupted, sending the insurance market into turmoil. Three insurers have dropped her in three years. This year, a basic policy from the public FAIR plan, the state-run insurer of last resort, and supplemental private insurance will cost Temple $6,000. It’s likely to rise again. “Now we’re back to watching each paycheck,” she said, “and budgeting for everything.”
Temple is among the many Americans watching their hold on homeownership slip away as insurance costs balloon beyond their ability to pay. “This is our first house. I don’t want to leave,” said Temple, struggling to keep her composure. “I try not to look too far into the future. I get scared.”
Insuring your home has never been harder. Here’s how to do it.
AUSTRALIA
Difficulties in obtaining insurance associated with bushfire risk is also being experienced in Australia. From Bellrock:
and
If underwriting losses exceed returns, insurers will cease to provide insurance cover at an affordable price. We have already witnessed this in parts of the world such as the USA where cover for bushfire in parts of California is unavailable except via a state scheme known as The California Fair Access to Insurance Requirements (FAIR). That scheme provides very basic last resort cover at a very high price point. Government in Australia, at all levels, is hesitant to provide any such scheme as they themselves are already carrying significant exposure on their own property portfolio.
Important to consider the one-size-fits-all leave early policy and ask the question; how many homes and businesses have been otherwise avoidably lost as a result and can it be improved? Indeed, what is the basis of the advice?
Then there’s the posting of warnings. It must have been confusing, indeed frightening for some as the plethora of warnings and areas they applied to were issued over days. Again, can it be improved?
Responsibility and accountability
Extract from an ABC story:
Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan said she was focused on supporting emergency services and communities affected by the bushfires, rather than division within the Liberal Party room.
"We're two days after Christmas and we see the Liberal Party focused on their disunity and lack of trust in each other — that's for them," she told 3AW. "I'm focused on our Victorians who are under fire threat and supporting our emergency services.
"I cannot emphasise enough how what is going on in the Liberal Party party room, two days after Christmas while parts of the state are under fire risk, is very much a matter for them."
30 December 2024. Part of the 'smokescreen'.
Extract from an ABC storey:
Deakin University associate professor John White has studied how species and ecosystems respond to external threats such as fire and climate change, particularly in the Grampians, since 2008.
Dr White expected the devastation caused by the fire to be felt for many years.
"This is about the fourth large fire in the Grampians in the past 20 years, which is a lot more than normal," he said.
Premier Allan, need I remind you that there is a Minister in your government responsible for as near as practicable risk-free management of the Grampians National Park, which must include protection of the adjoining landholders? Looks like failure to me and no doubt many others.
Whatever happened to continiual improvement that in modern history should have been benchmarked on the recommendations in the 2009 Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission, which included fuel management!
Tuesday, 24 October 2023
Bushfire and terror
While keeping in touch with developments in the Israel-Gaza military conflict and aftermath of the Hamas raid into Southern Israel I heard a relatively brief opinion of “terror”.
I searched the web for terror-related information and finally settled on a definition in the Macquarie Dictionary, Fifth Edition:
1. intense, sharp, overpowering fear: to be frantic with terror.
2. a feeling, instance or cause of intense fear.
Started me thinking about meaning and forms of terror and how it may be created and used to advantage.
Within the definition there is also a reference to a political group using violence to maintain or achieve supremacy. A recent example was the activities of Hamas on the ground inside Southern Israel.
The definition of terror-stricken is relevant:
- smitten with terror; terrified
No doubt many will have seen media coverage of people attending the music festival in Southern Israel running to escape the Hamas shooters.
As I write I'm hearing of a severe bushfire situation in Southern Queensland while the attention of our media is distracted by broader regional and economic situations affecting Australia.
This causes me to think about Australians in areas threatened by bushfire being urged to leave their homes and businesses — some Australian states, but thankfully not Victoria, have mandatory evacuation legislation.
For several years, emergency management agencies have urging people to leave for an ostensibly safer place when bushfire reaches a certain level of threat. But, are we told why?
Urged or mandatory evacuations can create risk situations where unattended properties are lost to bushfire, why, because most building fire loss is due to ember or firebrand attack!
How then is a decision made to advise voluntary or mandatory evacuation?
At one level of the Australian Fire Danger Rating System (AFDRS) people are advised to leave, then only a few minutes later informed that it’s too late to leave and to shelter in place. This must be confusing, leading to unnecessary fear in some. How do those who wish to leave to now learn that it’s too late to leave cope with this? It must be unnerving and potentially result in injury or death for some unprepared individual.
To the uninitiated, media coverage of bushfires in Australia can only serve to frighten. While some will argue that it's informative this ABC story is typical of the sensationalist reporting of bushfire.
The AFDRS classification “catastrophic” is a prediction of a catastrophic fire, an outcome that may never occur. Serves only to further frighten, even panic some people.
