Thursday, 1 May 2025

Bushfire: Failure of governments

I started preparing this posting shortly before Cyclone Alfred but put it on hold to see what learnings should ultimately be apparent and picked up by the emergency management agencies at all levels of government.

This blog posting is headed “Bushfire: Failure of governments” — I have assessed the performance of governments and their responsible agencies going back as far as the Ash Wednesday 1983 bushfires, particularly as they impacted Victoria, as I consider those fires to be the modern historical base of major fires in this State.

Included in the posting is a reference to the report of the Bushfire Review Committee. It’s an interest read, including much about warnings, evacuation and sheltering — and acknowledges that some people might choose to remain and defend their homes.

And what did we learn from the cyclone? Lots of instructions were being given by emergency management agencies on what to do i.e. others were considering the welfare of communities considered to be at risk.

In theory fine for a cyclone but a bushfire is different!

Below in this posting people in Pomonal have expressed a desire to remain with their homes, and what are the emergency management agencies doing to help them prepare and support them if they are again confronted with bushfire, other than urging them to flee?

Out of the cyclone response was this statement from Queensland Premier reported in The Australian, “David Crisafulli’s bid to replace Covid-era fear with facts in Cyclone Alfred response”, dated 10 March 2025:

Mr Crisafulli insisted that households be given accurate, timely information and, wherever possible, be allowed to make their own decisions on what to do.

The messaging had to be precise and locally focused, reflecting Mr Crisafulli’s nuanced communications strategy during the cyclone emergency.

His crisp, businesslike manner was new to Queenslanders: less of the emotive language and hand-holding that past Labor premiers Anna Bligh and Annastacia Palaszczuk had deployed, more -emphasis on imparting the nuts and bolts information people needed to know about the events unfolding around them.

On Sunday, the LNP man donned a suit and tie to deliver televised updates on the unfolding disaster. “Instead of a top-down ¬approach of ordering people what to do, this has been about providing information from the bottom up, addressing challenges with the agencies and councils, and providing clear and detailed local messaging,” one senior government source said.

One example, the AFL was seeking advice from the Queensland Government on whether or not to play football in Brisbane on the Saturday, Crisafulli’s response was here are the facts, AFL, and you make the decision.

It's now approximately 11 weeks on from the 42nd anniversary of the 16 February (Ash Wednesday) 1983 bushfires in Victoria and South Australia and its worth looking back.

Plate 1
Record of Ash Wednesday 1983 fires produced by the Herald and Weekly Times Limited
shows what remained of the main street of Macedon after the impact of the 1983 fire.

By this time Victoria was well into recording the details of its losses, including the 47 human lives taken by the fires. Reasonable to expect that the government's soon to be established Bushfire Review Committee members were assembling their thoughts and modus operandi – S.I.Miller, Chair; AVM W.Carter, Deputy Chairman and R.G.Stephens, Member.

And, what have we learned from the fires, in my opinion little or nothing if we consider the two recent Grampians fires.

A story by the ABC concerning declining mental health in Pomonal in the aftermath of the fires:

"There's a lot of stuff that's been suppressed over the past year, so that when we're back into the fire situation again it can be quite traumatic for people who lost properties or suffered through the Pomonal fires."

This so-far short year I've posted The Ides of Christmas in Victoria: Bushfire and the accompanying 'smokescreen' that is principally about difficulties obtaining bushfire insurance and Houses save people and people save houses about bushfire evacuation.

How's this for resilience A story by the ABC about Pomonal residents vowing to stay despite two bushfires in 12 months:

It's a stark contrast to 12 months ago when a dry lightning strike started a fire that ripped through the town, destroying 45 homes.

This summer fire again threatened the town, reigniting the fears and realities that come with living in the shadow of a national park.

Some residents have left, but many have stayed and are keen to rebuild their homes and lives.

They say the community is all the stronger for having survived two bushfires in 10 months.

To accommodate these people the emergency management agencies at all levels must move away from the current approach of frightening people from their homes to supporting them.

Plate 2

From a story in The Australian "Disasters 'More intense, More Frequent'"
dated 29 December 2024

Anthony Albanese flags natural disasters becoming more frequent and intense: Story in The Australian, Saturday, March 22nd, 2025, following PM Albanese's and Premier Allan's visit to inspect the Pomonal fire.

"We live in a country which has harsh conditions," he [Mr Albanese] said.

