While continuing to consider the “Review of the initial response to the 2015 Wye River-Jamieson Track fire” by the Inspector-General for Emergency Management it’s become obvious that a lack of bushfire behaviour knowledge is seriously inhibiting our ability to prevent loss.
I've already begun to express my opinion on the worth of the “review" in my blog posting on Sunday, 28 February 2016 and Saturday, 5 March 2016 and question the qualifications of the Inspector-General for Emergency Management to carry out the review.
Promotion of the government's "Leave early and Live" policy is deeply flawed in that it urges people to leave their homes and business and risk losing them, but does not tell them why other than if they stay they'll likely end up dead!
At the top of the on-line "Leave early and Live" page:
Leave early
The decision about when to leave is the most important decision you will make. Check the Fire Danger Rating (FDR) for your location every day. When the FDR reaches your trigger point, you need to activate your plan.
The government then promotes its Fire Danger Rating system as a means of the community informing itself about the level of fire danger in their area.
At the top of the on-line "Fire Danger Ratings" page:
About Fire Danger Ratings
The Fire Danger Rating tells you how dangerous a fire would be if one started.
It helps you to know when conditions are dangerous enough to put your bushfire survival plan in to action.
Ratings are forecast using Bureau of Meteorology data for up to four days in advance, based on weather and other environmental conditions such as fuel load.
The rating is your prompt to take action to stay safe.
But nowhere is there advice for the public about "how dangerous a fire would be if one started" and what to expect when it arrives — many people place their trust in the government for factual advice on how to deal with bushfire and to leave them uninformed is irresponsible.
My Thursday, 13 March 2014 posting "Understanding the fire danger rating system" was devoted to explaining the rating system used across Australia.
Amongst other matters covered in the posting, the following explanation:
The Fire Danger Rating system is graduated according to the FDI:
Rating FDI
|
|||||
Code Red 100 +
Extreme 75 – 100
Severe 50
– 75
Very High 25
– 50
High 12 – 25
Low – Moderate 0 – 12
|
|||||
And on it goes. Further on-line information from the CFA "Stay aware of the Fire Danger Rating and know what to do." Note the information alongside "Very High", "High" and "Low–Moderate".
In a story "Bushfire-proof houses burn down in Wye River and Separation Creek as experts cast serious doubt on effectiveness of building standards" published in the 25 February edition of The Age, the Emergency Management Commissioner is quoted:
What did the Emergency Management Commissioner mean with the comment "A fire in Wye River of that intensity"?
Examination of the weather recorded just up the road at the BOM Aireys Inlet recording station on Christmas Day reveals that the Fire Danger Index only reached 50 once during the day. In the column headed "Fire" it can be seen that the FDI sat within High or lower on CFA's "Stay aware of the Fire Danger Rating and know what to do." advice.
How many homes of permanent residents of Wye River–Separation Creek could have been saved if those people had been advised well in advance of the day of the fire on what to expect and how to defend their homes, rather than being urged to leave town?
The scope of loss due to bushfire is well-covered in this ABC News story "What we lose to the flames–The true cost of bushfires to our community." be it Wye River–Separation Creek, Lorne, Daylesford, or Yarloop, WA.
We should and can do much better than this when it comes to bushfire management, but reforming emergency management arrangements as advocated in Natural Disasters in Australia: Reforming mitigation, relief and recovery arrangements is not helped by the Victorian government's attitude, given the Emergency Management Commissioner's comment quoted in The Age story, which seems to advocate that every level of bushfire requires people to flee.
Food for thought, has the government hitched itself to the right star?
Living in a community that is one of the 52 Townships named in the RC into the Black Saturday fires , it is interesting to note that since thus RC the area has been renamed ????
ReplyDeleteThe entrance to the community has a very large Fire Notice advising resident's and visitors that they are entering a designated " fire danger " area !
There are no EWS , POLR , EWS . Most of the residents seem to be unaware or simply live with this situation !
When I enquirer as to why there's are no advanced warnings or places to shelter ( fire or flood ) , only a single one lane carriageway in and out of the area , it seems that emergency reaction is lacking , because the community is not driving chandelier it's not going to happen ?
The lack of direction to drive change seems to be about the " cost " , it seems sinage is the cheaper option !
As in your blogs you point out that a policy of dialogue outweighs any n the ground practical programs !
We live on the edge of a disaster ,mths current " leave and leave early " is a slogan driven program that over time looses its impact , I wonder when the authority's realise this it will to late for many that are already confused with. FDP , that have little to do with our changing seasons !!!
When will the Goverment of the day realise that a simple campaign of slogans and no real work on the ground will become undone , trying to come back to a more hands on approach will confuse the public even more !!!
John
ReplyDeleteAgreed. Having worked with you in creating the new Municipal Fire Prevention Plan required for Council under the CFA Act there seems to be a number of things that could have been done around Wye River and Separation Creek that did not occur. The fire notices that are sent out by Councils annually and the requirement to clean up all blocks, not only vacant ones, is important. Removal of vegetation clearly identified as weeds in the Council weed register [e.g. sweet pottostrum (hope the spelling is correct)] and maintaining the sites is very important. Some Councils seem to give property owners the false impression that a planning permit is required for all vege removal when clearly it is not if owners check the CFA 10/50 vege management information. In this area the issue of the landslip overlay (Erosion Management Overlay) is often used to confuse or imply a PP is required for the maintenance above to which I referred. There is a level of mis-information out there in this context as well as others. Maintenance of the exterior of a dwelling built to AS 3959 is important regardless and to deter people from planting vegetation close to the house. It sounds logical and common sense but as we know from a working knowledge of this area logic and sense seem to disappear when the emotion of bush-fire is raised.
Steve Ryan.