Why then did Australasian Fire Authorities Council (AFAC) decide on “catastrophic”, by definition an outcome rather than a warning such as Code Red that had previously applied in Victoria and why did emergency management decision makers in Victoria abandon Code Red?
Did those who settled on “catastrophic” do so through lack of knowledge of the English language or was intended to avoid agency or individual responsibility for loss by outsourcing the decision to the individual? Was there any realisation that "catastrophic" as a warning or generally in the narrative was bound to add to the level of fear of fire in the broader community?
Referring again to sensationalism in the media, Vladimir Lenin, former Chairman of the Council of People's Commissars of the Soviet Union, was well aware that use of the media was critical to him in seeking to control Russia: Control the media, control the people.
Do the emergency management agencies see the sensationalist media coverage of bushfire as assisting them in seeking to control rather than support the community to withstand bushfire and minimise loss?
How does AFAC and for that matter the NEMA see their roles in the community, working in partnership with the broader community to withstand bushfire or frightening it into running?
And, what of EMA in Victoria? It’s performance to date has been miserable e.g. Loch Sport, what was learned from the Wye River and Mallacoota experiences that I would argue saw the involved communities pushed aside, leaving town protection to fire brigade units, some of which travelled long long distances involving several hours.
To conclude, from the above story:
"Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk praised the collaborative efforts of firefighters from two states for saving the community, after winds blew the bushfire to the edges of the town late yesterday afternoon."
Has it ever occurred to Premier Palaszczuk to question Queenslanders responsible for emergency management how fires reached this stage, again?
Once again, Australia is indebted to legions of volunteer firefighters who leave the comfort and safety of home to go chase and round up the rampaging red steer.
As always, I would welcome your feedback.
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Friday, 17 February 2023
Bushfire—and what of Homeland Defence?
Today, the 40th Anniversary of the Ash Wednesday 1983 bushfires that took so many lives in Victoria and South Australia.
Some salient recollections
On that fateful day my involvement as CFA Regional Officer in Charge Region 14 commenced at 6.00 am with a telephone call from the Group Officer, Mount Macedon Group, informing me that there was a fire in unburnt bush at Cherokee in the Macedon Ranges and that it was "burning well".
At approximately 11.30 am I was informed that the Cherokee fire was "acting up" and that an additional six tankers had been despatched and that the Forests Commission were involved at the fire. By this time the day was warming up, with an already strong north wind.
At approximately 2.30 pm I received advice from the Forests Commission, Macedon office, that there was a fire at Trentham East and shortly after from the Daylesford office that the fire was heading south into the bush. The rest is history.
Responding to the experience of the Ash Wednesday bushfires in Victoria.
In the aftermath of the 1983 fires the CFA Board finally decided to address a statutory responsibility in the Country Fire Authority Act since its inception thirty-eight years ago — finally, an officer was appointed to establish a Fire Prevention Department. In those few years following the 1983 fires I consider CFA reached its short-lived zenith as it pushed Prevention at state and local government.
In the few years following Ash Wednesday considerable emphasis was placed on Prevention, but there was a lot of catching-up required and Suppression was always dominant when it came to the allocation of resources. For those holding the purse strings, there is much more kudos associated with the allocation of firefighting vehicles.
And what did we learn from Ash Wednesday 1983?
As a learning experiences Ash Wednesday and the major fires that have followed, and as recent as the Mallacoota fire of December 2019, Victoria continues to experience bushfire losses that indicate to me that little was learned from those fires.
Bushfire loss could be significantly reduced with better community understanding of bushfire and how to survive — it should be well understood in the fire agencies that the major cause of housing loss is ember or firebrand attack.
Some will remember a fire that occurred in the Lancefield area of Victoria in early October 2015 that spread from an earlier DELWP fuel reduction burn-off. Premier Andrews was quick for the government to accept responsibility for the fire and promised compensation for people who could have done more to protect their assets.
Here is one example of a house clearly lost from the effect of fire spreading from ember or firebrand attack:
Of the photographs Plate 2 is a dwelling on the north side of Three Chain Road, Lancefield prior to the fire; Plate 3 and 4 are the remains of same dwelling after the fire — look through the trees to see the green beyond and the only shrubs burnt were abutting the dwelling; and Plate 5 was typical of the adjoining the forest that showed no sign of crown fire.
With only small patches of dead grass and fallen leaves beneath trees burning, it was obvious that unprepared buildings and rubbish down the back yard succumbed to ember or firebrand attack.
No doubt a blanket one-size-all-approach to urging people to leave their homes adds to housing loss.
Lancefield, a fire that largely due to the fickleness of the weather escaped from a fuel reduction burn a few days after it was lit.
And what of homeland defence?
From The Australian today, 16 February 2023:
"[Prime Minister] Anthony Albanese has been handed a blue print to prepare Australia for a potential war with China, recommending a rapid boost to long-range strike capabilities, the urgent acquisition of killer drones, and a major increase in the nation's naval firepower".