"It has always had, it has always had these extreme weather events, but the truth is they are becoming more frequent and more intense and that has been something that I have (seen) as Prime Minister for 2½ years and I have been to natural disasters and extreme weather events in every single state and territory of the country and that says something about this frequency."

NATURAL DISASTER

Let’s look at natural disasters as referred to by Mr Albanese.

What is a natural disaster?

There are many definitions of natural disasters and some get into natural hazards. The following from Wikipedia is consistent with PM Albanese’s reference to natural disasters:

A natural disaster is the very harmful impact on a society or community brought by natural phenomenon or hazard. Some examples of natural hazards include avalanches, droughts, earthquakes, floods, heat waves, landslides - including submarine landslides, tropical cyclones, volcanic activity and wildfires.

Let’s deal with bushfire (or wildfire). Physics and experience tells us that the harmful effect of bushfire can be mitigated by managing the fuel e.g. fuel reduction burning involving otherwise unmanageable broad areas of forest.

PM Albanese and his sidekick Premier Allan have been handwringers for the cameras in the aftermath at fire events such as Pomonal and in Albanese’s case the recent Queensland floods, but consistently failed to reduce the impact of the problem. Consequently, they are both frauds when it involves mitigating the effects of bushfire and other forms of emergency.

We Australians deserve better than Albanese and Allan controlling emergency management!

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Tuesday, 28 January 2025

Houses save people and people save houses

Plate 1

Important to consider the one-size-fits-all leave early policy and ask the question; how many homes and businesses have been lost as a result and can it be improved? Indeed, what is the basis of the advice?

In recent history there are examples of individuals who’ve stayed behind to save their own home and those of several of their neighbours. Here's recent example from Los Angeles:

How one man defied evacuation orders to stay and save his home

He said he wished the Los Angeles Fire Department put in the same effort as he did. "When I was out here, hosing the house down and getting ready and when the houses started to burn, I didn't see one single fire truck out here at all. Zero.

"If they had had some fire trucks and just put a squirt here, a squirt there and kept an eye on things, all these houses would be here now. I'm telling you right now. I saw it with my own eyeballs. All these houses.

"The houses behind me they're all gone. They started with one little spark, one little small fire. They just squirted those out, had a few people out there, they'd all be here now."

From the story by RTE News.
Plate 2
Black Thursday, February 6th, 1851, by William Strutt. On display at the State Library of Victoria's Pictures collection.

AUSTRALIA

Within Australia and certainly in Victoria there is anecdotal and other evidence of people staying and succeeding in protecting their homes.

Deplorable that the desire of people to protect their homes is not really acknowledged by the fire services and people supported accordingly rather than scaring them into leaving — some will want to stay and defend their homes.

“But in many minds, staying to defend your house is the Australian test of grit: it’s proof that you deserve to be living in the bush in the first place.”

From the book "the arsonist A Mind on Fire, by Chloe Hooper, Penguin Random House Australia Pty Ltd, 2018."

Then there is the harmful impact on insurance availability to consider.

Whatever happened to continual improvement that in modern history should have at least been benchmarked on the recommendations in the 2009 Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission, which included fuel management!

While finalising this posting I became aware that the evacuation of Dimboola was being urged. Reasonable to ask, had those responsible for urging the evacuation ever been to Dimboola and assessed its vulnerability to bushfire? I am reminded of the Maui Wildfires – December 23, 2024 when considering the loss potential at Dimboola.

Finally, Plate 2 (above) would be a fair representation of a panic-stricken populace fleeing a bushfire — the emergency management agencies and the media do nothing to dispel the fear.

Wednesday, 8 January 2025

The Ides of Christmas in Victoria: Bushfire and the accompanying 'smokescreen'

It's happening again! In more recent times, first, Wye River-Separation Creek in 2015; Mallacoota in 2019-20; and now the Grampians — both Mallacoota and Grampians fires causing such havoc, cost and loss were burning in National Parks.

People being virtually ordered from their homes and businesses in a broad-brush approach with seemingly little or no consideration of the actual vulnerability of those structures.

But first, Western Victoria, another example of how Victorians rely on the indefatigable CFA volunteers, with due respect to all the others involved in or supporting the firefight.

Plate 1
A firefighter walks past a home burning from the Mountain Fire in Camarillo, California. Wildfires are contributing to increasing insurance costs. (David McNew/Getty Images)

You might wonder why my interest in the Mountain Fire in Camarillo, California (Plate 1) but here's a story in The Washington Post 16 December 2024 about obtaining insurance for a family home that includes wildfire (bushfire in Australia if you prefer), certainly relevant in Australia. An extract from the story:

The small mountain town, a short drive from Lake Tahoe, offered the former preschool teacher and her husband, a carpenter, a shot at becoming middle class by escaping crushing housing costs near Santa Cruz, California.