It's not all that long ago that the Australian Defence Force needed to come to the rescue of people in Mallacoota in the aftermath of a fire that roared out of the bush and trapped holiday makers and residents in the town. Necessary due to the failure of a government agency managing land it was responsible for so that it did not endanger people and their assets.
With our military capability to be strengthened to keep an aggressor from our shores, what about our vulnerability onshore? Poorly managed tracts of public land, such as that which overwhelmed Mallacoota, must be assessed as to the risk they pose and treated accordingly. We can't afford to have our defence force being distracted to bail out a government shirking its statutory and moral responsibilities that ultimately place us at risk of fire by an evildoer behind the lines.
As always, I would welcome your feedback.
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Wednesday, 3 November 2021
Crooks, cheats, swindlers, hallmarks of the Andrews government
I soon realised that there were related issues that needed to be addressed. Unlike a government I don't have access to publicly funded spin departments, and journalists or talking heads, most of whom flit from lightbulb to lightbulb like moths and can't be relied on to dig deep on an issue e.g. management — or should I say mismanagement — of the COVID pandemic across Australia. I do my own investigative research to endeavour to expose the truth and I'm not rushing to get subscriptions or suck up to a politician of any stripe.
Since my last posting on 3 August 2020 a lot has come along to raise my concern, but I'll first confine myself to Victoria.
Part of my preparation for this posting has been to gain a better understanding of the meaning or application of certain words: crook; crooked; cheat; dishonest; fraud; honest; and swindle, according to the MACQUARIE DICTIONARY FIFTH EDITION published in 2009.
Maybe I should be a little more charitable and add "not fit for purpose" when calling out senior management and responsible Ministers.
I commenced my 13 July 2016 posting "The nature of bushfire Part 3 ... how fire moves across the land" with a discourse on a then recent visit to Berlin to learn about the rise and fall of the Wall or as the now defunct East German government or GDR named it, the "Anti-Fascist Protective Wall":
Chilling in many respects and I can relate the behaviour of the dictator Eric Honecker and his predecessors and their unelected functionaries to the behaviour of some “public servants” back home, but maybe a little more about this later. However, I imagine there are “victims” of Victoria’s Bushfire Management Overlay (BMO) and other aspects of wildfire management or I should say mismanagement in various areas of Australia, who would see some connection.
Never did I imagine that I'd see myself living behind a Wall, in fact two Walls: one around Greater Melbourne and the other around the State of Victoria, but that's what happened to Victorians for much of 2020-21.
Plate 1 shows a remnant of the Berlin Wall that divided people and set one against the other in the former East Berlin, just like in Victoria. Plate 2 a contemporary view of controlled entry into and exit from Victoria at Wodonga from the NSW side, with due respect to Victoria Police members only following the CHO's orders.
Fed up with the failure of emergency management to prevent or at least minimise loss in a number of areas on 3 August 2020 I posted "Why people die from wildfire — failure to learn and adapt" . A now very relevant extract from that posting:
COVID-19
With EMV involved with COVID-19 in Victoria, is attention also being given to planning for the next wildfire season taking into account lessons that should have been learned from the 2019/20 fires?
As I understand the role, the Emergency Management Commissioner has overall responsibility for emergency management in Victoria, be it wildfire or a dead whale that attracts sharks to a beach, which brings me to the COVID-19 pandemic.
With the EMV "Victorian action plan for influenza pandemic" published in August 2015 I find this disturbing:
1.8 Review The action plan is current at the time of publication [August 2015] and remains in effect until modified or superseded.
The action plan will be reviewed and updated every three years or sooner if it is applied in a major emergency or exercise, or if there is a change to relevant legislation or arrangements. [my emphasis]
Almost two years to the day a review is overdue. Were there no lessons to be learned from pandemics, etc e.g. Ebola that occurred elsewhere that we could have learned from? Or relevant lessons to be learned from management of wildfire in Victoria since 2009? Note that the responsible minister is Lisa Neville.
Sub-part 3.3 Consequence management is worth reading, too. Considering the scrambling to cope with rising case numbers and deaths suggests that Department of Health & Human Services Victoria has questions to answer. A deathly dereliction of duty? Note that the responsible minister is Jenny Mikakos.
Mikakos has gone, her fate described by some as having been "thrown under a bus". How long before a bus with the Honourable Lisa Neville's name on it comes along or maybe she'll live up to her Honourable title and resign, though little chance of that I suspect.
Taken at the 11th hour on 11 November 2008, the Cobbers statue at the WW1 Fromelles Memorial Park.
On the eve of Red Poppy Day in Australia, genuine Australians did not go to their deaths for a crooked government willing to do anything to remain in office in Victoria!
As always, I would welcome your feedback.
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