“We moved up here for a better life,” she said in a phone interview. “For two or three years, we got that taste.” The small mountain town, a short drive from Lake Tahoe, offered the former preschool teacher and her husband, a carpenter, a shot at becoming middle class by escaping crushing housing costs near Santa Cruz, California. “We moved up here for a better life,” she said in a phone interview. “For two or three years, we got that taste.”

Then the insurance bills came. In 2017, the couple paid $1,100 to insure their small cabin. But since then, nine of California’s 10 largest wildfires have erupted, sending the insurance market into turmoil. Three insurers have dropped her in three years. This year, a basic policy from the public FAIR plan, the state-run insurer of last resort, and supplemental private insurance will cost Temple $6,000. It’s likely to rise again. “Now we’re back to watching each paycheck,” she said, “and budgeting for everything.”

Temple is among the many Americans watching their hold on homeownership slip away as insurance costs balloon beyond their ability to pay. “This is our first house. I don’t want to leave,” said Temple, struggling to keep her composure. “I try not to look too far into the future. I get scared.”

The full story can be reached through this link:

Insuring your home has never been harder. Here’s how to do it.

AUSTRALIA

Difficulties in obtaining insurance associated with bushfire risk is also being experienced in Australia. From Bellrock:

Policyholders who have property located in ‘bushfire prone areas’ (usually classified by local council), are likely to experience insurers having less appetite to insure their property. This may mean that insurers who are satisfied with the business operations, construction and risk management controls of the premises will be unwilling to deploy their capacity if the area is deemed to be a high-risk bushfire zone. Other insurers may look to use alternative strategies in order to increase the acceptability of risk, most commonly by way of increasing premiums or deductibles. This puts policyholders into a difficult position as they are unable to manage this exposure in any meaningful way. Installation of fire breaks and maintaining clearance will assist to a degree, however, wildfires are often unpredictable in nature and their severity is very dependent on prevailing weather conditions.

and

If underwriting losses exceed returns, insurers will cease to provide insurance cover at an affordable price. We have already witnessed this in parts of the world such as the USA where cover for bushfire in parts of California is unavailable except via a state scheme known as The California Fair Access to Insurance Requirements (FAIR). That scheme provides very basic last resort cover at a very high price point. Government in Australia, at all levels, is hesitant to provide any such scheme as they themselves are already carrying significant exposure on their own property portfolio.

Click here for the full Bellrock article.

Important to consider the one-size-fits-all leave early policy and ask the question; how many homes and businesses have been otherwise avoidably lost as a result and can it be improved? Indeed, what is the basis of the advice?

Then there’s the posting of warnings. It must have been confusing, indeed frightening for some as the plethora of warnings and areas they applied to were issued over days. Again, can it be improved?

Responsibility and accountability

Extract from an ABC story:

Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan said she was focused on supporting emergency services and communities affected by the bushfires, rather than division within the Liberal Party room.

"We're two days after Christmas and we see the Liberal Party focused on their disunity and lack of trust in each other — that's for them," she told 3AW. "I'm focused on our Victorians who are under fire threat and supporting our emergency services.

"I cannot emphasise enough how what is going on in the Liberal Party party room, two days after Christmas while parts of the state are under fire risk, is very much a matter for them."

Click here for the full ABC story.
Plate 2
Prime Minster Anthony Albanese and Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan announce 13 weeks pay for those in need. Picture: NewsWire / David Crosling ... From a story "Disasters 'More Intense, More Frequent'", The Australian,
30 December 2024. Part of the 'smokescreen'.

Extract from an ABC storey:

'Habitat will be lost, plants will die'

Deakin University associate professor John White has studied how species and ecosystems respond to external threats such as fire and climate change, particularly in the Grampians, since 2008.

Dr White expected the devastation caused by the fire to be felt for many years.

"This is about the fourth large fire in the Grampians in the past 20 years, which is a lot more than normal," he said.

Click here for the full ABC story.

Premier Allan, need I remind you that there is a Minister in your government responsible for as near as practicable risk-free management of the Grampians National Park, which must include protection of the adjoining landholders? Looks like failure to me and no doubt many others.

Whatever happened to continiual improvement that in modern history should have been benchmarked on the recommendations in the 2009 Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission, which included fuel management!